Tornado Warning 12, NWS Milwaukee, WI

457 
WWUS53 KMKX 220143
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
843 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIC021-111-220230-
/O.CON.KMKX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-100622T0230Z/
COLUMBIA WI-SAUK WI-
843 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN SAUK AND
NORTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 839 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WISCONSIN DELLS AIRPORT...OR 6 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF WISCONSIN DELLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PORTAGE AROUND 910 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4364 8938 4347 8934 4351 8976 4363 8978
      4365 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 263DEG 21KT 4356 8967

$$

KUHLMAN

577 
WWUS53 KMKX 220156
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
856 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIC021-111-220206-
/O.CAN.KMKX.TO.W.0012.000000T0000Z-100622T0230Z/
COLUMBIA WI-SAUK WI-
856 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SAUK AND NORTHWESTERN
COLUMBIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4364 8938 4347 8934 4351 8976 4363 8978
      4365 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0156Z 267DEG 22KT 4356 8954

$$

CRAVEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR/ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF HIGHER DWPNTS
STRETCHES NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500/2000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-6KM...IS INCREASING WITH AN AREA OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS TRACKING ACROSS IOWA AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WOULD EXPECT SOME FORM OFCONVECTION TO BREAK OUT WITH THE S/W AND
IT/S ASSOC DEEP LAYER DCVA. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO THREAT OF
SEVERE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. BIGGEST CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GETTING ALL BUMPY ON THE VIS IMAGERY
ACROSS CENTRAL IA ATTM. THE BACK EDGE WILL BE CLEARING OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WILL TRY TO WALK THIS
CLEARING LINE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END
MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THE LLV JET WILL BE FOCUSED BACK WEST OVER THE
PLAINS...SO REDEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE MAY GET LUCKY ON TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY DRY DAY. BUT THERE ARE
CONCERNS THAT REQUIRE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES. THE MORNING LOOKS
QUIET WITH NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGING PASSING THROUGH. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER S/W RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND ENTERING UPPER MIDWEST. THE LLV JET ALSO ORIENTS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSPPI VALLEY AND COULD START TO SEE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD REALLY
GET TOASTY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. 925
TEMPS HIT 25C AND THIS TRANSLATES TO A SFC TEMP OF LOW 90S DRY
ADIABATICALLY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO ROLL THROUGH AS GOOD LOOKING PACIFIC
NW TROF TRACKS OVER THE TOP THE LARGER SCALE RIDGING COVERING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE LLV JET REALLY RESPONDS WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A 50 TO 60KT JET NOSING INTO NEB AND IA...EVENTUALLY
LEANING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING
SOME BY THAT TIME. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. SHOULD HAVE DEEP SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS AND MLCAPES OF
2-2.5KJ/KG.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND I THINK WE CAN SQUEEK OUT SOME DRY DAYS
HERE. STILL WARM/PLEASANT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
THIS...PER USUAL...MEANS WE HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IA WILL MOVE ACROSS WI
TNT ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
TUE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RESUMES TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT WITHIN TSTORMS. MVFR TO
IFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER THE STORMS END LATE TNT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WET CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
606 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-222315-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
606 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A MARQUETTE COUNTY TO CENTRAL KENOSHA COUNTY LINE. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING...AS A WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN IOWA
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND MAY
AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ERUPT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR
URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-222315-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
606 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...AS A WARM FRONT OVER
ILLINOIS AND IOWA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ERUPT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ERUPT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIZ056-220115-
SAUK-
720 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SAUK COUNTY...

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES WEST OF REEDSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDSBURG BY 755 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL WITHIN ONE HOURS TIME
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MBK