Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

490 
WWUS51 KPHI 041948
SVSPHI

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

MDC015-PAC029-042030-
/O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-100604T2030Z/
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
348 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHESTER AND NORTHERN CECIL COUNTIES...

AT 346 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 
TO AROUND 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RISING SUN...OR 16
MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FARMINGTON BY 355 PM EDT...
  CALVERT AND LOMBARD BY 405 PM EDT...
  ZION...BAY VIEW AND BLAKE BY 410 PM EDT...
  PLEASANT HILL...FAIR HILL AND NORTH EAST BY 420 PM EDT...
  CHERRY HILL BY 425 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY! 
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
FRIDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7619 3973 7615 3976 7609 3987 7601
      3980 7580 3973 7577 3972 7579 3964 7578
      3950 7581 3962 7616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 292DEG 15KT 3971 7607

$$
 
TFG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL ZONE WILL MEANDER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND DRAGS
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT THE SUN TO BE ABLE TO GET THROUGH THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY, SO TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK IN MANY AREAS. NO WEATHER TRIGGERS TODAY OR TONIGHT TO
SET OFF WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONTAL ZONE MEANDERS BACK TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS, COULD SEE
SOME POP UP LATE TODAY. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE PROBS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND BE
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY, BUT
OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS YESTERDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOT AS HIGH AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINTS THE HIGHEST OVER
THE DELMARVA, SOUTHEAST PA, AND SOUTHERN NJ IN THE UPPER 60S.
CAPES OF 1000 TO 1200 AND LIFTED INDICES AROUND -2 THROUGH THE
DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST PA ARE ALSO NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY.
LOOKING AT FORECAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 925MB TO 500MB,
THERE IS SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, BUT THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SPEED SHEAR. SPEED SHEAR IS A BIT MORE
IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA, BUT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
MINIMAL. CURRENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE FREEZING
LEVEL WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH AGAIN TODAY, SO ANY HAIL THREAT IS
VERY MINIMAL. THE WEAKENED SURFACE FRONT IS A LITTLE MORE OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY, BUT A WEAK AND ELONGATED VORT MAX IS
FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION OVER THE DELMARVA AND INTO SOUTHEAST PA, BUT
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE
PROBS THERE AND CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. AS LOW PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY, IT WILL HELP DRAG
THAT ZONE BACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME, OF WHICH, COULD
BE QUITE STRONG. WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF HUMID AIR AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL UP IN THE 80S, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS PUT OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS
OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE PRECIPITATION AND PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY AND
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WHERE READINGS MIGHT ONLY REACH
THE UPPER 60S. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AND
USHER IN A FRESH BATCH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W AND
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING DRY WX.  HOWEVER,
WITH AN H5 TROF, TEMPS AROUND NORMAL.  HGTS THEN RISE AROUND
MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THE LOW
THEN MOVES INTO ERN CANADA AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTMS. OVERALL, DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES
TO THE CURRENT FCST, EXCEPT TO ADJUST SOME POPS BASED ON LATEST
MDL TIMING. BEYOND THURSDAY, LATEST MDL GUIDANCE IS FCSTING A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP UNDERNEATH AN EAST COAST RIDGE, BUT ITS WAY
TO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS WILL MATERIALIZE AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE BALANCE OF TODAY WILL FEATURE VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
ONLY FEW-SCT LOW CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE GENTLE AND THEY WILL
BACK FROM W OR NW EARLY TO SW OR S BY EVENING. I HAVE INCLUDED AN
ONSHORE BREEZE AT KACY WHERE A SEA-BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LESS CONFID ON SEA-BREEZE AT OTHER TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WARM FRONT WILL RETURN TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER AND CHCS FOR SHOWERS
INCRG. VCSH INCLUDED AT KABE AND KRDG AFTER 00Z FOR NOW. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...BUT NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THAT ATTM.
SUFFICIENT ELEVATE CAPES EXIST FOR A TSTM OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOWER CONDS SAT AND SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO BIG ISSUES ON THE WATERS DURING THE SHORT TERM. GENTLE WEST WINDS
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SW THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP A
LITTLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SCA TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO THE SATURDAY.
THE WARMER AIR ACROSS THE COOLER WATERS SHOULD LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING
IN THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SUNDAY MAY BRING SOME
HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES...STILL LOOKS LIKE THE SCA WON'T BE NEEDED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT...SAT AND
SUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPW
NEAR TERM...KLINE/RPW
SHORT TERM...RPW
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...O'HARA/HAYES
MARINE...O'HARA/HAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-050900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
400 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-470-050900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM-
400 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RPW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

DEZ001-MDZ008-PAZ067-041915-
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-NEW CASTLE DE-
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CECIL...CHESTER AND NEW CASTLE
COUNTIES...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELKTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR LOMBARD...CALVERT
AROUND 200 PM...BLAKE...FAIR HILL AROUND 215
PM...KEMBLESVILLE...WEST GROVE AROUND 230
PM...LADENBERG...TOUGHKENAMON AROUND 245 PM...KENNETT SQUARE AND
ASHLAND AROUND 300 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THERE ARE OTHER THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY THAT COULD AFFECT CHESTER COUNTY AFTER 230 PM.

LAT...LON 3976 7609 3987 7601 3992 7601 4003 7595
      4010 7595 4018 7577 3966 7555 3962 7560
      3962 7610 3972 7617

TFG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

MDZ008-PAZ067-042030-
CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CECIL AND CHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 255 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ROCK SPRINGS...RICHARDSMERE AROUND
330 PM...GLEN ROY...MOUNT VERNON AROUND 345 PM...OXFORD...LOMBARD
AROUND 400 PM...KEMBLESVILLE AND GLEN WESTOVER AROUND 415 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

EXPECT LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES
WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM
APPROACHES.

THIS STORM IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AND IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING TO BE ISSUED IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES.

LAT...LON 3973 7615 3975 7610 3978 7607 3985 7603
      3987 7601 3992 7601 4000 7598 4005 7571
      3955 7583 3967 7620 3969 7623 3972 7624

TFG