Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
250 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

KEEPING AN EYE ON THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING NEAR/ALONG
THE MN/IA BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AXIS OF HIGHER DWPNTS
STRETCHES NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500/2000
J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR...0-6KM...IS INCREASING WITH AN AREA OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS TRACKING ACROSS IOWA AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.
WOULD EXPECT SOME FORM OFCONVECTION TO BREAK OUT WITH THE S/W AND
IT/S ASSOC DEEP LAYER DCVA. LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK SO THREAT OF
SEVERE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. BIGGEST CONCERN IS LIKELY TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GETTING ALL BUMPY ON THE VIS IMAGERY
ACROSS CENTRAL IA ATTM. THE BACK EDGE WILL BE CLEARING OUR
WESTERN CWA BORDER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WILL TRY TO WALK THIS
CLEARING LINE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. PRECIP SHOULD END
MOST AREAS BY 06Z. THE LLV JET WILL BE FOCUSED BACK WEST OVER THE
PLAINS...SO REDEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED.

.TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE MAY GET LUCKY ON TUESDAY WITH A MOSTLY DRY DAY. BUT THERE ARE
CONCERNS THAT REQUIRE SMALL PRECIP CHANCES. THE MORNING LOOKS
QUIET WITH NARROW SHORT WAVE RIDGING PASSING THROUGH. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...THE MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER S/W RIDING OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND ENTERING UPPER MIDWEST. THE LLV JET ALSO ORIENTS
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSPPI VALLEY AND COULD START TO SEE SOME
PRECIP DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD REALLY
GET TOASTY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. 925
TEMPS HIT 25C AND THIS TRANSLATES TO A SFC TEMP OF LOW 90S DRY
ADIABATICALLY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS PROGD TO ROLL THROUGH AS GOOD LOOKING PACIFIC
NW TROF TRACKS OVER THE TOP THE LARGER SCALE RIDGING COVERING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE LLV JET REALLY RESPONDS WITH THE
NAM SHOWING A 50 TO 60KT JET NOSING INTO NEB AND IA...EVENTUALLY
LEANING INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WEAKENING
SOME BY THAT TIME. THIS LOOKS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER. SHOULD HAVE DEEP SHEAR OF 40 TO 50KTS AND MLCAPES OF
2-2.5KJ/KG.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND I THINK WE CAN SQUEEK OUT SOME DRY DAYS
HERE. STILL WARM/PLEASANT.

.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM.

LOW PRESSURE FORMS AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
THIS...PER USUAL...MEANS WE HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN IA WILL MOVE ACROSS WI
TNT ALONG WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
TUE. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RESUMES TUE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO
WED MORNING. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT WITHIN TSTORMS. MVFR TO
IFR FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER THE STORMS END LATE TNT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED WET CONDITIONS AND LGT WINDS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...CRONCE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
855 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230200-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
855 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...WILL MOVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A GREEN LAKE COUNTY TO GREEN COUNTY LINE.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ERUPT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR
URBAN AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-230200-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
855 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL ERUPT ALONG AND
NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND LAKE MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON
WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

REM
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
720 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

WIZ056-220115-
SAUK-
720 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO SAUK COUNTY...

AT 713 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 26 MILES WEST OF REEDSBURG...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDSBURG BY 755 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL WITHIN ONE HOURS TIME
PRODUCING LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
847 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0819 PM     HAIL             3 NE EDGERTON           42.87N 89.03W
06/21/2010  E1.50 INCH       DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0824 PM     HAIL             1 S FORT ATKINSON       42.91N 88.84W
06/21/2010  M1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

RKAPELA