Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
10 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY...
...SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE AREA NEXT 7 DAYS AND BRING A
VARIETY OF WEATHER--ISOLATED STORMS/WET/COLD/WINDY/DRY...

CURRENT...RADARS DETECTING ONE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS MOVING OVER OSCEOLA...BREVARD AND
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES...AND ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GENERAL MOTION WAS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH SO ANY HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD NOT LAST
VERY LONG IN ANY ONE LOCATION.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE(S) ARE SHOWING BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATER STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS
LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR RADAR CLOSELY FOR ROTATING
STORMS LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEEN CHASING IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
AS FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. BRIEF BREAK REST
OF THE MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS BELOW FLIGHT LEVEL (FL) 030
DUE TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE FL 030 AND NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW THAT FL.
IFR OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS MORE STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...

BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS. THE NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE RECORDING 1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS
WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 7 AND 8 SECONDS. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO GO
DOWNHILL THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE KEYS TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. GUSTY WINDS IN/NEAR STORMS AND
WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE MAINLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS...DESPITE MAX TEMPS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THU...HAVE
CONFIDENCE THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE NW SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SO HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING ACROSS ALL COUNTIES THU.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS MUCH OF A FACTOR FRI...THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA. AND WITH
MILDER TEMPS (THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL)...EXPECT EVEN LOWER MIN
RH VALUES...POSSIBLY BELOW 20% FRI AFTN. SO HAVE RAISED FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA-INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

WIMMER/LASCODY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
548 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-242200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
548 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST AND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE COUNTY. GREATER
CHANCES EXIST ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CAPE. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SMALL COIN SIZE
HAIL.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TREASURE COAST. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS NORTH LAKE AND INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTIES WILL FALL TO THE
MIDDLE 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND LOWER WIND CHILLS AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE MIDDLE
30S WILL BE FELT AS FAR SOUTH AS OSCEOLA AND SOUTH BREVARD
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
STORMS OVER MARINE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.

INLAND LAKES ARE NOT IMMUNE FROM THE EFFECTS OF STRONG STORMS AND
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER LAKES WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR WELL BEFORE A STORM APPROACHES YOUR AREA.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE COASTAL WATERS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE WILL BECOME SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
25 TO 30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AWAY
FROM THE COAST NEAR SHORE 4 TO 6 FEET...AND 6 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A POSSIBLE
GALE CENTER LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. A BRIEF WINDOW OF IMPROVED
BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. BUT INCREASED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

DECREASING WINDS WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SET UP A
POTENTIAL FREEZE ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND
INLAND FROM THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE SENSITIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR LONG DURATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY TRACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND BRING A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
STRONG...TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

SEDLOCK/KELLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

FLZ053-054-241530-
INDIAN RIVER-OSCEOLA-
940 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY AND MOVING
TOWARDS WESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 936 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG STORM 10 MILES WEST OF YEEHAW JUNCTION...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH. THE STORM HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THE MOTION
HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE STEERING LEVEL FLOW.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL HAIL...PEA TO DIME SIZE...WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1156 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

FLZ064-241745-
MARTIN-
1156 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 1147 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG STORM 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INDIANTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STRONG STORM INCLUDE NORTH RIVER
SHORES...PORT SALERNO AND ROCKY POINT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RL