River Flood Warning 63, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

132 
WGUS81 KPHI 010454
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
1254 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT BERNE AFFECTING BERKS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

PAC011-091-011454-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-101002T0700Z/
/BREP1.1.ER.101001T1344Z.101001T1700Z.101002T0100Z.NO/
1254 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT BERNE.
* AT 12:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO
  RISE TO NEAR 13.5 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY TONIGHT.

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

SCHUYLKILL RIVER
  BERNE            12.0    8.01  FRI 12 AM   13.5  FRI 1 PM 

&&

424 
WGUS81 KPHI 011443
FLSPHI
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MT HOLLY, NEW JERSEY
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT BERNE AFFECTING BERKS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT READING AFFECTING BERKS COUNTY
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
PENNSYLVANIA...
 
  PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY 
  SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT POTTSTOWN AFFECTING MONTGOMERY COUNTY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN YOU THINK.

&&

PAC091-020043-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-101002T0300Z/
/GRAP1.2.ER.101001T0652Z.101001T1030Z.101001T2100Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE PERKIOMEN CREEK AT GRATERFORD.
* AT 10:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.5 FEET...HOUSES ON LEFT BANK IN GRATERFORD FLOODED

$$

PAC011-091-011513-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-101002T0700Z/
/BREP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT BERNE.
* AT 10:00 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.3 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 12.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.4 FEET.  THE RIVER
  WILL FALL TO 8.3 FEET BY .


$$

PAC011-011513-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FL.W.0073.000000T0000Z-101002T0300Z/
/RDRP1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT READING.
* AT 10:01 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 10.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.5 FEET THIS 
  AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...PARTS OF WATER AND CANAL STREETS IN READING 
  FLOOD

$$

PAC091-020043-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FL.W.0074.101001T2200Z-101002T1030Z/
/PTNP1.1.ER.101001T2200Z.101002T0000Z.101002T0430Z.NO/
1043 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE SCHUYLKILL RIVER AT POTTSTOWN.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO SATURDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS 
  CANCELLED.
* AT 10:15 AM FRIDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE
  TO NEAR 13.6 FEET BY THIS EVENING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 14.0 FEET...PA ROUTE 724 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

$$

                   FLD      OBSERVED          FORECAST
 LOCATION          STG    STG  DAY TIME       CREST

SCHUYLKILL RIVER
  BERNE            12.0    9.32  FRI 10 AM    9.3  FRI 2 PM 
  READING          13.0   10.15  FRI 10 AM   12.5  FRI 2 PM 
  POTTSTOWN        13.0   11.60  FRI 10 AM   13.6  FRI 8 PM 

PERKIOMEN CREEK
  GRATERFORD       11.0   13.84  FRI 10 AM   12.8  FRI 2 PM 

&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINA AREA THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IT
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK LOW MAY BRING MORE
SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WET AND WINDY EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FIRST
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENING TO THE WEST AND A DEFORMATION ZONE
LEFT IN ITS WAKE. THE MODELS SHOW THE NEXT STRONG LOW WILL RIDE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AND BRING MORE HEAVY RAINS AND
WIND TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL WAS
THE PREFERRED CHOICE OF HPC TODAY AND THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN PREPARED
WITH THIS IN MIND.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BY EVENING AND THEY WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...UNTIL THE LOW MOVES BY. THE PREVIOUS WIND ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA...BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW...THE TIMING WILL BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE WHOLE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS HAS SOME SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER WINDS FOR THE
AREA TONIGHT AND THESE WINDS WOULD BE A WIND WARNING LEVELS. IF
THESE WINDS MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING...WIND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO
BE ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS.

RAINFALL FROM THE FIRST LOW WAS HEAVY ACROSS ERN PA AND ERN MD WITH
LIGHTER TOTALS ACROSS NJ AND DE. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
FELL ACROSS ERN PA AND MD. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN ARRIVING ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND KEEP THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH ITS
ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ADDITIONAL RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND
EVENTUALLY MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING TOO. THE NWS AHPS PAGE IS A
GREAT PLACE TO FOLLOW THE HYDRO READINGS/FCSTS.

THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 23Z TONIGHT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT SHOWED SIGNS
OF ROTATION, ALTHOUGH IT WAS VERY BOARD, THAT FELL APART WITHIN A
FEW VOLUME SCANS. THE STRONGEST LINE ACROSS THE REGION IS STILL
CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY UP INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE EAST
SHORE OF MARYLAND. AS WE CONTINUE TO HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
THE TREND OF THESE SPINNING STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WELL,
BUT WE ARE DEFINITELY KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE SCOPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIETER WEATHER AWAITS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF
THE MOST RECENT STORM MAY EXTEND INTO THE SHORT TERM HOWEVER. THE
STRONG LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AREA FRI
NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRIER AIR
WILL ARRIVE WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOL FOR THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR THE MOST PART AND LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE THE MID RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE SOME PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
THAT MAKE ALL OF THE DIFFERENCE WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BECAUSE OF THIS...THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
BEYOND ARE BELOW NORMAL.

