Freeze Watch 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

963 
WWUS71 KPHI 100015
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
815 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101000-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.100510T0400Z-100510T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON
815 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EDT MONDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL
8:00 AM MONDAY. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK IN SECTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PLEASE PROTECT YOUR PLANTS BY COVERING THEM
OR BRINGING THEM INDOORS.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PLEASE CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING PASSES.

&&

$$

685 
WWUS71 KPHI 100835
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
435 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

PAZ060-061-102100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100510T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
BERKS-LEHIGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...ALLENTOWN
435 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
FREEZE WARNING. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES DO NOT APPEAR AS IF
THEY WILL HIT THE FREEZING MARK THIS MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCAL AREAS THAT GET CLOSE. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT, SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PLEASE PROTECT YOUR PLANTS BY COVERING THEM
OR BRINGING THEM INDOORS.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PLEASE CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING PASSES.

&&

$$

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-062-102100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100510T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
435 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE FREEZING
MARK THIS MORNING IN SECTIONS OF THE LEHIGH VALLEY... THE POCONOS
AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE FREEZING
MARK AGAIN TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. PLEASE PROTECT YOUR PLANTS BY COVERING THEM
OR BRINGING THEM INDOORS.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PLEASE CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING PASSES.

&&

$$

867 
WWUS71 KPHI 101200
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-062-102100-
/O.EXP.KPHI.FZ.W.0003.000000T0000Z-100510T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
800 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

THE FREEZE WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING. A FREEZE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. 

THE THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS OVER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE
AIR MASS OVER US WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PLEASE CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING PASSES.

&&

$$

PAZ060-061-102100-
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
BERKS-LEHIGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...READING...ALLENTOWN
800 AM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. 

TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK TONIGHT AS THE AIR MASS
OVER US REMAINS UNSEASONABLY COOL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
PLEASE CONTINUE PROTECTIVE MEASURES UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING PASSES.

&&

$$

999 
WWUS71 KPHI 101832
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

NJZ001-007-009-PAZ054-055-060>062-110900-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0004.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY MORNING NEAR 30 DEGREES, WITH SOME MID 20S
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS. AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO
LIKELY TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY
LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION. PLEASE KEEP TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES INDOORS. PLEASE TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR VEGETATION
THAT CAN NOT BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

&&

$$

NJZ020>022-027-110900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0004.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
WHARTON STATE FOREST
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE PINE BARRENS SHOULD COME CLOSE TO 30
DEGREES ON TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FROST ARE ALSO LIKELY THROUGHOUT
THE AREA, EVEN IN PLACES NOT IN THE PINE BARRENS WHERE LOW
TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT REACH 32 DEGREES.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. WHERE POSSIBLE, BRING TROPICAL PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES INDOORS. PLEASE TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES FOR VEGETATION
THAT CAN NOT BE BROUGHT INDOORS.

&&

$$

NJZ008-010-110900-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0002.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
MORRIS-SOMERSET-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...SOMERVILLE
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 
 
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERMIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF MORRIS
AND SOMERSET COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST LIKELY BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. WHERE POSSIBLE PLEASE
BRING INDOOR TEMPERATURE AND FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES. 

&&

$$

PAZ067>069-110900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERMIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PARTS OF CHESTER,
MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST LIKELY BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. WHERE POSSIBLE PLEASE
BRING INDOOR TEMPERATURE AND FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES. 

&&

$$

DEZ001-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-110900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
NEW CASTLE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...
TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...
MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 
 
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERMIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE MID 30S IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE
SOME SUBFREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE NEW JERSEY PINE
BARRENS. THE COMBINATION OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL MAKE AREAS OF FROST LIKELY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. WHERE POSSIBLE PLEASE
BRING INDOOR TEMPERATURE AND FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES. 

&&

$$

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ023-110900-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FR.Y.0006.100511T0400Z-100511T1200Z/
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
CAPE MAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...ELKTON...
CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE
232 PM EDT MON MAY 10 2010

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY. 

AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS WILL PERMIT LOW TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY MORNING TO REACH THE MID 30S IN MOST PLACES. THE COMBINATION 
OF NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE AREAS OF
FROST LIKELY BY TUESDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE DELAWARE AND
CHESAPEAKE BAYS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MIGHT BE PROTECTED FROM THE
FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. WHERE POSSIBLE PLEASE
BRING INDOOR TEMPERATURE AND FROST SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
VEGETABLES.

&&

$$

DELISI/GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY AND
THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL
THEN STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CLEAR CUT INITIALIZATION WINNER THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
WRF-NMM. THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER ON THE
WEST COAST, BUT THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS LOOKED BETTER LOCALLY.
WHILE WE'D LIKE TO FOLLOW THE WRF-NMM MORE CLOSELY BECAUSE OF THE
FORMER, ITS SOLUTION STARTS BECOMING INCONSISTENT TUE NGT, SO WE
WILL FOLLOW A GFS/WRF-NMM BLEND FOR THIS OUTPUT.

