Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
333 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 309 PM TUESDAY...

PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS BECOME ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TROUGH MAX
HEATING THEN WEAKEN AFTER 6 PM. APPROACH OF MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL SHARPEN THE 850MB TROUGH ANALYZED
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SHARPENING SHOULD FOCUS
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES BY EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN (BUT NOT
TOTALLY DISSIPATE) AFTER 11 PM. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SE ACROSS THE AREA.

BY WEDNESDAY...MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LIE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 64. NAM WRF AND SREF MORE ADAMANT WITH THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DRIER/STABLE AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA
COMPARED TO THE SLOWER GFS. USING A BLEND OR A NOD TOWARD THE GFS
WOULD JUSTIFY SOLID CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH WITH POPS AT OR BELOW 20 PERCENT
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64. EXPECT A UNIFORM TEMP FIELD WEDNESDAY AS
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WILL LIMIT
INSOLATION. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTHWARD SHIFT...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL NOSE SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC. THE
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL AID TO DIMINISH/END CONVECTIVE THREAT AND
IN THE DISSIPATION OF CLOUD COVERAGE. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WIND
FIELD MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH
ESPECIALLY AT LOCALES THAT EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY.   MIN TEMPS MID 60S NW TO NEAR 70 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM/THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE NC/SC BORDER BY
THURSDAY MORNING....AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PWS
FALL BELOW ONE INCH.  12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A FASTER PUSH OF THE
FRONT...MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODEL FORECASTS.  ALTHOUGH MODEL QPF
FIELDS SHOW PRECIP ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA...INCLINED
TO KEEP THURSDAY DRY GIVEN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE...FALLING PWS...AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP.  HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS NEAR
NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE NORTHERLY AND COOLER LOW LEVEL FLOW
REGIME.  SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  CONTINUED ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR
AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO A MUCH MORE REFRESHING
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...

A PLEASANT 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND ON TAP WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE
OVER MUCH OF NC.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD
TOWARD THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...WHILE A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST CUTS INTO AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
THE OBX AND BERMUDA.  THE ECMWF IS ONE THE WESTERN SIDE OF MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE ENTIRE TROUGH AXIS IS TROUGH AXIS IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK..AND THUS THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED.   WITH CENTRAL NC
CENTERED SQUARELY IN THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE
WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH LITTLE CLOUD OVER AND
TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S).  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST OF THE AREA...AND THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT ALONG THE
EAST COAST...LEADING TO FURTHER WARMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
LOW TO MID 90S POSSIBLE BY MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM TUESDAY...

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 2 PM
WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
GREATEST OVER THE SE HALF OF THE REGION OR ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 40KTS MAY OCCUR IN VICINITY
OF THE STORMS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INITIATING
THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL DRIFT E-SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KFAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONG PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS AND GREATLY DIMINISH THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

NCZ028-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-301000-
EDGECOMBE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT OR CONTINUOUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THAT WILL RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-301000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
213 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AS WELL AS CREEKS AND
STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMMEDIATELY TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

NCZ073>075-292000-
STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALBEMARLE...TROY...SOUTHERN PINES
245 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 4 PM...

AT 240 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR ALBEMARLE...TO CARTHAGE
AND VASS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. IF A THUNDERSTORM MOVES NEARBY OR OVERHEAD...
REMAIN INDOORS. DO NOT USE ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES UNTIL A
THUNDERSTORM HAS PASSED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

DJF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
306 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOLDSBORO               35.37N 77.98W
06/29/2010                   WAYNE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN GOLDSBORO

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE GOLDSBORO         35.39N 77.92W
06/29/2010                   WAYNE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER.

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKINGHAM              34.94N 79.76W
06/29/2010                   RICHMOND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN AT OLD SALEM AND ELLINGTON

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNE ROCKINGHAM        34.97N 79.74W
06/29/2010                   RICHMOND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE TREE DOWN NICHOLSON RD AT ROBERDEL RD

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKINGHAM              34.94N 79.76W
06/29/2010                   RICHMOND           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTS A LARGE OAK TREE AND POWERLINES
            DOWN. EMERGENCY OFFICIALS REPORT NUMEROUS OTHER TREES
            DOWN IN ROCKINGHAM.

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOLDSBORO               35.37N 77.98W
06/29/2010                   WAYNE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF POWERLINES AND LIMBS DOWN IN GOLDSBORO.

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOLDSBORO               35.37N 77.98W
06/29/2010                   WAYNE              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME SIZE HAIL IN GOLDSBORO

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE GOLDSBORO         35.39N 77.92W
06/29/2010                   WAYNE              NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            CAR STRANDED IN HIGH WATER.

&&

SMITH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

NCZ038-039-292030-
DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS DAVIDSON AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

AT 336 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GORDONTOWN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WAS INTENSIFYING.
OTHER STRONG STORMS WERE LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF ARCHDALE... AND JUST
WEST OF LIBERTY... ALSO MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE
GORDONTOWN...DENTON...MARTHA... AND ASHEBORO.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. THESE STORMS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS WHENEVER YOU SEE
LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER... AND STAY INSIDE UNTIL THE STORM HAS
MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8022 3589 7959 3556 7958 3557 8022
      3559 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 274DEG 19KT 3571 8019

GIH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

NCZ073-074-083-292045-
ANSON-MONTGOMERY-STANLY-
342 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY...STANLY AND ANSON COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 341 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PEKIN...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH OF TROY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
OTHER STRONG STORMS EXTENDED ACROSS NORWOOD... MOUNT GILEAD... AND
NEAR CANDOR.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PEKIN AND CANDOR.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL.

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARLY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. STRONG WINDS ARE
CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREES AND BLOWING AROUND TRASH CANS...
LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR OBJECTS. THESE STORMS ARE
ALSO PRODUCING DEADLY LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS WHENEVER YOU SEE
LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER... AND STAY INSIDE UNTIL THE STORM HAS
MOVED WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 8026 3543 7975 3535 7973 3534 7972
      3531 7971 3527 7971 3517 7963 3517 7977
      3517 7986 3516 7988 3515 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 256DEG 27KT 3523 7989

GIH