Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
136 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WAS VERY PRIMED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  THIS
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WEAK CAP OVER SOUTHWEST MN...EXPECTED TO ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...SO THE MAIN THREATS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ONCE THE CAP ERODE NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH INTERSTATE 94...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES TO
DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MN...WITH MOVES THE BULK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER BY 10 PM SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  LATER TONIGHT...MORE OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...EXPECT A
BACKWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN MN LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 2.00 TO 2.50
INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THIS AREA. EVEN WITH FORECAST QPF 3.00 OR
4.00 INCHES. IT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ON THE MAIN STEMS OF THE
RIVERS TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK.  GFS MODEL KEEPS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT EUROPEAN MODEL
KEEPS US WET THROUGH FRIDAY.  WL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...AS SEVERAL MINOR IMPULSES RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OF THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MN THROUGH
OMAHA AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF THIS THROUGH 09Z BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
AREA TAF SITES. LINGERING STRATUS AND OR FOG DUE TO NEAR SATURATED
GROUND WILL CONTINUE TEMPORARILY THROUGH DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SETTLE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VFR
PREVAILING DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH 13Z BEFORE
AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND DEFINES ITSELF. GUSTS OF 15 TO 20
KTS ARE PROBABLE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JVM/BAP/MTF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
106 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
190615-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
106 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH AND
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY RETURNING BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMBOY                   43.89N 94.16W
07/17/2010                   BLUE EARTH         MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

&&

KME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1147 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N WASECA              44.11N 93.50W
07/17/2010                   WASECA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN

1057 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG WASECA                  44.08N 93.50W
07/17/2010                   WASECA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN

&&

KME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1214 AM CDT SUN JUL 18 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N WHITE BEAR LAKE     45.08N 93.01W
07/17/2010                   RAMSEY             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL 6 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 61 AND
            CITY WITHOUT POWER. TIME ESTIMATED

&&

KME

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