Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1151 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.UPDATE...
REISSUED ZONES AS A SVR TSTM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT. I ALSO INCREASE HIGH TEMPS MAINLY EASTERN HALF...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING CONVECTION. STILL VERY UNSTABLE. ISOL/SCT SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE IS THE PREVAILING THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...MORNING SOUNDING FROM OHX SHOWS A HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING
INTO THE MID STATE. LIFTED INDEX IS -9.6, WITH A CAPE OF 3343
K/KG. K-INDEX IS THROUGH THE ROOF AT 44, TOTALS INDEX IS 59, AND
SWEAT INDEX IS 438. THESE ARE ALL REMARKABLY HIGH INDICATORS.

THE ONE INHIBITOR IN PLACE IS AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE 700 MB.
HOWEVER, WE'RE WARM ENOUGH ALREADY AT THE SURFACE TO BUST
THROUGH THE CAP. COMBINE THIS WITH THE ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY
THE FRONT, AND SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID STATE.
THE SPC DOES HAVE ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
TODAY, SO THE SITUATION DOES WARRANT MONITORING, ESPECIALLY AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
536 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-151045-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
536 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY AND PRODUCE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE...
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH TODAY...WILL BECOME STATIONARY NEAR
THE ALABAMA BORDER ON SATURDAY...THEN BEGIN MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY SUNDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. FLOOD PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE HEAVY THUNDERSTORM RAINS REPEATEDLY
OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HAIL             4 SE CLARKSVILLE        36.52N 87.30W
05/14/2010  E1.50 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED 1 1/2 INCH HAIL JUST SE OF CLARKSVILLE.

&&

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1159 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HAIL             7 ESE CLARKSVILLE       36.52N 87.23W
05/14/2010  E2.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         TN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED EGG SIZE HAIL AT THE WALMART IN SANGO.

&&

JLM