Areal Flood Warning 31, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES OVERNIGHT AND PASS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE HEADING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY. LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENT IS UNDERWAY...AS HEAVY RAIN WAS TRAVERSING OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. ONE AREA EXTENDED EASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...BUT UPSTREAM THE HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL HEAD TOWARD THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA DURING
THIS MORNING...PERHAPS MOSTLY IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MODEL
OUTPUT WAS NOT BAD ON THIS...AS THE FIRST LOW/IMPULSE WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY THE NAM/GFS. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A LAGGARD ON
IDENTIFYING THIS FIRST FEATURE...BUT PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT IS IN
LINE WITH THE COMPETITION. CONSEQUENTLY RAIN AMOUNTS WERE
LESSENED FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY
TODAY. POPS WERE LOWERED TO LIKELY OR CHANGED TO PERIODS OF.

WE REMAIN IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH SUCH HELICITY...AND UPSTREAM REPORTS OF TORNADOES...AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD NOT BE UNEXPECTED TODAY.

THE WIND ADVISORY WAS LEFT INTACT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTED THAT HIGH
WINDS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING LATER THIS MORNING. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE ABOUT RIGHT
WITH WINDS INCREASING BY MID MORNING SOUTH AND MIDDAY / EARLY
AFTERNOON NORTH. COASTAL AREAS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN LINE FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS...AS 925 HPA WINDS WERE HANDLED MORE SIMILARLY BY
THE NAM/GFS THIS MORNING AND SHOWED LESS SPEED THAN YESTERDAY...
TOPPING OUT ABOUT 65 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS THE SECOND LOW...AKA ROUND TWO...MOVES UP LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT IT SHOULD HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN TRACK AS THE 700
HPA WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. OUR AREA APPEARS IN THE
CROSSHAIRS FOR THIS SURGE. AS THE SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO AFFECT
OUR AREA FOR A MORE PROLONGED TIME...TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
POPS, QPF AMOUNTS, AND TIMING WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE PRIME TIME FOR FLOODING
OF THE SMALLER STREAMS AND TRIBUTARIES TO OCCUR. IF ANY RIVER
INVOLVEMENT WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD LAG SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA SATURDAY AS RUNOFF
CONTINUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST, WHICH FAVORS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES TO NORTHEAST, BUT THEN MODEL DIFFERENCES REALLY COME INTO
PLAY. THERE ARE SOME COMPUTER MODELS THAT INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH
CLOSES OFF IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH TIME,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOES NOT BECOME
CUT OFF ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO BE PROGRESSIVE AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
SLIDES EAST. THIS LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TIED TO
THE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST AND HOW THIS ENERGY MOVES/AMPLIFIES
EASTWARD. HPC WENT WITH THE ECMWF FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THEN THE ECMWF MEAN. THIS WAS DONE TO MITIGATE THE ERROR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TWO FORECAST CLOSED LOWS ACROSS THE U.S. DURING THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE INITIALIZED THE DATABASE WITH HPC GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE MAIN FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE DETAILS. WE THEN MADE SOME MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION.

BASED ON THE ABOVE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA, A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MAY DEVELOP
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA
SUNDAY. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
AROUND, ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME INSTABILITY
SHOWERS DEVELOPING UNDER THE TROUGH AXIS. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY
ATTM, WE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AS ENERGY MOVES OUT OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO, IF
CORRECT, WOULD FAVOR MORE OF AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF OUR CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
SCENARIO BECOMES REALITY, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST MAY TOSS ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
DETAILS, WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SOME
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MAY
LINGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH DID MAKE SOME LOCAL
ADJUSTMENTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...00Z/30 NAM WAS THE PRIMARY MODEL BASIS OF THIS FCST
AS ITS GFS COUNTERPART DOES NOT SEEM TO DEPICT LOWER CIGS AND EWD
EXTENSION OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z. IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
EVOLVING OVERHEAD OR ADVECTING FROM SSE TO NNW BETWEEN NOW-09Z.
CONCERNED ABOUT GUSTY THUNDER DEL/S NJ NEAR 12Z PER 00Z NAM/GFS
SWI.

03Z HRRR CONTINUES TOO FAR WEST. IT MIGHT BE CORRECT ON RUNNING A
2-3 HR WIDE BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS N THROUGH NJ NOW AND THEN DRYING
IT OUT ACROSS NJ SHORTLY INTO EARLY AFTN... HINT OF THAT IN THE
00Z/30 UKMET AND ECMWF AS WELL.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DURING THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY KMIV AND KACY GET INTO A LULL AS THE STEADIER RAIN MAY
HAVE SHIFTED TO NEAR THE KPHL METRO AREA ON WESTWARD. IF THIS
OCCURS, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE WARMER AND VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WOULD SURGE ACROSS NEW JERSEY. THIS COULD ALLOW THE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE AND EVEN ALLOW ANY STEADY
RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY. CONFIDENCE ON CONDS KMIV AND KACY IS LOW
AS IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON.

CB NOW IN THE FCST ALONG THE FINAL BAND OF R+ THU NIGHT PER GFS SWI.

REGARDING TOR WATCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE RELATIVELY FINE
LINE OF HEAVY CONVECTION VCNTY KORF-KBWI. MAY NOT REACH SW NJ TIL
AFTN OR NIGHT.

SO...COVERAGE AND TIMING OF THUNDER IS IN QUESTION THEREFORE NO
OTHER MENTION INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR,
THEY WOULD TEND TO BE FAST MOVING AND LOW- TOPPED WITH LITTLE TO
NO LIGHTNING BUT ENHANCED SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

WIND...DELAWARE RIVER E...BLV WE SEE SE GUSTS 33-43 KT BY MIDDAY
PER BL WARMING AND ASSOCIATED IMPROVED TRANSFER. PRIMARY LLWS
16Z/30-02Z/01 OF GENERALLY 60-65 KT BUT POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 70 KT
AT KACY. KABE/KRDG GUSTS AND LLWS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 KT LESS THAN
DELAWARE RIVER EAST.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR MIDDAY. NW GUSTS 20-30KT
DAYTIME.