THE STEP DOWN PROCESS WITH THE WINDS AND STEP UP PROCESS IN LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. THE FORECAST
GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 06Z. THIS IS THE USUAL SPEED FOR DECOUPLING AND
MAKES FOR A TOUGH TEMP FORECAST BECAUSE DEW POINTS ARE SO
UNSEASONABLY LOW. THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX SLOWS THE PROGRESSION OF
RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS SOMETIMES DOES REDUCE THE
WIND. SO WE DECIDED TO NUDGE THE FREEZE WARNING INTO BERKS COUNTY.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLAGS IN THE PINE BARRENS AND OTHER
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH WIND INTO THE NIGHT FOR MUCH FROST. FCST MINS ARE GOING TO BE
CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA ON MONDAY. FCST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE VERY HIGH AND THE CAA IS DONE, SO VERY FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. THE H2.5 JET WILL BE MOVING
OVERHEAD, SO THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS THAT FORMS OR ADVECTS ALONG
IT. WHILE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER
THAN TODAY, THEY SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. STAT GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS BASED ON SIDING WITH THE WARMER WRF-NMM
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS. IRONICALLY OR NOT THE GFS IS COLDER AT 850MB AND
ITS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BUT ITS STAT GUIDANCE IS HIGHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DECOUPLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES ANY CIRRUS ADVECT EWD AS TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL VALUES FOR FROST AND OR FREEZE. THE FORECAST RIDGE ITSELF
IS NOT SHARP, BUT HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP ON RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN SPITE OF THE LIGHT WINDS, MOS GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH THE
MINS WHICH MAY BE EITHER A REFLECTION OF CLIMO OR HIGHER FCST
THICKNESSES (TU OKX). SINCE THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SIMILAR MIN TEMPS TO TONIGHT. UP
NORTH BECAUSE THE AIR MASS IS SO CHILLY, THE QUESTION MAY BE MORE
OF FREEZE THAN FROST IN THE LONG RUN. IN THE SOUTHEAST IT MAY BE
MORE OF A FROST QUESTION. SINCE WE DO NOT PUT UP THIRD PERIOD
FROST ADVISORIES AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH BECAUSE OF
ABOVE, WE WILL JUST MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO. UP NORTH
CONFIDENCE IS MDT AND WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH ATTM.

ON TUESDAY THERE IS CLOSER MODEL CONSENSUS TO THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
ARRIVING WITH LATE IN THE DAY THE OPERATIVE WORD. THIS IS THE
CLOSEST THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMM HAVE BEEN SINCE THE PCPN HAS
ARRIVED WITHIN 84HRS OF MDL INPUT. THE FORECAST SFC LOW IS SLOWER FOR
TUE NGT VS YESTERDAY'S DAY RUN. THERE IS PRETTY MASSIVE FORECAST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 250MB. IT
STILL BECOMES A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN GETS
MOISTENED. WITH THE LOW SLOWER, WE HAVE ALSO LOWER THE POPS AND
EMPHASIZED MORE OF A LATE IN THE DAY ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE FORECAST
1000-850MB THICKNESSES EVEN WITH CLOUDS INCREASING, STAT GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW FOR MAX TEMPS.

IN SPITE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF FIELDS,
BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAVE THE EXIT REGION OF THE H2.5 JET IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS FAVORS THE GFS HEAVIER QPF PLACEMENT
OVER THE WRF-NMM. WE DID SCALE BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TREND IN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS MORE STABLE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR CWA. THIS HAS THE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME 10-20F GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH BIG TIME TEMP
ERRORS POSSIBLE. IF WE DO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THE FORECAST
THETA E RDG, 30 TO 40 KT BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2 WOULD FAVOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. THIS
WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME THAT THE INSTABILITY WOULD COINCIDE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THIS SPRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ALONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL START
TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DRY US OUT FOR
MOST OF THURSDAY. THE HIGH DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE MUCH STAYING POWER,
ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS LOW AS
WELL. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY
KEEP A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SATURDAY DAY DRY AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY EVENING,
AS A WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE RAINING
THE ENTIRE TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GRADUALLY WARM UP
STARTING WITH UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AND RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE WEEKEND. AS
USUAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCT TO BKN SC IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. W TO NW
WINDS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
TODAY. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
5 TO 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LESS CLOUDINESS
MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW TO SCT SC AND GOOD VSBY. W TO NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BUT ONLY TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
AND BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AND LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL CHANGE
THE GALE WARNING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL OF OUR WATERS
WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST, THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL LOWER THE
ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DEL BAY AT MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IT WILL COME
DOWN AT 6 AM MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MIGHT NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO OR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY IF LATER COMPUTER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME. THE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FROM A SE TO S DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT. WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. AGAIN WE WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE REACHED RED FLAG WAENING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DROP AND WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOR MONDAY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER, THE
FUELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL DRY, WITH THE ONE CAVEAT BEING THE WIND.
THE FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 20S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUS WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS SEEM POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AS EVEN THE POCONOS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWER. THE POTENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO HELP TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060>062-
     067>071.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012-013-015>023-027.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

NJZ007>010-PAZ061-062-101445-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.
   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND
SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-101445-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-101445-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FREEZE WARNING.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012-013-015>023-027-PAZ060-
067>071-101445-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   RED FLAG WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-101445-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-101445-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TFG