Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #174 IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
OUR ALL OUR COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR MONROE COUNTY IN PA AND SUSSEX
COUNTY IN NJ.

MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
STARTS TO FIRE UP ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND IS MORE SCATTERED
SOUTHWARD INTO VIRGINIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PRE
FRONTAL TROUGH, AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND SPREAD INTO OUR
AREA WHERE WE HAVE DESTABILIZED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
HAD GOOD SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER
80S. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AROUND WILLIAMSPORT, PA
SOUTHWARD INTO MARYLAND/VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS SLOW
MOVING AND BY 00Z TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS OUR AREA. WE EXPECT THE
FRONT TO EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT, LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THE
FRONT MOVES OUT WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING OCCUR AND SKIES SHOULD
START TO CLEAR OUT A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOMEWHAT BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GUIDANCE WAS SIMILAR AND A BLEND WAS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGING IN
BEAUTIFUL WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL, IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH AM INCREASED
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND BUILDING HIGH. THE GRADIENT
RELAXES LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE TOO WINDY.

MONDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES. MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS US DRY AS CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS MAY START TO MOVE IN BY THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREA. THERE MAY BE A RUMBLE OR TWO
OF THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME INCLUDE WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TYPICAL SLOW MOVING SPRING SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR CWA FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. THERE HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
ON AN OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE PRECIP EVENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG
TERM MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE GREATER MODEL
CONSENSUS WE UPPED THE POPS TO LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SOAKING RAIN EVENT IF THE
FORECAST CONVECTION CAN WORK ITS WAY INTO OR NEAR OUR CWA.
INITIALLY THERE IS NOT MUCH INSTABILITY ALOFT FORECAST FOR MONDAY
NIGHT OVER OUR CWA OR UPWIND. BY TUESDAY THIS DOES CHANGE WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST WEST OF OUR CWA ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. WE
KEPT IN THE MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT AND TRIPLE POINT LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA CLOSE TO 12Z ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT AND OPEN AND TAKE THE BETTER PART OF TWO
MORE DAYS TO CLEAR OUR CWA. THE SO CALLED IMPROVEMENT WOULD BE TO GO
FROM AN OVERRUNNING TYPE EVENT TO A MORE CONVECTIVE DRIVEN ONE WITH
AT LEAST SOME BIGGER TIME GAPS BETWEEN PRECIPITATION.  WITH THE COLD
POOL ALOFT STILL TO THE WEST THERE IS ENOUGH FORECAST INSTABILITY
ALOFT TO INCLUDE THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY. SINCE IT SHOULD BE DAYTIME
HEATING DRIVEN, WE DID NOT EXTEND THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AS EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO OPEN AT THAT POINT, THE TROF AXIS IS YET
TO MOVE THROUGH. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY.

UNTIL FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL BETWEEN WHAT INITIALLY SHOULD BE AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THEN
HAVE INSITU COOL AIR DAMMING. WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT STAT GUIDANCE FORECAST MAX TEMPS WERE
CLOSE TO 10-15C ABOVE FORECAST 850MB TEMPS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
MIN TEMP STAT GUIDANCE ACCEPTED WED THRU FRI MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD, AT A MINIMUM, HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR
AREA, BUT WE STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL HIT ANY
PARTICULAR SITE TO FORECAST ANYTHING OTHER THAN CB GROUPS IN THE MID
AFTERNOON TO EVENING TIME FRAME. AFTER THAT, THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND ENDS THE THREAT. WE EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO OR A BIT ABOVE 20 KT
FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WE TAKE OUT THE CB GROUPS AND THE GUSTINESS LATE IN THE EVENING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AND THEN BRING A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BACK
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WE ARE NOT
FORECASTING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT ANY TIME DURING THE TAF
PERIOD, BUT IF ANY SITE GETS CAUGHT UNDER A TSTMS IT WOULD
EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH PROTECTION, EVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, FROM ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS.
WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE IS KEEPING SEAS BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERION, SO
ALTHOUGH WE LIKELY WILL MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WE ARE PUTTING UP NO FLAGS.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE WEEKEND, AND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THEY MAY APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE APPROACH OF NEXT SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...DELISI
MARINE...DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007>010-012>027-PAZ054-060>062-
067>071-152000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NJZ001-PAZ055-152000-
SUSSEX-MONROE-
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ430-431-450>455-152000-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NJZ021>025-150230-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
931 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...CAPE MAY AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 928 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MILLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ESTELL MANOR AROUND 930 PM...
CORBIN CITY...MARMORA AROUND 945 PM...LONGPORT...SOMERS POINT AROUND
1000 PM...ATLANTIC CITY AND BRIGANTINE AROUND 1015 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3935 7441 3929 7452 3930 7454 3928 7455
      3925 7459 3922 7462 3919 7465 3922 7495
      3940 7494 3940 7444 3939 7443 3940 7443
      3940 7436

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NJZ023-024-150230-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
936 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAPE MAY COUNTY...

AT 932 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF CAPE MAY...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WHITESBORO-BURLEIGH...GREEN
CREEK AROUND 945 PM...SCOTCH BONNET AND STONE HARBOR AROUND 1000 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3897 7498 3902 7496 3911 7490 3917 7491
      3917 7466 3912 7470 3910 7470 3907 7471
      3902 7479 3900 7478 3898 7480 3896 7483

HAYES