Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Twin Cities, MN

737 
WWUS53 KMPX 262308
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
608 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

MNC015-127-129-173-262330-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-100626T2330Z/
YELLOW MEDICINE MN-RENVILLE MN-REDWOOD MN-BROWN MN-
608 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
BROWN...REDWOOD...SOUTH CENTRAL RENVILLE AND SOUTHEASTERN YELLOW
MEDICINE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VESTA...OR 15
MILES WEST OF REDWOOD FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN WEAK CIRCULATION INDICATIVE OF A ROTATING WALL CLOUD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WITHIN THE PAST 20 MINUTES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  REDWOOD FALLS...BELVIEW...LUCAN...SEAFORTH...WABASSO...NORTH
  REDWOOD...CLEMENTS...MORTON...MORGAN...FRANKLIN...EVAN...FAIRFAX...
  DELHI...WANDA AND COBDEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9561 4459 9463 4446 9463 4445 9479
      4444 9472 4440 9467 4425 9476 4435 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 291DEG 27KT 4453 9541
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
309 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WARM FRONT BECOMING WELL DEFINED VCNTY MN/I BORDER WITH AROUND
5000 J/KG ML CAPE SE SD INTO NW IA. VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THIS AREA
AS WELL. STRONG...MAINLY ELEVATED CELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD SW
MN. CURRENT 850-300 /EW AND SLIGHTLY ESE/ THICKNESS FIELD
SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST STORMS INITIALLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MN. MORE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT QUITE POSSIBLE LATER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LARGE SCALE UPPER
DIV. THE UPPER DIV IS FORECAST TO MAXIMIZE LATER TONIGHT. THE LOW
LEVEL/850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM TO DECELERATE OVER SE MN AND CENTRAL WI LATER TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS DEPENDING ON THE
OUTFLOWS THIS EVENING...BUT GIVEN THAT CORE METRO PROBLEMS AND A
HEAVIER RAIN AXIS THAT OCCURRED INTO WI LAST NIGHT...HAVE EXPANDED
THE FFA A LITTLE FARTHER ENE.

STILL DECENT CONSISTENCY WITH THE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT SOME CHANCE THAT WEAK VORT MAY AID SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLD CELLS NE AREAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TIN
THE WEEK. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN INTRODUCE A CHANCE. IS SUSPECT THAT MUCH OVER
A WEEK OF NO PRECIP IS HARD TO COME BY THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
RIDGE SEEMS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH ALONG WITH THE SAME DRY SIGNALS
FROM THE NAEFS AND GEFS TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST INTO FRIDAY.
WE SHOULD GET A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COOLER TEMPS AFTER THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THEN GRAVITATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION... /12Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KRWF...KAXN...KSTC FORECAST TO BECOME VFR BY
16Z. BKN-OVC MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU ALSO FORECAST
TO SCT BY 16Z. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN IA WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO SOUTHERN MN.
WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN
MN FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE INTERACTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO KRWF AND KAXN TOWARD
27/00Z. THE ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO KMSP BY MID EVENING
AND REACH KEAU DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE AS WELL AS CONTAIN TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE BUT LOW ON TIMING. BROAD TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA ARE
IN PLAY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIMES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN
THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LOW MVFR IF NOT IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT
FOR KAXN AND KRWF LATE IN THE NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
AS WINDS TURN WNW.

KMSP...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A RATHER LARGE BREAK IN THE STRATUS
TO THE EAST OF KMSP. CHANHASSEN 12Z ROAB ALSO SHOWING THAT THE
LAYER OVERHEAD IS THIN. CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT THE AIRPORT WILL
BECOME VFR BY 16Z IF NOT SOONER. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING
DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING AS FIRST A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE
HIGH ON THUNDERSTORM OCCURRENCE TONIGHT BUT TIMING REMAINS IN
QUESTION UNTIL THINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
FOR A BOWING LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRPORT DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS WITH STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THIS COULD BE
IN THE 04Z-06Z TIME FRAME. SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 27/14Z WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. WIND
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-
     REDWOOD-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.

&&

JPR/AJZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
271900-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
146 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME FRAME GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM MADISON TO SPRINGFIELD.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SOUTH OF A LINE...FROM
APPLETON...TO BLOMKEST...TO WATERTOWN...TO NEW PRAGUE TO NORTHFIELD.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIE NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER BY MID
TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY CAUSING ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY OF THESE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...
HEAVY RAIN...AND SOME TORNADOES. ALSO...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN ADDITION...FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ON SUNDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA HAS LED TO RIVER RISES.
DEPENDING ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY...THE MINNESOTA RIVER MAY RISE TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE DURING
THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED.

AZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

MNZ064-262115-
YELLOW MEDICINE-
328 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

AT 324 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF HENDRICKS. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PORTER.
  ST LEO.
  SPRING CREEK.

LAT...LON 4478 9583 4463 9576 4462 9645 4463 9646
      4467 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 258DEG 36KT 4459 9640

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
501 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             CANBY                   44.71N 96.27W
06/26/2010  M0.75 INCH       YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SIZE OF DIMES...JUST STARTED.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
520 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             13 W PORTER             44.64N 96.43W
06/26/2010  M1.25 INCH       YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
536 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PORTER                  44.64N 96.17W
06/26/2010                   YELLOW MEDICINE    MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER OUTAGE ACROSS CITY.

&&

AJZ