Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
906 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
TOR WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON...WITH SOME STRONG RADAR
CIRCULATIONS MOVG UP THE LINE. ISO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW
OF THE CELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
02/12Z LOCAL-WRF SHOWS BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL NEARLY
STATIONARY FM LAFAYETTE...GALLATIN...NASHVILLE...CENTERVILLE LINE.
TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS MORNING WITH THIS BAND.

AS FOR RIVERS...ALL MAJOR RIVERS IN FLOOD WEST MID TN WITH A
CONTINUAL RISE TDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC WAVE/LOW NOW IN THE MO BOOTHEEL...WITH WARM
FRONT OF SORTS JUST NORTH OF THE KY BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO EAST TX. CWA REMAINS IN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR... WITH STRONGER
JET STRUCTURE STILL WEST NEAR MS RIVER. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THEY
MOVE NEAR/OVER THE TN RIVER.

MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE GUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR SEVERE
TSTORMS AS WELL AS ADDITIONALLY FLOODING AS ACTIVITY IN WEST TN
TRANSLATES EAST. MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
MOVE OVER THE MID-STATE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE AS LARGE AS YESTERDAY BUT MANY RIVERS/LOW LYING LOCATIONS
..ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65...ARE ALREADY IN OR NEAR FLOOD. WILL
NOT NEED MUCH ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AGGRAVATE CURRENT SITUATION
THUS WILL CONTINUE AREAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.

WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
IN THIS EVENING...BUT THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE PLATEAU
BY 12Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAIN/ISO
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT THE
DRYING PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY. A DRY AND WARMING
TREND WILL THEN ENSUE AND REMAIN INTACT INTO FRIDAY...AT WHICH TIME
A COLD FRONT PASSES BRINGING SCT PCPN BACK THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
543 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF MORE FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. THIS
THREAT WILL CARRY INTO TONIGHT BUT LESSEN GREATLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER REPORTS
WILL BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
719 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W NASHVILLE           36.17N 86.80W
05/02/2010  E0.00 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   PUBLIC

            TORRENTIAL RAINFALL REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            WESTBOROUGH RD AND CHARLOTTE RD JUST WEST OF DOWNTOWN
            NASHVILLE.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
730 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     FLOOD            2 E ORLINDA             36.60N 86.64W
05/02/2010                   ROBERTSON          TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING OF ROADS IN THE
            HIGHWAY 49 AND 52 AREA EAST OF ORLINDA.

&&

JLAROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
737 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S NASHVILLE           36.14N 86.78W
05/02/2010  E65 MPH          DAVIDSON           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TSTM WIND GUST TO 65 MPH REPORTED AT STATE EOC IN
            NASHVILLE.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
845 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     FLOOD            10 NE GALLATIN          36.48N 86.33W
05/02/2010                   SUMNER             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ALONG BLEDSOE CREEK JUST
            NORTHEAST OF BETHPAGE...NEAR HIGHWAY 31E AND OLD WOLF
            HILL ROAD.

&&

JLAROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
921 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     FLOOD            1 W MOUNT JULIET        36.21N 86.54W
05/02/2010                   WILSON             TN   PUBLIC

            FLOODING OF DIVISION STREET AND SOUTH GREEN HILL ROAD
            JUST WEST OF MOUNT JULIET ROAD WAS REPORTED.

&&

JLAROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
929 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HENDERSONVILLE          36.29N 86.60W
05/02/2010                   SUMNER             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND A FEW HOMES DAMAGED

&&

21