WEEKEND...GENERALLY VFR.

MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN AND SPOTTY MVFR CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...GALE CONTINUED AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. MWW HAS THE
INFORMATION INCLUDING COMMENT ON PRIME TIME FOR ANY TOR THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT WATCH.

LOW PROBABILITY WE WILL NEED TO EXTEND PORTIONS OF THE GALE WARNING
THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY DUE TO SECOND LOW CENTER MOVING NNE THRU
THE MID ATLC STATES TONIGHT. LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS REGARDING ITS
TIMING.

FRIDAY...SCA NW WINDS AND LEFTOVER SE SWELL 8-10 FT SEAS ON THE
ATLC.

WEEKEND...SCA SE SWELL SEAS ON OPEN COASTAL ATLC SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY... SCA NE WIND WITH 950 MB TRANSFER OVER THE WARMER WATER
MAY BE DEVELOPING PER 00Z/30 GGEM/ECMWF. GFS DIFFERS. CONFIDENCE
LOW.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES TODAY INTO FRIDAY BECAUSE OF WAVE
HEIGHT PREDICTION ABOVE 8 FT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE PRODUCT /CFW/.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK...AND LOOKS TO COME IN TWO
PIECES.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN PERIOD FROM THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY COULD
LESSEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTHWEST WITH THE OPENING OF THE 700 HPA CLOSED LOW...THE TRACK
OF THE SECOND HEAVY RAIN AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY LOW
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
EAST OF THE FIRST.

STORM TOTAL QPF GRIDS SHOWED 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN AND WE
MENTIONED A LOCAL 6 INCHES TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM PRIOR
THINKING. HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT LOCAL AMOUNTS DUE TO TRAINING,
THUNDERSTORMS, TERRAIN EFFECTS, ETC COULD REACH TO EVEN HIGHER
NUMBERS. THIS FORECAST RAIN IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MINOR TO
MODERATE FLOODING OF STREAMS AND CREEKS. LARGER RIVERS MAY HAVE
FLOODING IF THEY RECEIVE WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES OR MORE
OVER THE BASINS OR UPSTREAM.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INTO THE
DELAWARE BAY AND TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. IN HOUSE
TIDAL DEPARTURE FORECASTS ARE MORE ROBUST THAN ANY GUIDANCE AND GIVE
US BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FOOT TIDAL DEPARTURES WITH THE HIGHEST
DEPARTURES IN DELAWARE BAY. THIS APPEARS LOGICAL GIVEN THE UP THE
BAY FLOW. FRESH WATER RUNOFF WILL EXACERBATE THE TIDAL FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IF IT COINCIDES WITH THE HIGH TIDE. WE ARE FORTUNATE THAT
THE WINDS ARE RAMPING UP FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A ONE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE EVENT. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY IS ABOUT
A FOOT AND A HALF ASTRONOMICALLY LOWER AND SHOULD NOT POSE
ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ON CHESAPEAKE BAY, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT. CURRENT TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGHER
THAN PREDICTED AND GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING WILL OCCUR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASTRO TIDE CYCLES INCREASE AND 00Z/30 GGEM/UK/EC
ALL SUGGEST PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND POTENTIAL SCA. THIS COULD DEVELOP
A MINOR ATLC SURGE OF 0.5 TO 1 FOOT WITH A MINOR COASTAL FLOOD SITN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ008>010-012-
     015>019-021.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ014-021-023>026.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-023>026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NJZ013-014-020-
     022>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ016>019.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPW/
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM.../
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG
MARINE...DRAG
HYDROLOGY.../
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GIGI/DRAG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NJZ008>010-012-015-PAZ067>069-011245-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ013-020-027-011245-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ016>018-011245-
NEW CASTLE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ023-011245-
CAPE MAY-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-NJZ021-011245-
KENT-CUMBERLAND-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ019-PAZ070-071-011245-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ008-011245-
CECIL-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MDZ012-015-019-020-011245-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-011245-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ022-011245-
ATLANTIC-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-011245-
INLAND SUSSEX-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-026-011245-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-COASTAL OCEAN-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

ALSO...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ024-025-011245-
DELAWARE BEACHES-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

ALSO...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ452>455-011245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   GALE WARNING.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-011245-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

IN ADDITION...THE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-011245-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
833 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 688 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.
   GALE WARNING.

THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
WELL AS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-022-026-
027-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-301100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...NEWTON...
WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...HAMMONTON...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
454 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WERE AFFECTING
NORTHERN DELAWARE...THE NORTHEAST MARYLAND SHORE...PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL DUMP A HALF INCH TO THREE-QUARTERS OF
AN INCH IN A SHORT TIME...AND CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW
SPOTS ROADS AND HIGHWAYS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADIER OVER
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS
MORNING....BUT SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVIER OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE RAIN AND SHOWERS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 35
TO 40 MILES AN HOUR.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
733 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NJZ007-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-301330-
BERKS PA-BUCKS PA-CARBON PA-CHESTER PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-WARREN NJ-
733 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE...

AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. UP TO ONE INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ABOUT THIS MORNING.

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A
FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LAT...LON 4116 7516 4115 7509 4109 7503 4110 7499
      4091 7482 4068 7502 4059 7519 4056 7519
      4056 7513 3973 7582 4067 7589 4074 7578
      4092 7599 4100 7575 4108 7578 4114 7569
      4113 7564 4123 7554 4126 7514

JJM