THE ECMWF AND THE 1200 UTC GFS ARE STILL HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CLOSING SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DIFFERENTLY...AS THE
ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF...WHILE THE GFS IS BIT
MORE PROGRESSIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT WITH ITSELF FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS...THIS IS THE MODEL OF
CHOICE FOR THE BULK OF THE THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THIS SHOULD KEEP SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THE AIR-MASS
WILL MODIFY WITH TIME...BUT THERE STILL SEEMS TO BE A SHOT AT SOME
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE...EAST OF THE CLOSED MID
LEVEL SYSTEM. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BE THE KEY TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST. RIGHT NOW...IT
WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE WITH THE
SURFACE WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAF PACKAGE CARRIED MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR KABE AND KRDG AND WE WILL BE FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. PREDOMINANT IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR TONIGHT. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BEFORE THE TAF PACKAGE ENDS
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL CONT THE MENTION OF LLWS INTO THE
EVE AT KRDG AND KABE AND OVERNIGHT AT THE OTHER TAF SITES FOLLOWING
A COMBINATION OF MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST OF THE LLJ.

BAND OF CONVECTION/HEAVIER RAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS
WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS
TO THE KPHL TERMINALS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED STARTING AT
AROUND 22Z. A COUPLE OF OUR MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIER PCPN WOULD ARRIVE AT
THE KPHL TERMINALS AROUND 00Z. THE CB CLOUD GROUP INCLUSION IS FOR
THE PASSAGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND. GIVEN THE SLOW EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE BANDS, WE MIGHT HAVE TO EXTEND THE INCLUSION OF
CB(S) LONGER, ESPECIALLY AT KACY AND KMIV.

GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY BACK MORE TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ON THESE DETAILS ARE LOWER THAN
AVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT BECAUSE OF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW INTO NJ. GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT ALL THE TERMINALS ON
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TO HOW
FAR NORTHWEST MVFR CONTENTIONS WILL EXTEND FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. BECAUSE OF THE
LARGE MODEL SPREAD CONFIDENCE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
SHOULD BE VIEWED AS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE MAINTAINING THE GALE WARNINGS AND EXTENDING THEM SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT AS PER MODEL TREND TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION.
FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING IN VIRGINIA AS THE SECOND ONE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SC COAST IS TAKING OVER. THERE ARE MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND DIRECTION/SPEEDS ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS THE LOW ENTERS OUR MARINE AREA. ONCE THE
LOW ENTERS OUR MARINE WATERS, WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LEAVES OUR MARINE WATERS, A GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WINDS TO
STAY BELOW GALE FORCE LEVELS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA, IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR SEAS TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN SIDE,
PROBABLY NOT TIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO WILL INCREASE WINDS
AND SEAS AGAIN. CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH, BUT THE
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE OCEAN WATERS, THE GREATER THE CHANCES FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY INTO FRIDAY BECAUSE OF WAVE
HEIGHT PREDICTION ABOVE 8 FT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE PRODUCT /CFW/.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL COULD REACH UP TO 6 OR PERHAPS 7 INCHES IN A
FEW AREAS WITH WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
AREAS ACROSS ERN PA AND MD HAVE HAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ALREADY. SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL RESPOND QUICKLY TO THE
RAINS TONIGHT WHILE THE LARGER RIVERS MAY REACH FLOOD STAGES ON
FRIDAY. WE WILL ISSUE STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO KEEP YOU UPDATED.

THE LATEST READINGS AND FORECASTS FROM THE GAGED RIVERS/CREEKS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE AHPS WEB PAGE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER PORTION OF
THE DELAWARE BAY AND LOWER PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO FUNNEL WATER UP THE BAY...AND TIDE
DEPARTURES HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR TWO AND ONE-HALF FEET. CONTINUING
THIS DEPARTURE INTO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN THROUGH ITS
CONCLUSION ALONG THE OCEAN SIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF TIDAL
PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT. THE ENSUING HIGH TIDE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS ABOUT A FOOT AND A
HALF ASTRONOMICALLY LOWER AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB FURTHER
INCREASES IN TIDAL DEPARTURES. WINDS BY THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE AND WOULD NEGATE ANY
ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING.

ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE WILL CONTINUE THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING DID OCCUR IN THE
UPPER REACHES OF THE BAY WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE AND
LATEST CHESAPEAKE BAY SPECIFIC TIDAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A MORE
WIDESPREAD MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EVENT OVERNIGHT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASTRO TIDE CYCLES INCREASE AND ALL THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CAUSE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES.
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS IN THE DAYS TO COME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016-
     021.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-023>026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ017>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001-
     002.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...O'HARA
NEAR TERM...O'HARA/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...O'HARA
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...GIGI
MARINE...GIGI
HYDROLOGY...O'HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ003-MDZ008-NJZ008>010-012-013-015-020-022-027-PAZ067>069-012115-
INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-012115-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ023-012115-
CAPE MAY-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-012115-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ012-015-019-020-012115-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-012115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-012115-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-012115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-012115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
508 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
137 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

MDZ012-015-019-020-301815-
CAROLINE MD-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
137 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A SERIES OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
CAROLINE...KENT...QUEEN ANNE'S AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 134 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 20 MILES SOUTH OF
EASTON...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. THE SHOWER WILL BE NEAR
TRAPPE...WINDYHILL...CHOPTANK AROUND 150
PM...HAMBLETON...OXFORD...TANYARD AROUND 155 PM...EASTON...ST.
MICHAELS AROUND 200 PM...COPPERVILLE AND MATTHEWS AROUND 205 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3873 7627 3884 7630 3887 7625 3882 7620
      3893 7621 3894 7624 3890 7624 3893 7628
      3890 7629 3891 7632 3902 7634 3904 7629
      3898 7621 3899 7620 3903 7625 3907 7590
      3867 7594 3856 7605

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ002-003-MDZ015-020-302000-
CAROLINE MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
315 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A AREA OF TRAINING SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
KENT...CAROLINE...QUEEN ANNE'S AND SUSSEX COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
AREA OF TRAINING SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SALISBURY...MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR
SEAFORD...BLADES AROUND 320 PM...FEDERALSBURG AROUND 325
PM...SMITHVILLE...BRIDGEVILLE...AGNER AROUND 330
PM...ANDREWSVILLE...GREENWOOD...FARMINGTON AND DENTON AROUND 335 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3847 7571 3865 7572 3867 7576
      3867 7580 3869 7582 3869 7585 3917 7586
      3916 7546 3845 7559

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-020-302045-
CAROLINE MD-CECIL MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-
QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
347 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...TRAINING SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT
KENT...CAROLINE...CECIL...QUEEN ANNE'S...SUSSEX AND NEW CASTLE
COUNTIES...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TRAINING SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 18 MILES WEST OF
GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR
GREENWOOD AROUND 355 PM...ANDREWSVILLE AROUND 400
PM...DENTON...FARMINGTON AROUND 405 PM...HARRINGTON AROUND 410
PM...GREENSBORO AROUND 415 PM...GOLDSBORO...SANDTOWN...FELTON AND
VIOLA AROUND 420 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3852 7571 3865 7572 3867 7576 3867 7580
      3870 7583 3938 7584 3939 7552 3851 7562

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ002-NJZ016-021-010015-
CUMBERLAND NJ-KENT DE-SALEM NJ-
618 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT KENT...SALEM AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTIES...

AT 614 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 9 MILES SOUTH OF DOVER...MOVING NORTH
AT 25 MPH. THE SHOWER WILL BE NEAR RISING SUN AROUND 625 PM...DOVER
BASE HOUSING...KENT ACRES...HIGHLAND ACRES AROUND 630 PM...DOVER
AROUND 635 PM...LITTLE CREEK AROUND 640 PM...WOODLAND BEACH AROUND
705 PM AND CEDARVILLE AROUND 710 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER.

LAT...LON 3934 7548 3932 7543 3924 7539 3928 7530
      3934 7535 3933 7537 3940 7547 3971 7540
      3954 7508 3925 7521 3929 7527 3923 7539
      3909 7540 3902 7532 3899 7533 3889 7558

FORECASTER: NIERENBERG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ002-003-MDZ020-302300-
CAROLINE MD-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE-
623 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT KENT...CAROLINE AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES EAST
OF EASTON TO 9 MILES NORTH OF SALISBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO ALMOST
DIRECTLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THE SHOWERS WILL BE NEAR
SMITHVILLE...BETHEL AROUND 625 PM...SEAFORD...LAUREL AROUND 630
PM...DENTON...SYCAMORE...BLADES AROUND 635 PM...BRIDGEVILLE AROUND
640 PM...ANDREWSVILLE AND GREENWOOD AROUND 645 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE SHOWERS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER
TO POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LAT...LON 3846 7570 3847 7571 3865 7572 3867 7576
      3867 7580 3869 7582 3871 7587 3876 7592
      3916 7566 3878 7538 3846 7556

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ001-NJZ016>019-021-PAZ067>071-302330-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CHESTER PA-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
650 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...A SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL AFFECT SALEM...CUMBERLAND...
CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...DELAWARE...PHILADELPHIA...CHESTER...
MONTGOMERY...BUCKS...NEW CASTLE AND BURLINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 646 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON...
MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH. THE SHOWER WILL BE NEAR WOODSTOWN AROUND 700
PM...SWEDESBORO...BECKETT...MULLICA HILL...PENNS GROVE AROUND 705
PM...TRAINER...MARCUS HOOK...WENONAH...LINWOOD AROUND 710 PM AND
GIBBSTOWN AROUND 715 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS SHOWER...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SHOWER.

LAT...LON 4016 7545 4008 7496 3942 7526 3945 7549

FORECASTER: HEAVENER