Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
352 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE ACTION RIGHT NOW TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
THE MID STATE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED FROM JUST NORTH OF
MEMPHIS THROUGH CLARKSVILLE. THE SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND
CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7 PM AS PER THE CURRENT ISSUANCE.

UPPER RIDGING STILL PREVALENT WITH REAL GOOD LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
AND VERY HIGH SFC CAPES IN PLACE. THUS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS THE MID
STATE.

ON SATURDAY...BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SVR STORMS. THIS NEXT ROUND WILL LIKELY SHIFT THE
SVR WEATHER AREA A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WORK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BEGIN TO PULL NORTHWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO BETTER UPPER
SUPPORT TO ENHANCE OUR RAINFALL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LOWER LEVEL
INSTABILITIES HAVE BACKED OFF FOR SUNDAY SO NOT MUCH RISK OF SVR AT
THIS POINT.

THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. BEST JET ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF TN SO NOT
LOOKING AT MUCH SVR WITH THIS. QPF FROM THE MODELS MAY BE A BIT
UNDERDONE BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO FOR MON/
MON NT ATTM AS THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE AND THE
FROPA LOOKS TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MAV NUMBERS.

IN THE EXT FCST...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND SOME UPPER RIDGING
WILL BE THE PREVALENT FEATURES INTO MID WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS A GIVE US A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY SEASONAL.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      65  82  65  82 /  40  60  40  50
CLARKSVILLE    63  80  63  81 /  40  60  50  70
CROSSVILLE     62  80  62  79 /  60  50  40  50
COLUMBIA       66  83  66  83 /  40  60  50  50
LAWRENCEBURG   66  83  65  83 /  40  60  50  60
WAVERLY        64  82  64  82 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>011-
022>034-056>060-062-064-093.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
536 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND PRODUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE ALABAMA BORDER ON SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FLOOD PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS REPEATEDLY
OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             6 NNE FRANKLIN          36.01N 86.80W
05/14/2010  E1.00 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            FRANKLIN ROAD AND CONCORD ROAD NNE OF FRANKLIN.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     HAIL             BRENTWOOD               36.00N 86.79W
05/14/2010  E0.75 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TN   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY PUBLIC AT 9139 SADDLEBOW DR
            IN BRENTWOOD.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
336 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             7 SE NASHVILLE          36.10N 86.70W
05/14/2010  E0.75 INCH       DAVIDSON           TN   PUBLIC

            HAIL JUST UNDER PENNY SIZE...DIME SIZE...WAS REPORTED AT
            INTERSTATE 24 AND HARDING PLACE.

&&

STEIGERWALDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SE NASHVILLE          36.08N 86.67W
05/14/2010                   DAVIDSON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            S.O. REPORTS INTERSTATE 24 AT EXIT 57 FLOODED WITH 8
            INCHES OF WATER ON THE ROAD.

&&

JLM

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