Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
238 PM CDT THU JUL 8 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST IS OBVIOUSLY THE RAIN. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA... WITH MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE RAIN IS RE-FOCUSING ALONG A
STATIONARY WIND SHIFT LINE THAT IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO... AND ABOUT
ONE COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF... I-44. AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PROGRESS... THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS LINE... BUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO FOCUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH... WE WILL TRIM SOME OF THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES FROM THE WATCH THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
ANTECEDENT RAINFALL AND EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
WAS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION FOR THE WATCH. FOR THE MOST PART...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FALL OVER THE AREAS THAT CAN
MOST AFFORD THE RAIN. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
RAIN... AND THE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES... FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR THOSE COUNTIES STILL IN THE WATCH.
AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THAT THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WILL BE OUR TEXAS COUNTIES... AND
THOSE FROM LOVE NORTHEAST TO COAL AND ATOKA. THE COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WATCH ARE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE SERIOUS
FLOODING.

AS THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WEAKENS FURTHER TOMORROW... AND AS THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR
RAIN... THE RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. HOWEVER... THEY
REALLY NEVER GO AWAY COMPLETELY THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

OTHERWISE... MODIFICATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE MINIMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  85  69  89 /  80  60  20  10
HOBART OK         68  85  68  89 /  70  60  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  73  86  72  91 /  90  70  30  30
GAGE OK           63  85  61  91 /  50  30  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     68  86  67  88 /  70  40  10  10
DURANT OK         74  85  72  90 /  80  80  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR OKZ013-014-016-
     018>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

30/23

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