Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM TUESDAY...

PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH MAX
HEATING THEN WEAKEN AFTER 6 PM. APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL SHARPEN THE 850MB TROUGH ANALYZED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SHARPENING SHOULD FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN (BUT NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE) AFTER 11 PM. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. NAM WRF AND SREF MORE ADAMANT WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRIER/STABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
COMPARED TO THE SLOWER GFS. USING A BLEND OR A NOD TOWARD THE GFS
WOULD JUSTIFY SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH WITH POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. EXPECT A UNIFORM TEMP FIELD WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWARD SHIFT...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NOSE SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC. THE
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL AID TO DIMINISH/END CONVECTIVE THREAT AND
IN THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
FIELD MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.   MIN TEMPS MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/SC BORDER BY
THURSDAY MORNING....AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PWS
FALL BELOW ONE INCH.  12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A FASTER PUSH OF THE
FRONT...MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL FORECASTS.  ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF
FIELDS SHOW PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...INCLINED
TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY GIVEN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...FALLING PWS...AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP.  HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR
NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHERLY AND COOLER LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGIME.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE REFRESHING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

A PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE
OVER MUCH OF NC.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST CUTS INTO AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE OBX AND BERMUDA.  THE ECMWF IS ONE THE WESTERN SIDE OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS IS TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK..AND THUS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED.   WITH CENTRAL NC
CENTERED SQUARELY IN THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE
WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUD OVER AND
TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S).  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT ALONG THE
EAST COAST...LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE BY MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST OVER THE SE HALF OF THE REGION OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY
OF THE STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIATING
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT E-SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONG PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-301000-
EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT OR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-301000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

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