Gale Warning 17, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

042 
WHUS71 KPHI 300741
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

ANZ450-302100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100330T2200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
341 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL JUST OFF 
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW CENTERS ITSELF ACROSS
THE AREA, WINDS MAY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HELPING TO DIMINISH WINDS
MORE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE ROUGH TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451>455-302100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
341 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL JUST OFF 
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HELPING TO
DIMINISH WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE ROUGH TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-302100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
341 AM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND STALL JUST OFF 
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, HELPING TO
DIMINISH WINDS OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHOPPY TODAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

699 
WHUS71 KPHI 301903
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

ANZ450-310800-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100330T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0031.100330T1903Z-100331T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ451-310800-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0031.100330T1903Z-100331T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY, WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ452>455-310800-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE ROUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-310800-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
303 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE CHOPPY SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GORSE

118 
WHUS71 KPHI 310114
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

ANZ452>455-310800-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE ROUGH SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE TONIGHT AND DURING WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-310800-
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 KNOTS THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE CHOPPY SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND DURING WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-311000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-100331T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
914 PM EDT TUE MAR 30 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
WEDNESDAY. 

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THESE RANGES ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

188 
WHUS71 KPHI 310720
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
320 AM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

ANZ430-431-452>455-311700-
/O.CAN.KPHI.GL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-100331T0800Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-100331T1700Z/
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
320 AM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. IT
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:00 PM. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

ANZ450-451-311700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-100331T1700Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT
20 NM-
320 AM EDT WED MAR 31 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:00 PM.

LOW PRESSURE, LOCATED SOUTH OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE OCEAN ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FEET
THIS MORNING, SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS OF 5 FEET OR GREATER ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND SEAS
WITHIN THOSE RANGES WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS, ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING A SMALL
VESSEL, SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

IOVINO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1159 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEARING OUR AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
STALL OVER OUR AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
AND STALL OVER OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
GRADUALLY EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND
BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENT HAS GOTTEN WELL UNDERWAY...AND SOME FLOODING HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED IN URBAN AREAS AND SOME OF THE PHILADELPHIA AND WILMINGTON
METROPOLITAN AREA SMALL STREAMS. MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY...MAINLY
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA...AS A CONVERGENCE AXIS WAS IN
THE PROCESS OF SETTING UP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. THE 00Z GUIDANCE
WAS SIMILAR IN THEME TO PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT THE GFS WAS STILL
STRONGER WITH THE LOW MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY. WITH
ALL THAT/S BEEN GOING ON...ONLY A QUICK LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF WAS
TAKEN...AND THE FORCING APPEARS TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS
EUROPEAN SOLUTIONS...BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE GFS. SO,
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL STILL BE FORECAST TODAY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OR TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA. THE NARROW EMBEDDED RAIN BAND
THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH DELAWARE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE...BUT THERE STILL SEEMS LIKE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FORM SOME CONVECTION DURING TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...SO THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MENTION WAS LEFT INTACT. THE
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WAS MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING EARLY
THIS MORNING...SO ONE FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD BE LOSING EFFECT
DURING THE MORNING. AS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO ONE INCH IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND LOCALLY 2 INCHES.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE USED AS IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT RENEWED
RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY EAST. ONE AND A HALF TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES LOCALLY 3 INCHES...INCLUDING WHAT FELL OVERNIGHT...
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ADDITIONAL GENERAL RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES...LOCALLY TWO
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF OUR AREA.

ANOTHER ISSUE WAS THE CAPES THAT THE MODELS SHOWED FOR EASTERN NEW
JERSEY TONIGHT. SINCE THIS WAS JUST NORTH OF THE LOW IN THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ADDED HERE THIS
EVENING. ALSO...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW
OVER NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING AND INTO LATER TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PERHAPS THE STRONGEST WINDS OF NEAR 35 MPH. THIS IS UNDER
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THOUGHT WAS GIVEN TO ISSUANCE OF AN
ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL NEW JERSEY ANYWAY SINCE THE GROUND WILL
BE SATURATED AND SOME TREES OR LIMBS MAY BE DOWNED. STABILITY
EFFECTS WILL NO DOUBT COME INTO PLAY AND KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS
FROM THE SURFACE...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO THINK ABOUT THE
NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES REGARDLESS.

THE LOW SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA MUCH OF
TUESDAY...BUT WILL START TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS AWAY FROM OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE PROGRESS WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS TO
TAKE UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY UNTIL WE ARE CLEAR OF CLOUDS, DRIZZLE
OR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN.

