Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 17, 2010McLeod County, Renville County, Sibley County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 17, 2010, 7:34 PM CDT for McLeod County, Renville County, Sibley County, Minnesota. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 17, 2010, 7:34 PM CDT (00:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 17, 2010, 8:15 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McLeod County, MN, Renville County, MN, Sibley County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 17, 12:28 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1779 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -139 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1367 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 268 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 618 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.1
Supercell composite: 4.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

116 
WUUS53 KMPX 180034
SVRMPX
MNC085-129-143-180115-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0138.100718T0034Z-100718T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
734 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  RENVILLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  WESTERN SIBLEY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 733 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF OLIVIA...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  BIRD ISLAND...
  FRANKLIN...
  FAIRFAX...
  GIBBON...
  STEWART...
  BROWNTON...
  FERNANDO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE
WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

&&

LAT...LON 4490 9517 4489 9480 4472 9478 4474 9427
      4446 9447 4446 9473 4466 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 271DEG 33KT 4481 9496
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

1 follow-up statement

669 
WWUS53 KMPX 180106
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
806 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

MNC085-129-143-180115-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-100718T0115Z/
MCLEOD MN-RENVILLE MN-SIBLEY MN-
806 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
SIBLEY...RENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BECHYN...OR NEAR OLIVIA...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BIRD ISLAND...FRANKLIN...FAIRFAX...STEWART...GIBBON...BROWNTON AND
  FERNANDO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4490 9517 4489 9480 4472 9478 4474 9427
      4446 9447 4446 9473 4466 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 269DEG 32KT 4471 9497
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 17, 6:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 17, 6:05 PM CDT, 1 hour 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WAS VERY PRIMED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA.  THIS
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE OVER WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WEAK CAP OVER SOUTHWEST MN...EXPECTED TO ERODE BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MN. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
ELEVATED...SO THE MAIN THREATS OVER OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ONCE THE CAP ERODE NEAR THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH INTERSTATE 94...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TORNADOES TO
DEVELOP.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MN...WITH MOVES THE BULK OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER BY 10 PM SOUTH OF OUR CWA.  LATER TONIGHT...MORE OF
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WI AND EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL MN.

HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIN OVER
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT...EXPECT A
BACKWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOPS OVER
WESTERN MN LATER THIS EVENING. PRECIP WATER VALUES OF 2.00 TO 2.50
INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THIS AREA. EVEN WITH FORECAST QPF 3.00 OR
4.00 INCHES. IT SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ON THE MAIN STEMS OF THE
RIVERS TONIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MONDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

LONG RANGE FORECAST...MODELS DIFFER ON THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH END OF THE WORK WEEK.  GFS MODEL KEEPS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY...WHILE THE PERSISTENT EUROPEAN MODEL
KEEPS US WET THROUGH FRIDAY.  WL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...AS SEVERAL MINOR IMPULSES RIDE OVER THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. TIMING OF THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CRITICAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

WITH COLD FRONT STILL WEST OF MOST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.  THE
LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. WEATHER CONDS WILL LOWER TO MARGINAL TO IFR
CONDS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS THESE SYSTEMS COME ACROSS THE
AREA OVERNIGHT.  ONCE THE STORMS EXIT THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4000-5000 FEET AGL.

KMSP...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN SODAK WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE METRO AREA OVERNIGHT.  WEATHER CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS...THEN SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 17, 7:33 PM CDT, 1 minute before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
180915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
733 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.  SOME OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
HEAVY RAIN.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY RETURNING BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL STILL BE NEEDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:03 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0406 PM     HAIL             4 W ST NICHOLAS         45.38N 94.52W
07/17/2010  M2.50 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:04 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
704 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             3 S RICHMOND            45.41N 94.52W
07/17/2010  M1.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:05 PM CDT, 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S BUCKMAN             45.87N 94.09W
07/17/2010  M81 MPH          MORRISON           MN   STORM CHASER

            ALONG HWY 27

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:10 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             3 S RICHMOND            45.41N 94.52W
07/17/2010  M1.75 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:12 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             4 W ST NICHOLAS         45.38N 94.52W
07/17/2010  M2.50 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JLM

Local storm report, Jul 17, 7:20 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
720 PM CDT SAT JUL 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0717 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PENNOCK                 45.15N 95.18W
07/17/2010                   KANDIYOHI          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DOWNED POWER LINES

&&

JLM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 17, 7:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Mille Lacs, Morrison	62 min
Jul 17, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	McLeod, Meeker, Renville, Stearns	60 min
Jul 17, 7:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Benton, Mille Lacs, Sherburne, Stearns	48 min
Jul 17, 7:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Hennepin, Sherburne, Stearns, Wright	57 min
Jul 17, 7:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chisago, Isanti, Kanabec	52 min
Jul 17, 8:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Anoka, Chisago, Hennepin, Ramsey, Sherburne, Washington and 1 more	60 min
Jul 17, 8:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Anoka, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington	35 min
Jul 17, 8:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Carver, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington	54 min
Jul 17, 8:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Anoka, Chisago, Ramsey, Washington	26 min
Jul 17, 8:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Chisago, Washington	24 min
Jul 17, 9:08 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MPX	Anoka, Dakota, Hennepin, Ramsey, Washington	6 hr
Jul 17, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kandiyohi, Meeker, Pope, Stearns	51 min
Jul 17, 9:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Dakota	50 min
Jul 17, 9:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Ramsey, Washington	23 min
Jul 17, 10:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Blue Earth, Faribault, Martin, Watonwan	64 min
Jul 17, 10:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MPX	Freeborn	62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.