Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
406 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

...A STRONG STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
EVENING...

SOME ISOLD TS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG A WELL-DEVELOPED MOISTURE BOUNDARY
RUNNING FROM KTAD TO KLAA CURRENTLY. WITH DEWS AROUND 50 DEG S OF
THE BOUNDARY...CAPE AROUND 1000...AND BULK SHEARS 30-35 KTS...COULD
SEE A STRONG TO SVR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE. PRIMARY
MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR...BUT WITH BOUNDARY A SUPERCELL COULD
ALSO OCCUR. HAVE KEPT SVR WORDING E OF I-25 AND S OF HGWY 50...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR WILL KEEP STORMS
FROM DEVELOPING...AND HAVE DROPPED POPS TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SRN
AND SERN ZONES. EVEN MORE DRY TOMORROW...WITH SWRLY FLOW INCREASING.
ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY TOMORROW OVR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY LIKELY...WITH
SW WINDS GUSTING IN THE 30-40 PLUS MPH RANGE. H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO THE
UPPER TEENS...LEADING TO TEMPS IN THE MID 90S OVR THE PLAINS...AND
80S OVR THE RATON...SERN PLAINS...AND PALMER DVD. SHOULD STAY DRY
EVEN OVR THE MTNS TOMORROW WITH LOW LAYER RH. ROSE

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL EASTERN SLOPES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...
...GENERALLY HOT WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO...CREATING A HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A POSSIBLE
MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER WITH UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE AND SIGNIFICANT
REVERSE SHEAR...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TELLER COUNTY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EL PASO COUNTY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  FARTHER
SOUTH...THE MOUNTAIN STABLE LAYER DOESN'T LOOK NEAR AS GOOD
BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF REVERSE SHEAR.  SO...WENT AHEAD AND PUT
A HIGH WIND WATCH UP FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN SLOPE AREA.  THIS WATCH
IS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
AREAS...WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR.

RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE RETURNING TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
TOMORROW AND REMAIN THERE FOR A FEW DAYS.  THE PATTERN WE ARE
ENTERING WILL SUPPORT WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
VALUE.  WITH FUELS IN THE VALLEY STILL AT CRITICALLY DRY
LEVELS...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND QUITE POSSIBLY FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ASIDE FROM THE WIND AND FIRE DANGER...LOOKS LIKE HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...WE WILL LIKELY STILL BE DEALING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT COULD COME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SENDING A SURGE OF UPSLOPE FLOW SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS.  BUT...THIS IS NOT LOOKING TOO CERTAIN YET SO
STAY TUNED. LW

&&

.AVIATION...SOME ISOLD TS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY E OF
I-25 AND S OF HGWY 50. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH
THESE STORMS. SHOULD STAY VFR AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH WED.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WED FROM THE S TO SW WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR COZ074-075-079>088.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR COZ224.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ224.

&&

44/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
659 AM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-161300-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
659 AM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH AT TIMES...HAZARDOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO AND
KANSAS BORDER...ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
LAS ANIMAS...BACA...PROWERS...BENT...OTERO...PUEBLO AND HUERFANO
COUNTIES.

77/34

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
526 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

COZ093-094-097-160015-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS
VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
526 PM MDT TUE JUN 15 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
  NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO
  SOUTHEASTERN OTERO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO

AT 523 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGBEE...OR 28 MILES SOUTH
OF LA JUNTA...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HIGBEE.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

KAM