Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1025 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10:00 PM.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE REMAINED SCATTERED SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE. THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD NOT
LAST MUCH LONGER.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
CATSKILLS, ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.

WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING IN
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH AM INCREASED
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO WINDY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS US DRY AS CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY START TO MOVE IN BY THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME INCLUDE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TYPICAL SLOW MOVING SPRING SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR CWA FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THERE HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
ON AN OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE PRECIP EVENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GREATER MODEL
CONSENSUS WE UPPED THE POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SOAKING RAIN EVENT IF THE
FORECAST CONVECTION CAN WORK ITS WAY INTO OR NEAR OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ALOFT FORECAST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT OVER OUR CWA OR UPWIND. BY TUESDAY THIS DOES CHANGE WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST WEST OF OUR CWA ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE
KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA CLOSE TO 12Z ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT AND OPEN AND TAKE THE BETTER PART OF TWO
MORE DAYS TO CLEAR OUR CWA. THE SO CALLED IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TO GO
FROM AN OVERRUNNING TYPE EVENT TO A MORE CONVECTIVE DRIVEN ONE WITH
AT LEAST SOME BIGGER TIME GAPS BETWEEN PRECIPITATION.  WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT STILL TO THE WEST THERE IS ENOUGH FORECAST INSTABILITY
ALOFT TO INCLUDE THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE IT SHOULD BE DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN, WE DID NOT EXTEND THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AS EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AT THAT POINT, THE TROF AXIS IS YET
TO MOVE THROUGH. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

UNTIL FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BETWEEN WHAT INITIALLY SHOULD BE AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THEN
HAVE INSITU COOL AIR DAMMING. WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT STAT GUIDANCE FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE
CLOSE TO 10-15C ABOVE FORECAST 850MB TEMPS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
MIN TEMP STAT GUIDANCE ACCEPTED WED THRU FRI MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT IS STILL TO MOVE THROUGH OUR TERMINAL AREA AND THE
AIR MASS IS STILL UNSTABLE, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE. SO WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE TAFS IN THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA.
THE FORECAST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MUCH FOG FROM FORMING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ON THAT.

WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD END ONCE THE
SUN SETS. THE MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
A VFR CIG DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS
SHOULD FORM.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH PROTECTION, EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, FROM ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS KEEPING SEAS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION, SO
ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WE ARE PUTTING UP NO FLAGS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND, AND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THEY MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI/GIGI
MARINE...DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-018>020-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-
152200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-152200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-017-021>025-152200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-152200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NJZ017-021>025-150315-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-
1019 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND
AND GLOUCESTER COUNTIES...

AT 1014 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTH OF VINELAND...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ESTELL MANOR...CORBIN CITY AROUND
1030 PM...LONGPORT AND ENGLISH CREEK AROUND 1045 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3937 7449 3937 7451 3934 7453 3935 7450
      3929 7452 3930 7454 3927 7456 3928 7463
      3929 7462 3930 7458 3930 7463 3928 7465
      3935 7507 3953 7502 3943 7445

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-022-027-PAZ070-150330-
ATLANTIC NJ-CAMDEN NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-NEW CASTLE DE-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...
CAMDEN...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...NEW CASTLE AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 1031 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF WILMINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SWEDESBORO...MULLICA HILL AROUND
1045 PM...PITMAN...GLASSBORO AROUND 1100 PM...SICKLERVILLE...
WILLIAMSTOWN AROUND 1115 PM...CHESILHURST AND ATCO AROUND 1130 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3981 7462 3955 7466 3968 7548 3986 7544

HAYES

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