Areal Flood Advisory 13, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
628 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT BECOMING WELL DEFINED VCNTY MN/I BORDER WITH AROUND
5000 J/KG ML CAPE SE SD INTO NW IA. VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THIS AREA
AS WELL. STRONG...MAINLY ELEVATED CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD SW
MN. CURRENT 850-300 /EW AND SLIGHTLY ESE/ THICKNESS FIELD
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST STORMS INITIALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. MORE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE LATER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE UPPER
DIV. THE UPPER DIV IS FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM TO DECELERATE OVER SE MN AND CENTRAL WI LATER TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS DEPENDING ON THE
OUTFLOWS THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THAT CORE METRO PROBLEMS AND A
HEAVIER RAIN AXIS THAT OCCURRED INTO WI LAST NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED
THE FFA A LITTLE FARTHER ENE.

STILL DECENT CONSISTENCY WITH THE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME CHANCE THAT WEAK VORT MAY AID SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLD CELLS NE AREAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TIN
THE WEEK. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN INTRODUCE A CHANCE. IS SUSPECT THAT MUCH OVER
A WEEK OF NO PRECIP IS HARD TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RIDGE SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE SAME DRY SIGNALS
FROM THE NAEFS AND GEFS TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
WE SHOULD GET A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER TEMPS AFTER THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THEN GRAVITATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/

IFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING DUE TO BATCH OF
TSRA MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. VERY MOIST AIR CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE
AND LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS EVENING.  THE CORE OF
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST. SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BY MID DAY SUNDAY.  CONDS
WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CLOUD HEIGHTS LIFTING TO VFR
CATEGORY.

KMSP...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CONDS IMPROVING ONCE THE SFC TROUGH
MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. SEE CURRENT TAF FOR DETAILS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
     REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

JPR/JM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
271900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
146 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO SPRINGFIELD.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SOUTH OF A LINE...FROM
APPLETON...TO BLOMKEST...TO WATERTOWN...TO NEW PRAGUE TO NORTHFIELD.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY OF THESE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME TORNADOES. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS LED TO RIVER RISES.
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THE MINNESOTA RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE DURING
THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED.

AZ

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