CONTINUITY WAS THE RULE ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER BEING BOMBARDED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN THIS MONTH IT
WILL BE NICE TO SEE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR MASS MOVE INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND KEEP US IN A
DRY PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS. SUNNY WITH FEW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS MAKE FOR A GREAT SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AT THIS POINT
WE DON'T THINK THERE WILL BE TOO MANY COMPLAINTS WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AS THE WEEKEND MAKES ITS APPEARANCE, WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 80S, ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR ON EASTER SUNDAY THAN ON SATURDAY. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 10-15C RANGE /THE ECMWF EVEN HAD
17C FOR SUNDAY/ AND WITH THIS CONTINUITY CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
RISE. THIS TIME OF YEAR, HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS START TO REACH
INTO THE 80S AND QUICK LOOK AT THE BIG 4 CLIMATE SITES SHOWS THAT
APRIL 4 /EASTER SUNDAY/ STILL HAS COOLER RECORDS AT THIS POINT.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY IS THE MOST LIKELY DAY FOR NEAR
RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES.

ALL IN ALL, A GREAT HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR OUR
ENTIRE REGION.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING TO OUR SOUTH. THE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT, HOWEVER IT
APPEARS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WEST OF KTTN TO KILG. THIS
BOUNDARY MAY END UP STAYING PUT OR WEAKEN FURTHER AS LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH BECOMES THE MAIN ENTITY. THIS NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY. LESS IN THE WAY OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE FOR KABE
AND KRDG AS THE MAIN FOCUS IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. HERE THOUGH,
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP BACK IN ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR AREA. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE
CEILINGS BOUNCE AROUND SOME, HOWEVER AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
GENERALLY SWING AROUND TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND TURN RATHER GUSTY FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH. THE WIND
FORECAST CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

OUTLOOK...
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TUESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES AWAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE INCOMING
LOW FROM THE WEST HAS WEAKENED AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
LESSENED. WE NOW AWAIT FOR THE SECOND SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN TO
OUR SOUTH AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP.
THEREFORE, WE LOWERED THE WINDS SOME TOWARD MARGINAL ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A RAMPING UP OF THEM TONIGHT.
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM, GUSTY WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE WATERS. ALSO,
SEAS WILL REMAIN QUITE ROUGH ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD WHEN THE WINDS MAY BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY AS THE CENTER OF
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER AND PASSES OVERHEAD, BUT WE DO EXPECT GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IF
GALES CAN BE REACHED, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR WATERS TONIGHT GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW AND
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW, WE CAPPED GUSTS JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, WINDS MAY STILL BE GUSTY, SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN LATER FORECASTS. HOWEVER, AS
WE GO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE WATERS, KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CONTINUED AS IS...AS HEAVY RAIN HAS AFFECTED
THE METRO AREAS OVERNIGHT...AND THESE SPOTS WILL BE ON THE EDGE
FOR MORE RAIN LATER TODAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL LOOK TO GET MUCH
MORE RAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THIS TIME, RAIN
AMOUNTS MAY NOT GET QUITE TO EARLIER FORECAST AMOUNTS...SO WE'LL
RATCHET DOWN JUST A TAD AND GO WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
LOCALLY 5 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAINLY NORTHEAST.

THE FORECAST RAINFALL WOULD CAUSE MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING OF
THE SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS...WITH A CHANCE OF MAJOR FLOODING
IF RAIN FALLS OVER JUST THE RIGHT SPOTS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY.

REGARDING THE LARGER RIVERS, THE HEADWATER AREAS OF THE DELAWARE,
SUSQUEHANNA AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS LOOK TO BE SPARED HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND THOSE RIVERS WILL LIKELY BE LESS OF A CONCERN WITHIN
THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. THE RARITAN, MILLSTONE, AND THE PASSAIC
RIVERS ARE ANOTHER STORY. FLOODING THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE MINOR
TO MODERATE...WITH A CHANCE OF MAJOR FLOODING AT A SPOT OR TWO.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE ASTRONOMICAL
FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE SSE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NEGATIVE VALUES
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FULL MOON TONIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY, SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. ALSO, WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE EXPECT THROUGH TUESDAY,
THE FRESHWATER RUNOFF MAY ENHANCE ANY TIDAL FLOODING.

THE PHILADELPHIA GAGE EARLY THIS MORNING REACHED MODERATE, AND
THIS APPEARED TO BE ENHANCED FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW UP THE BAY
AND LOWER DELAWARE RIVER. THIS PROLONGED FLOW IS NO LONGER EXPECTED,
THEREFORE THE TIDE LEVELS SHOULD COME DOWN SOME, HOWEVER THE
FRESHWATER RUNOFF MAY COUNTERACT THAT SOME.

THE TIDES IN CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING RATHER HIGH, HOWEVER
NOW THAT THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ENDED, WE WILL MAINTAIN
THE ADVISORY FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. ALL OF THIS HOWEVER WILL BE
MONITORED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ067>071.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-016>027.
DE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS.../
NEAR TERM.../
SHORT TERM...DELISI/
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY.../DELISI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ROBERTSON/GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

NJZ008>010-015-PAZ067>069-300745-
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

DEZ001-NJZ012>014-016>027-PAZ070-071-300745-
NEW CASTLE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-300745-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALSO, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-300745-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ALSO, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

ANZ430-431-450>455-300745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
336 AM EDT MON MAR 29 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.