Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Pueblo, CO

689 
WGUS75 KPUB 312116
FFSPUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COC015-312131-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-100731T2300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CHAFFEE CO-
316 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL CHAFFEE
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3885 10614 3872 10614 3860 10637 3866 10644
      3870 10645 3872 10642 3881 10643 3882 10638
      3887 10634 3890 10633 3890 10635 3893 10632

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
435 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SHORT TERM...

(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES...

WILL HAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT BRIEF WITH ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TODAY...WITH THE MONSOON PLUME HANGING AROUND
THRU TONIGHT. PREC H2P REMAINS AT 150-250 PERCENT. ABUNDANT LOW LVL
MOISTURE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. TRANSPORT WINDS A TAD STRONGER TODAY...SO THAT MAY HELP
TO SOME EXTENT...BUT WITH NUMEROUS SITES REPORTING BETWN 1-2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL ON FRI-FRI NITE...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
O CAUSE PROBLEMS. STILL SEEING FLOODED STREETS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
PUEBLO THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING ATTM. OTHER
HOT SPOTS INCLUDE CROWLEY AND WRN KIOWA COUNTIES...WETS AND SANGRES
SOUTH OF HGWY 96...AND RATON AREA E AND S OF TRINIDAD. RADAR ESTIMATES
OF 2-4 INCHES OR HIGHER FOR SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS. HAVE EXTENDED
OUR FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THOSE AREAS ON THE PLAINS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO MOVED UP THE STARTING
TIME OF THE WATCH SINCE THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
EVEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE GONE BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY FOR
TEMPS...WITH ABUNDANT PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPS AT OR
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATER THIS EVE. ROSE

.LONG TERM...

(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
COLORADO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING TIED TO THE TERRAIN SO
EXPECT LITTLE PRECIP EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING BEING A
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH AND ACROSS
COLORADO ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH A FRONT
AND CONVERGENCE MAX LOCATED NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND WHETHER
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD EAST ALONG THE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW NEAR PUEBLO WITH AN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 BY 00Z. THE NAM DEVELOPS VERY
LITTLE CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT STALLS OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH
WITH CONVECTION WITH EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AFTER 00Z HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF
COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A THREAT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ROTATING ACROSS COLORADO AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP WITH STORM MOTIONS BY MIDWEEK
SOMEWHAT REDUCING THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT...HOWEVER WITH
SATURATED SURFACE CONDITIONS...THINK THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S TO 80S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE WEST.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SCT-NMRS SHWRS AND TS TODAY IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR KCOS AND KPUB. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FG OR BR THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUN MORNING DUE TO VERY MOIST
SURFACE CONDITIONS. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ058>068-072>089-
093>097.

&&

44/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
644 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-011245-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
644 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. MUD OR ROCK SLIDES WILL BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS. URBAN AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR RUNOFF WILL ALSO
BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS WEST IF INTERSTATE 25 AND OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND LIGHTNING IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.

44/88

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 W RYE                 37.92N 104.96W
07/31/2010  M1.86 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT TOTAL.

&&

JCERU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1215 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

COZ095-096-311915-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
1215 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 1207 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF CHIVINGTON...OR 26 MILES NORTH OF
LAMAR...WHICH WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG STORM WILL IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
KIOWA COUNTY.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS AROUND 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.