Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
405 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...
DELAYED AND ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION OF THE CURRENT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ FROM
DISCRETE/LINE SEGMENT SEVERE STORMS TO A MORE BROAD-BRUSHED HEAVY
RAIN EVENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE 12KM NAM
AND SREF GUIDANCE APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE MCS AND WERE FOLLOWED IN THE SHORT TERM.

ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE WFO PAH CWA BY 15Z
/10 AM CDT/ THURSDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE BEYOND THAT TIME. FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ADDED AN
OCCURRENCE OF PATCHY FROST TO NORTHWEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA...AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO
SUPPORT SOME SURFACE CRYSTALLIZATION.

IN THE LONGER TERM...UTILIZED A BLEND OF ECMWF AND EXTENDED WRF
GUIDANCE TO IMPLY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER. AT THIS
TIME...WITH THE RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA...DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES BETWEEN 20 AND 27 DEGREES WILL CAN BE EXPECTED...AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS DO NOT ADVECT IN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONSIDERATION WITH THE 18Z WEDNESDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE AND
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER EACH OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH 03Z THURSDAY /10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY/. MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AN
HOUR OR LESS OVER KCGI AND POSSIBLY KPAH BETWEEN 21Z WEDNESDAY AND
00Z THURSDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT
AFTER THAT TIME...LENDING TO A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOWER
CEILINGS AT KEVV/KOWB THIS EVENING. ONCE THE CONVECTIVE LINE OF
STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES THIS EVENING...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 2-3KFT AGL WILL PERSIST AS COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS REDEVELOP DURING THE LATTER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GM/SMITH
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/FIRE WEATHER...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
142 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
142 PM CDT WED APR 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL CLOSE TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD WILL
LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO HEAVY RAINFALL...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY...WHERE 1 TO 2
INCHES COULD FALL DURING THE EVENING.

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
RIVERS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR THURSDAY...PATCHY FROST COULD
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS MAY WISH TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS CLOSELY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD INFORMATION...REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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