Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

861 
WWUS71 KPHI 221916
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-230915-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0001.100623T1500Z-100624T1000Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.A.0001.100624T1000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
316 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY
TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. 

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH TO BRING
EVEN HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN
HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS WHERE THEY MIGHT NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE 80
DEGREE MARK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
MEANS THAT HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES
ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN. CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY AND THE INFIRM...TO MAKE SURE
THAT THEY ARE PROTECTED FROM THE HEAT.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION...SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER. THE
MOST HUMANE THING TO DO WITH PETS IS TO BRING THEM INTO AN AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

PLEASE NEVER LEAVE ANY PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

&&

$$

376 
WWUS71 KPHI 230756
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-232100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.EH.A.0001.100624T1000Z-100625T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.EH.W.0001.100623T1500Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
356 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. 

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
HIGH IS HOT AND HUMID. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY
ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 
100 DEGREES. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS WHERE THEY
MIGHT NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH
MEANS THAT HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES
ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED
ROOM...AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN. CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND
NEIGHBORS...ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY AND THE INFIRM...TO MAKE SURE
THAT THEY ARE PROTECTED FROM THE HEAT.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION...SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER. THE
MOST HUMANE THING TO DO WITH PETS IS TO BRING THEM INTO AN AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

PLEASE NEVER LEAVE ANY PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME.


&&

$$

781 
WWUS71 KPHI 231500
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-232300-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1100 AM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH IS HOT AND
HUMID. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT
IN HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS WHERE THEY MIGHT NOT DROP MUCH BELOW THE
80 DEGREE MARK.

A WEAK COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR.

HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A
DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...AND STAY OUT
OF THE SUN. CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS...ESPECIALLY THE
ELDERLY AND THE INFIRM...TO MAKE SURE THAT THEY ARE PROTECTED FROM
THE HEAT.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION...SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER. THE
MOST HUMANE THING TO DO WITH PETS IS TO BRING THEM INTO AN AIR
CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENT.

PLEASE NEVER LEAVE ANY PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR
ANY LENGTH OF TIME.

&&

$$

153 
WWUS71 KPHI 231850
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
250 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-241000-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
250 PM EDT WED JUN 23 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM
THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES ROSE INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO DROP ONLY INTO THE 70S. IN HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS, READINGS
MAY NOT FALL MUCH BELOW THE 80 DEGREE MARK TONIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO REACH
THE MIDDLE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 80S WITH NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE A
THREAT. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
LOCATION AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN, IF POSSIBLE. CHECK ON ELDERLY
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION, SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER.

NEVER LEAVE A PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME DURING EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER.

&&

$$

IOVINO

021 
WWUS71 KPHI 240752
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-242100-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
352 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

ONE LAST DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN THE URBANIZED AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE
A THREAT. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
LOCATION AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN... IF POSSIBLE. CHECK ON ELDERLY
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION... SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER.

NEVER LEAVE A PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME DURING EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER.

&&

$$

029 
WWUS71 KPHI 241437
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-250000-
/O.CON.KPHI.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1037 AM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

ONE LAST DAY OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S IN MOST AREAS
WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 IN THE URBANIZED AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF
FROM THE OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND STRONG
TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL COMBINE TO
CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES ARE
A THREAT. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED
LOCATION AND STAY OUT OF THE SUN... IF POSSIBLE. CHECK ON ELDERLY
RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

MAKE SURE THAT PETS AND DOMESTIC ANIMALS HAVE ACCESS TO GOOD
VENTILATION... SHADE FROM THE SUN AND PLENTY OF COOL WATER.

NEVER LEAVE A PERSON OR ANIMAL IN A PARKED VEHICLE FOR ANY LENGTH
OF TIME DURING EXCESSIVELY HOT WEATHER.

