Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

.AVIATION...
STILL APPEARS TO BE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE TSRA IN CENTRAL OK THIS
EVENING WITH PERHAPS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF RAIN MOST OTHER SITES TO
PUT TEMPO FOR A FEW HRS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WILL BRING IN SOME
LOW MVFR CEILINGS IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST SITES OVERNIGHT...
BREAKING THEM UP BY 18Z. WILL ALSO BRING WINDS BACK AROUND TO SE BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SFC RIDGE MOVES EAST THROUGH WESTERN OK.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010/

.DISCUSSION...
OUR FOCUS IS PRIMARILY ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH REACHED
A LINE FROM SOUTH OF SEYMOUR TEXAS TO AROUND COALGATE OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO VENTURE NORTHWARD. AS THIS
OCCURS...A DRYLINE NOW LOCATED FROM NEAR LUBBOCK TO AROUND
SWEETWATER TEXAS WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EASTWARD ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL
VORT MAX NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN NM. STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG
THE DRYLINE...AFFECTING OUR WESTERN NORTH TX COUNTIES BY 5-6 PM.
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE RAIN...LIKELY WITH SOME THUNDER NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE OKC METRO...EXPANDING AND MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN.

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WAS LOADED IN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE LEADING EDGE
OF A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
MOVE EAST AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE CWA WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
PASS NORTH OF OK/N TX WITH A BRIEF SHOT AT SOME RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TAYLOR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  38  59  35  63 /  50  10   0  10
HOBART OK         35  57  34  62 /  30   0   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  40  65  36  75 /  20   0   0  10
GAGE OK           29  55  31  62 /  20   0   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     35  53  32  61 /  50  20   0  10
DURANT OK         43  62  40  70 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

23/03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
440 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
440 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...SOUTH-CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SEVERE STORM RISK AREA COVERS LOCATIONS NEAR AND EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WAURIKA...TO PAULS VALLEY...TO SEMINOLE.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY WARM AND HUMID AIR REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THIS IS WHERE THERE WILL
BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE STORMS. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE LOWER DUE TO LESS MOISTURE AND THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS. THE MAIN FORCING FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL STORM
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY JAN 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60  PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
517 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

OKZ052-202330-
BRYAN OK-
517 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR BRYAN COUNTY.

AT 516 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CARTWRIGHT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 3379 9651 3381 9652 3383 9659 3385 9662
      3390 9659 3390 9658 3397 9658 3399 9659
      3412 9652 3409 9630 3378 9650

CJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
529 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

OKZ051-052-202345-
BRYAN OK-MARSHALL OK-
529 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WESTERN BRYAN AND EASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES.

AT 529 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN LAKE
TEXOMA...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...

LAT...LON 3389 9660 3391 9667 3413 9657 3412 9646
      3413 9645 3413 9636 3386 9649

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
614 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

OKZ018-024-210030-
KINGFISHER OK-CANADIAN OK-
614 PM CST WED JAN 20 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR WESTERN CANADIAN AND
SOUTHWEST KINGFISHER COUNTIES.

AT 613 PM CST...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM EXTENDED ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN CANADIAN COUNTY... WITH THE STRONGEST STORM LOCATED NEAR
CALUMET. THE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH...

LAT...LON 3580 9792 3537 9811 3555 9831 3557 9831
      3573 9823 3573 9820 3577 9820 3584 9817

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