Fire Weather Watch 6, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Caroline County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Berks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT SUN MAY 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY AND
THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL
THEN STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE PLAINS
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BUILD IN FOR THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CLEAR CUT INITIALIZATION WINNER THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
WRF-NMM. THE WRF-NMM INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER ON THE
WEST COAST, BUT THE GFS THERMAL FIELDS LOOKED BETTER LOCALLY.
WHILE WE'D LIKE TO FOLLOW THE WRF-NMM MORE CLOSELY BECAUSE OF THE
FORMER, ITS SOLUTION STARTS BECOMING INCONSISTENT TUE NGT, SO WE
WILL FOLLOW A GFS/WRF-NMM BLEND FOR THIS OUTPUT.

THE STEP DOWN PROCESS WITH THE WINDS AND STEP UP PROCESS IN LESS
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA. THE FORECAST
GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 06Z. THIS IS THE USUAL SPEED FOR DECOUPLING AND
MAKES FOR A TOUGH TEMP FORECAST BECAUSE DEW POINTS ARE SO
UNSEASONABLY LOW. THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX SLOWS THE PROGRESSION OF
RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THIS SOMETIMES DOES REDUCE THE
WIND. SO WE DECIDED TO NUDGE THE FREEZE WARNING INTO BERKS COUNTY.
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLAGS IN THE PINE BARRENS AND OTHER
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE TOO
MUCH WIND INTO THE NIGHT FOR MUCH FROST. FCST MINS ARE GOING TO BE
CLOSER TO NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL COME CLOSER TO OUR CWA ON MONDAY. FCST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE VERY HIGH AND THE CAA IS DONE, SO VERY FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. THE H2.5 JET WILL BE MOVING
OVERHEAD, SO THERE COULD BE SOME CIRRUS THAT FORMS OR ADVECTS ALONG
IT. WHILE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS ON AVERAGE WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH LOWER
THAN TODAY, THEY SHOULD STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW. STAT GUIDANCE
LOOKS GOOD FOR MAX TEMPS BASED ON SIDING WITH THE WARMER WRF-NMM
FORECAST 850MB TEMPS. IRONICALLY OR NOT THE GFS IS COLDER AT 850MB AND
ITS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BUT ITS STAT GUIDANCE IS HIGHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THE WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DECOUPLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES ANY CIRRUS ADVECT EWD AS TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO
CRITICAL VALUES FOR FROST AND OR FREEZE. THE FORECAST RIDGE ITSELF
IS NOT SHARP, BUT HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO KEEP ON RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. IN SPITE OF THE LIGHT WINDS, MOS GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH THE
MINS WHICH MAY BE EITHER A REFLECTION OF CLIMO OR HIGHER FCST
THICKNESSES (TU OKX). SINCE THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTION, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SIMILAR MIN TEMPS TO TONIGHT. UP
NORTH BECAUSE THE AIR MASS IS SO CHILLY, THE QUESTION MAY BE MORE
OF FREEZE THAN FROST IN THE LONG RUN. IN THE SOUTHEAST IT MAY BE
MORE OF A FROST QUESTION. SINCE WE DO NOT PUT UP THIRD PERIOD
FROST ADVISORIES AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH BECAUSE OF
ABOVE, WE WILL JUST MAKE MENTION OF IT IN THE HWO. UP NORTH
CONFIDENCE IS MDT AND WE WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH ATTM.

ON TUESDAY THERE IS CLOSER MODEL CONSENSUS TO THE TIMING OF THE PCPN
ARRIVING WITH LATE IN THE DAY THE OPERATIVE WORD. THIS IS THE
CLOSEST THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMM HAVE BEEN SINCE THE PCPN HAS
ARRIVED WITHIN 84HRS OF MDL INPUT. THE FORECAST SFC LOW IS SLOWER FOR
TUE NGT VS YESTERDAY'S DAY RUN. THERE IS PRETTY MASSIVE FORECAST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 250MB. IT
STILL BECOMES A QUESTION OF HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN GETS
MOISTENED. WITH THE LOW SLOWER, WE HAVE ALSO LOWER THE POPS AND
EMPHASIZED MORE OF A LATE IN THE DAY ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE FORECAST
1000-850MB THICKNESSES EVEN WITH CLOUDS INCREASING, STAT GUIDANCE
LOOKS TOO LOW FOR MAX TEMPS.

IN SPITE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF FIELDS,
BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAVE THE EXIT REGION OF THE H2.5 JET IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS FAVORS THE GFS HEAVIER QPF PLACEMENT
OVER THE WRF-NMM. WE DID SCALE BACK THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE TREND IN THE FORECAST INSTABILITY ALOFT OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS MORE STABLE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR WEDNESDAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE BECAUSE OF THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR CWA. THIS HAS THE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME 10-20F GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH BIG TIME TEMP
ERRORS POSSIBLE. IF WE DO GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THE FORECAST
THETA E RDG, 30 TO 40 KT BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES OF AROUND
150 M2/S2 WOULD FAVOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR CWA. THIS
WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME THAT THE INSTABILITY WOULD COINCIDE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING THIS SPRING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ALONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL START
TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DRY US OUT FOR
MOST OF THURSDAY. THE HIGH DOESN'T SEEM TO HAVE MUCH STAYING POWER,
ESPECIALLY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THIS LOW AS
WELL. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY
KEEP A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
SATURDAY DAY DRY AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR SATURDAY EVENING,
AS A WEAK LOW MAY FORM ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY.

ALTHOUGH WE HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECASTED THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED, IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE RAINING
THE ENTIRE TIME.

MAX TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GRADUALLY WARM UP
STARTING WITH UPPER 60S ON THURSDAY AND RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S INTO THE WEEKEND. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S AND RISE TO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY THE WEEKEND. AS
USUAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NEW JERSEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCT TO BKN SC IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. W TO NW
WINDS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT
TODAY. SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND BY MIDNIGHT SHOULD BE
5 TO 10 KT. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SETTLE
OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LESS CLOUDINESS
MONDAY WITH ONLY A FEW TO SCT SC AND GOOD VSBY. W TO NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP AGAIN BUT ONLY TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD VSBY AND LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY.
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY
THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
AND BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ACROSS ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AND LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON, SO WILL CHANGE
THE GALE WARNING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON ALL OF OUR WATERS
WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST, THE
DIMINISHING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL LOWER THE
ADVISORY ON THE UPPER DEL BAY AT MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IT WILL COME
DOWN AT 6 AM MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MIGHT NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO OR THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY IF LATER COMPUTER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME. THE NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BUT GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 25 KT. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER OUR
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY FROM A SE TO S DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHT. WE COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS TO OUR NORTH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH LATE
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK TO OUR NORTH
AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS ON FRIDAY. AGAIN WE WILL MORE
THAN LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE REACHED RED FLAG WAENING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CONTINUE TO
DROP AND WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. FOR MONDAY THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE LOWER, THE
FUELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STILL DRY, WITH THE ONE CAVEAT BEING THE WIND.
THE FORECAST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 20S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THUS WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS SEEM POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT OUR CWA AS EVEN THE POCONOS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IF THE CURRENT FORECAST VERIFIES. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER ON TUESDAY AND WINDS SHOULD BE
LOWER. THE POTENTIAL RAIN WILL ALSO HELP TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060>062-
     067>071.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ007>010-
     012-013-015>023-027.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001>003.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...RPW
MARINE...RPW
FIRE WEATHER...GIGI

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