&&

$$

GIGI

290 
WWUS71 KPHI 242044
NPWPHI

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
444 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-242145-
/O.CAN.KPHI.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100625T0000Z/
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...TRENTON...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...WEST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
444 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
IN THE URBAN AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS FURTHER. A WARM BUT LESS HUMID DAY IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PULL A
WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING INCREASED HEAT
AND HUMIDITY INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT LOOK TO
APPROACH TO OUR NORTH TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE, THAT MAY OR MAY NOT BE
TAPPED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THE SHORT WAVE AND LOWER
LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION IT IS HELPING TO GENERATE ARE TRIGGERING
SOMETHING OF A MCS TO OUR WEST, AND THERE MAY BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEBRIS CLOUDS PASSING OVER OUR NORTHERN LOCALES FOR AT LEAST A
PART OF THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO KEEP THE BEST OF THE THETA E
ADVECTION MAINLY NORTHWEST OF US TODAY, AND FURTHER SOUTH THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS STRONGER. KEEPING CHANCE POPS
NORTHWEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR BASICALLY
MAINTAINS CONTINUITY AND CONFORMS TO MODEL INDICATIONS, AND SO
THAT IS OUR FORECAST. SPC IS PUTTING US IN A SLIGHT RISK ON DAY 1
/LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING/, AND IF WE TAP THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO WORK WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO GENERATE SOME STRONG STORMS. IT IS THE
TENUOUS NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT
MAKES US A BIT CONSERVATIVE IN THE GRIDS, BUT WE WILL KEEP THE
ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO.

A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND GUIDANCE JIVES WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND NAM H925 TEMPERATURE INDICATIONS AND WAS FOLLOWED.
THE INITIALLY LIGHT H925 WIND SHOULD ALLOW A DECENT SEA BREEZE TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF AND KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT, THE 00Z ECMWF, LIKE THE 12Z RUN, IT RATHER FAR NORTH
WITH THE SHORT WAVE, ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE GOOD THETA E
ADVECTION, THE LAST OF WHICH JUST BRUSHES OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES.
THE 00Z NAM IS FURTHER SOUTH AND HAS A GOOD HALF OF OUR AREA UNDER
DECENT FORCING AND ASSOCIATED DECENT THETA E ADVECTION. HPC HAS
FAVORED THE 21Z SREF, WHICH LOOKS LIKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO. THIS HAS MADE US PAINT A POP GRADIENT THAT GOES FROM LIKELY
OVER THE NORTHERN QUARTER TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA /WE STILL RESPECT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH/. CERTAINLY, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER, WE HAVE THE SAME
CONCERN OVER THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY, AND OUR SOLUTION IS TO
CARRY OVER THE ENHANCED WORDING IN THE HWO INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SURFACE LOW PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH ON ALL MODELS IS EXPECTED
TO PULL A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH THIS IN MIND WE
HAVE COME DOWN ON THE HIGHER END OF STAT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

CONDITIONS DON'T SEEM TO BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES UP TOWARD OUR AREA. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING SOME AWFULLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM H925 TO H7,
AND WITH THE EXPECTED SUNSHINE AND THE INDICATIONS FROM STAT
GUIDANCE WE HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO A
WARNING FOR THE URBANIZED PARTS OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY. WE WILL
ALSO FOLLOW THE STAT GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
OR LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT WEAK
COLD FRONT STILL TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY, WE HAVE
UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
HAVE SOME RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS.

ON THURSDAY, THE MODELS DROP A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO THE AREA
THAT MOVES IN TANDEM WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL IMPULSE, AND FOR
NOW WE FORECAST HIGH CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. AGAIN, WE ARE TRYING TO PAY SOME RESPECT TO THE STRONG
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE THURSDAY SYSTEM,
SUCH AS IT IS, WILL GENERATE ENOUGH CLOUDS OR BRING IN ENOUGH COLD
AIR TO GIVE THE LOWER DELAWARE VALLEY ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT IN
THE SHORT TERM, BUT WE ARE KEEPING THURSDAY UNDER A HEAT WATCH FOR
NOW IN CASE INDICATIONS CHANGE FOR THE BETTER. RIGHT NOW,FRANKLY,
THURSDAY LOOKS ABOUT AS BAD AS WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT
PERHAPS UP NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
***RESPITE BUT HEAT WILL BE LURKING ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND EITHER
 NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY***

KPHL DID REACH 90 TODAY AND THAT WILL POST IN THE 530PM CLIPHL.
THE MAKINGS OF A HEAT WAVE RIVALING OR EXCEEDING THAT OF EARLY
JUNE /2-6/ ARE IN THE MAKING FOR AT LEAST PHL. PROBABLY HINGES ON
THE TUE MAX FOR KPHL.

