Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Pueblo, CO

402 
WGUS75 KPUB 312327
FFSPUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
527 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COC061-099-010130-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100801T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PROWERS CO-KIOWA CO-
527 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA AND
EASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

AT 522 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN 
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...WITH THE HIGHEST 
AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH OF HIGHWAYS 50 AND 89...SOUTH OF HOLLY AND 
GRANADA...IN SOUTHERN PROWERS COUNTY. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BRISTOL...GRANADA...HARTMAN AND HOLLY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
BIG SANDY CREEK...PAULS ARROYO...ARKANSAS RIVER...PLUM CREEK...NORTH
BEAR CREEK...NORTH BUTTE CREEK...TWO BUTTE CREEK...LITTLE BEAR
CREEK...DRY CREEK...BUFFALO CREEK...CHEYENNE CREEK...WEST HORSE
CREEK...DURKEE CREEK...SOUTH PLUM CREEK...NORTH PLUM CREEK...BOGGS
CREEK...COTTONWOOD CREEK AND WEST WILD HORSE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 10204 3765 10239 3764 10240 3764 10245
      3840 10247 3840 10206

$$

133 
WGUS75 KPUB 010021
FFSPUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COC061-099-010035-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-100801T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
PROWERS CO-KIOWA CO-
621 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIOWA
AND EASTERN PROWERS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA.  
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING 
TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3764 10204 3765 10239 3764 10240 3764 10245
      3840 10247 3840 10206

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
315 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...

MONSOON REMAINS IN FULL SWING.  AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER KIOWA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES IS TRAINING ALONG A BOUNDARY WITH NEAR 70 DEWPOINTS
BEHIND IT.  SO...BIG FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS OVER EASTERN KIOWA AND
PROWERS COUNTIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.  SO FAR...ONLY REPORTS FROM
PROWERS COMMUNICATIONS OF FLOODED FIELDS 4 TO 5 MILES EAST OF LAMAR
ALONG HIGHWAY 50.  FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA THROUGH 430 PM.  OTHER CONCERNS OVER THE CHALK AND COTTONWOOD
CREEK BASINS...WEST OF NATHROP AND BUENA VISTA...AT THE PRESENT
TIME.  NOT REALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THAT AREA RIGHT NOW...BUT JUST
ENOUGH TO HAVE ME CONCERNED...IN LIGHT OF THE FLOODING THAT OCCURRED
OUT THAT WAY YESTERDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN...THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OFF OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS...ALONG AND WEST
OF THE INTERSTATE...FROM KTAD TO WALSENBURG.  THIS AREA RECEIVED
SOME HEAVY RAIN YESTERDAY SO RUNOFF WILL BE QUICK AND EFFICIENT.
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
ALSO BE UNDER THE GUN THIS EVENING...AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH AND STEERING WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.  WHO GETS THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
DEPEND ON RANDOM PROCESSES OF NATURE SUCH AS WHERE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TRACK AND COLLIDE.

TOMORROW...A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.  IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MONSOONAL PLUME WILL PULL BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH...FOCUSING
MAINLY ON THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST...BUT ALSO POTENTIALLY CLIPPING
MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY. SO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS AREA FROM NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.  FOR THE REST OF THE
PLAINS...IT APPEARS A DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CURTAIL THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING. LW

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ONGOING BUSY WEATHER WILL NECESSITATE A SHORTER EXTENDED DISCUSSION.

THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HI PRES
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRES
PERCOLATES OVER THE PAC NW. A NUMBER OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ROLL
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE THE PLUME OF MONSOON
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM UP ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND INTO
COLORADO...PROVIDING A NEARLY CONSTANT FEED OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW CHANGES THAT COULD MEAN DIFFERENCES IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM DAY TO DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD
PCPN FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY
ANOTHER ROUND ON MONDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS DOWN ACROSS THE PALMER
DVD. NAM AND GFS DISAGREE ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP...WITH
THE GFS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT...BUT WHERE IT FINALLY SETS UP
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS AREA FOR PLAINS CONVECTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES ACROSS THE 4
CORNERS INTO COLORADO...BUT SEEMS TO BE MORE TIED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. IF THE STATE COULD BE SLICED IN HALF FROM THE NE CORNER TO
THE SW CORNER...THE NORTHWESTERN HALF WOULD HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE SE CORNER.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PLUME MIGHT WEAKEN FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WILL
MAINTAIN HOT TEMPS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION INITIALLY FIRING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN SLOWLY MOVING OFF ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS AND ASSOCIATED
LOW CIGS/VSBY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY/INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE LEADING
TO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.   HEAVY RAIN THREAT AREA
WILL PULL BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...STILL AFFECTING KCOS AND KALS...BUT PROBABLY EASING UP ON
KPUB.  LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>068-
072>089-093>097.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058>085-087-088.

&&

50/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
644 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-011245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
644 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MUD OR ROCK SLIDES WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. URBAN AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR RUNOFF WILL ALSO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS WEST IF INTERSTATE 25 AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

44/88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W RYE                 37.92N 104.96W
07/31/2010  M1.86 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT TOTAL.

&&

JCERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1215 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COZ095-096-311915-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
1215 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1207 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CHIVINGTON...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF
LAMAR...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KIOWA COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E LAMAR               38.08N 102.54W
07/31/2010  U0.00 INCH       PROWERS            CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODED FIELDS...BUT FURROWS STILL VISIBLE...BETWEEN
            COUNTY ROADS 12 AND 13...4 TO 5 MILES EAST OF LAMAR ALONG
            HIGHWAY 50.

&&

LW