Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

.AVIATION...(18Z ISSUANCE)...CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF. OVERNIGHT TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AIRPORTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THROUGH SUNRISE. FROM SUNRISE...THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INLAND.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS A RATHER WEAK
PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST PROGGED TO WEAKEN MOSTLY TO
THE WEST OR OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING IN THE MID LEVELS FROM MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROF LIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN
WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A BROAD SFC TO MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERING MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z
WED...THUS GIVING WAY TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. FOR TODAY EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS MS TO BREWTON TO FLORALA IN
AL. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV/MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION. /32

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF AS A WEAK TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND UPPER
LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WITH THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL START
WITH THE EARLY MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS THEN EXPAND INLAND WITH THE
SEA BREEZE. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD
GENERATE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINER OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH APPROACHES BUT CHANCES DECREASING THURSDAY EVENING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP AROUND 2 INCHES WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT
HIGH THAN THE NAM BUT MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE NORMAL OF UPPER 80S WITH
NIGHT TIME LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE HIGHER NIGHT TIME DEW
POINTS. /11

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
FRIDAY AREA WIDE WITH THE HIGHER POPS(30 AND 40%) ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SEA BREEZE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE JUST ABOUT OVER THE THE
AREA FRIDAY AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTEN OUT.
MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR EAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF THE WEEK AS
WINDS BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEW POINTS
REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S. /11
&&

.MARINE...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK STARTING OUT FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY...TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY LATE WED INTO EARLY THU DUE
TO A WEAK SFC TROF OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MS RIVER TRACKING NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE AL/NWFL COAST. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRONGER TO THE EAST COMBINED WITH THE WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRES MOVING EAST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY WED EVE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MOSTLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA BY LATE WED NIGHT CONTINUING
THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES MAY NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEK. AS THE TROF OF LOW
PRES EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK
2 TO 3 FEET BY MIDWEEK SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET AGAIN LATE IN THE
WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
FEW DAYS. NO PROBLEMS WITH LOW HUMIDITY FOR A WHILE. /11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      88  70  87  70 /  50  40  60  40
PENSACOLA   86  74  87  73 /  40  30  60  50
DESTIN      86  75  85  75 /  40  30  50  50
EVERGREEN   89  68  90  70 /  60  40  60  40
WAYNESBORO  88  67  89  67 /  50  30  50  30
CAMDEN      88  68  90  69 /  60  40  50  30
CRESTVIEW   89  69  90  70 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-021200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
500 AM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING AND SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER BY EARLY EVENING BUT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

/11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ALZ059-062-FLZ001-011845-
ESCAMBIA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-UPPER BALDWIN-
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ESCAMBIA AND BALDWIN COUNTIES...

AT 117 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF I65 AND CR 47...MOVING EAST
AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
NOKOMIS...FREEMANVILLE AND I65 AND CR 1 THROUGH 145 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
152 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ALZ060-011915-
COVINGTON-
152 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT COVINGTON COUNTY...

AT 150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF HOWELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
GREEN BAY...ESTOTHEL AND ONYCHA THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL
FREE AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.