GEORGETOWN DELAWARE ALREADY 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH OUR FCST
INDICATING THE HEAT WAVE THERE TO LAST AT LEAST 6 DAYS. E OR SSE
FLOW IS INDICATED ATTM TO PREVENT 90F FRIDAY.

THE PATTERN OVERALL FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE ONE OR 2 DAY RESPITE OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CENTERED ON SATURDAY.

THE WNW FLOW CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL CONTINUE BUT MAY EASILY REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF STORMS IN THIS PERIOD.

AS IT STANDS NOW...BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NEXT SUNDAY
AND/OR MONDAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE FCST ISSUED AT 4 PM WAS THE HPC OFFERINGS FOR THIS PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FCST IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE DAILIES...

THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK CFP.  EFFECTIVELY WE PROBABLY WONT NOTICE ANY
COOLING.

FRIDAY...SHOULD BE A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE BUT STILL A CHANCE OF
90-92F PHL SOUTH /NON MARINE INFLUENCED/.  LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MAYBE THE NICEST DAY WITH COMBINED SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE WARMTH  /VERY WARM/.

SUNDAY/MONDAY...90-95 HEAT/HUMIDITY TRIES TO RETURN.  DETAILS TBD.
FOR NOW I DON'T KNOW WHICH DAY IS THE HOTTEST NOR WHICH DAY IS THE
WORST OF THE HEAT INDEX BUT A HEAT EVENT DAY IS POSSIBLE EITHER OF
THESE DAYS AS SFC TEMPS AND DEW POINTS MAY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF
THIS THURSDAY JUNE 24.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT WINDS AND A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY TODAY. A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ATTACHED WARM FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE RAINS IS TRICKY
SINCE IT IS TIED TO THE ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVES IN THE UPPER WRLY
FLOW. THE DIFFERENT MODELS TREAT THE PLACEMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES DIFFERENTLY. OVERALL...THE LEHIGH VALLEY TAF SITES
HAVE A BETTER CHC AT SEEING THE CONVECTION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO S THIS AFTERNOON. A SEA BREEZE AT KACY
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SE WINDS THERE.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS/TSTMS END OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG/HAZE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO A MAINLY
HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST. VSBYS
WILL BE LOWEST IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SHOWERS TODAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
A MAINLY VFR FLYING WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED WED...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM. RESTRICTIONS WITH HZ POSSIBLE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THU AS ANOTHER LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE ACROSS THE WATERS
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE EAST TODAY AND WINDS WILL
BECOME SRLY OR SERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS WILL PICK UP TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT FLAGS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES MAY POSE HAZARDS FOR SMALLER VESSELS
IN THE TSTMS...SO CHECK THE LATEST FCSTS BEFORE GOING OUT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH WED AND THU WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SRLY OR SWRLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS THU NGT WITH SCAT TSTMS. WRLY WINDS AND IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR FRI.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORDS HIGHS FOR OUR FOUR LCD SITES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY RESPECTIVELY...PHL...97 IN 1888 AND 99 IN 1923...ABE...95
IN 1965 AND 98 IN 1923...ACY...98 IN 1988 AND 96 IN 1966...
ILG...100 IN 1894 AND 102 IN 1894.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ067>071.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ067>071.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-017>019.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...O'HARA
MARINE...O'HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG/DELISI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

DEZ004-NJZ016-222015-
DELAWARE BEACHES-SALEM-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ017>019-PAZ067>071-222015-
NEW CASTLE-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-012>014-020>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-222015-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ015-222015-
MERCER-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-222015-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-222015-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
401 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.