Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1017 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WE EARLIER EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK TO THE NORTH... AND
FOR AN ADDITIONAL 9 HOURS. THIS WAS DUE TO FAIRLY CONSISTENT
FORECASTS FROM SHORT-TERM MODELS THAT SHOW HEAVY AFTERNOON RAINS
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR
CHANDLER TO NORMAN TO VERNON TEXAS. PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL WAS
ALSO CONSIDERED IN THE EXTENSIONS.

OTHERWISE... NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING. SOME
UPDATES MAY BE FORTHCOMING THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2010/

AVIATION...
CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIANCE
OVER SHORT TIME/SPACE SCALES. IN GENERAL THE LOWEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS S OK AND N TX WITH MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR BREAKS
ACROSS N OK... BUT WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING VERY MOIST WE ARE APT
TO SEE LOWER CLOUDS FILL IN WITH ONLY MINIMAL DIURNAL HEATING.
EXTENSIVE MOIST LAYER PROGGED TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW AS MID LEVELS
START TO DRY OVER CENTRAL/N OK TONIGHT... BUT IF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
ERODE THAT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS
TONIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS. AS SUCH WE HAVE BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS
BACK INTO MOST AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2010/

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL TRIM BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/QPF GUIDANCE. POPS WILL BE
DECREASING OVER TIME AND FROM N TO S... BUT AS LONG AS THE
OVERABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE PERSISTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS LIES WELL TO OUR S WE WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REMOVE THEM
COMPLETELY. PREVAILING WNW FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE FORM OF
MAINLY-NIGHTTIME COMPLEXES SO WE WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER... MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH BUILDING AND SHIFTING N TO EXERT MORE INFLUENCE ON
THE AREA. THIS WOULD HELP DRY US OUT AND BRING THE HIGHS BACK TO
MORE TYPICAL JULY LEVELS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME
OUR ABUNDANT GROUND MOISTURE AND WELL-WATERED VEGETATION WILL HELP
KEEP THE HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  71  90  70 /  60  20  20  10
HOBART OK         85  70  88  71 /  50  20  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  85  72  89  72 /  70  40  30  10
GAGE OK           84  62  89  69 /  20  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     86  68  90  72 /  30  10  10  10
DURANT OK         87  73  86  72 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ018>048-
     050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

23/26

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