Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
417 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC WAVE/LOW NOW IN THE MO BOOTHEEL...WITH WARM
FRONT OF SORTS JUST NORTH OF THE KY BORDER AND A COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO EAST TX. CWA REMAINS IN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR... WITH STRONGER
JET STRUCTURE STILL WEST NEAR MS RIVER. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AS THEY
MOVE NEAR/OVER THE TN RIVER.

MIDDLE TN EXPECTED TO BE UNDER THE GUN ONCE AGAIN TODAY FOR SEVERE
TSTORMS AS WELL AS ADDITIONALLY FLOODING AS ACTIVITY IN WEST TN
TRANSLATES EAST. MORE FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
MOVE OVER THE MID-STATE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...INCREASING THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL. MAX RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE QUITE AS LARGE AS YESTERDAY BUT MANY RIVERS/LOW LYING LOCATIONS
...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65...ARE ALREADY IN OR NEAR FLOOD. WILL
NOT NEED MUCH ADDITIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO AGGRAVATE CURRENT SITUATION
THUS WILL CONTINUE AREAL FLOOD WARNING THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.

WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
IN THIS EVENING...BUT THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
BRINGING AN END TO THE PCPN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ON THE PLATEAU
BY 12Z MONDAY...WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAIN/ISO
SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST...BUT THE
DRYING PROCESS WILL BEGIN LATER IN THE DAY. A DRY AND WARMING
TREND WILL THEN ENSUE AND REMAIN INTACT INTO FRIDAY...AT WHICH TIME
A COLD FRONT PASSES BRINGING SCT PCPN BACK THE AREA LATE IN THE
DAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  63  81  55 / 100  80  40  10
CLARKSVILLE    77  57  80  53 / 100  50  10  10
CROSSVILLE     75  62  79  52 / 100 100  40  10
COLUMBIA       79  64  81  55 / 100  80  40  10
LAWRENCEBURG   78  63  81  54 / 100  90  40  10
WAVERLY        77  59  80  54 / 100  70  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-031030-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
543 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF MORE FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY. THIS
THREAT WILL CARRY INTO TONIGHT BUT LESSEN GREATLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED. SPOTTER REPORTS
WILL BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
254 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNZ022>024-020845-
BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
254 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON AND HUMPHREYS
COUNTIES...

AT 247 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF BUENA VISTA...OR 25 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. A TORNADO WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR CARROLL COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE. IF YOU LIVE IN BENTON
COUNTY...STAY TUNED FOR A POSSIBLE WARNING.

BOYD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

TNZ056-021000-
PERRY-
351 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY COUNTY...

AT 343 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
A POSSIBLE TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARDIS...OR
17 MILES WEST OF SAVANNAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. ALTHOUGH THIS
STORM IS STILL AN HOUR AWAY FROM PERRY COUNTY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT THIS STORM MAY CONTAIN A LONG TRACK TORNADO. IF YOU LIVE IN
PERRY COUNTY...NOW IS THE TIME TO THINK ABOUT WHERE YOU WILL TAKE COVER
SHOULD A TORNADO WARNING BE ISSUED.

BOYD

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