Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CST MON NOV 22 2010

FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FOCUS ON PRECIP
THREAT TODAY INTO THIS EVE. LOW LEVEL FN VECTOR RESPONSE TO 2D FULL
WIND FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO SCT T ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
SE WI SINCE 06Z. EXPC DMSHNG TREND TO CONT IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING ON NOSE OF 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
OVER SRN IA/NRN MO. HENCE SFC BOUNDARY OVR ERN CWA WL MAKE LITTLE
MORE EWD PROGRESS ON ITS S END...AND WL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK NORTH AS
A WMFNT. LOW PRESS OVR DVLPG ERN KS WL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS ON ITS
TRACK NEWD ACROSS IA AND WI TODAY AS ENHANCED FORCING FROM COUPLED
JET MOVES ACROSS TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO MN. SECOND AREA OF 2D FWF AT THE LOW LEVELS SPREADS BACK INTO
SRN WI THIS MRNG...AND STRENGTHENS ALONG STRONG TRAILING CDFNT THIS
AFTN AND EARLY EVE. BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL.

INCREDIBLY STRONG BULK SHEAR OF 60 TO 80 KTS TODAY. MUCAPE INCREASES
TO 200 J/KG SO INSTABILITY ON LOW SIDE. HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR FEW
THIN SPOTS/HOLES IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BRIEFLY IN THE WM SECTOR
THIS AFTN OVER SRN CWA. ANY STRONGER UPDRAFT WOULD TAP INTO STRONG
SHEAR...SO ISOLATED BRIEF TOR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PROVIDED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.

3HR PRES RISE BEHIND SFC CDFNT BRIEFLY INCREASES TO 5 TO 7MB LATE
AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SETTLES TO 2 TO 5MB. 925MB WINDS OF 25 TO
35KTS WHILE 850MB WINDS REMAIN 45 TO 50KTS POST SFC CDFNT. WITH
DRYING ALOFT...FEW GUSTS OF 30 TO 35KTS POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EVE. CLDS
SLOW TO CLEAR IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TNGT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH SHOULD BRING QUIET WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH
GRADUALLY DECREASING CLOUDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO
TUESDAY...WITH 1000/500MB THICKNESSES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
530S DKM RANGE. THIS SHOULD BRING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID
30S ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BRING LOWS AROUND 20 INLAND...AND LOWER TO MID 20S NEAR THE
LAKE.

GFS AND ECWMF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH STRONG SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A DEEPENING UPPER LOW SHIFTING FROM MONTANA TO FAR WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY...THEN DEEPENING MORE AS IT MOVES TO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT DEEPENS MORE AS IT MOVES INTO
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA PER THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR PER THE QUICKER GFS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT SHIFTS INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY...AND OCCLUDES AS IT MOVES TO FAR
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT PER THE ECMWF...AND FAR NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA PER THE GFS. THE OCCLUDED LOW THEN SHIFTS SLOWLY
EAST ON THANKSGIVING DAY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SHIFTS
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...TRANSPORTING MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION ALSO ENSUES...WITH 1000/500MB THICKNESSES
RISING INTO THE MID 540S DKM RANGE. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ANY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAT OCCURS SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN. GIVEN AIR COLUMN IS STILL TRYING TO SATURATE DURING THIS
TIME...KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING.

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG
FOCUSES WARM AIR ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS RESPONSE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. 1000/500MB THICKNESSES RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 540S DKM RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING...SO KEPT ALL RAIN MENTION
ACROSS MOST THE AREA. A MIX IN THE FAR WEST IS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO
THE COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD BRING THE MIX ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. A
CHANGE TO ALL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST...WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST OF A
SHEBOYGAN TO JANESVILLE LINE SHOULD SEE RAIN...AS THERMAL PROFILES
REMAIN WARM.

COLD FRONT EXITS THE EAST THANKSGIVING MORNING...WITH A STRONG
VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITED MOISTURE WITHIN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
MEDIUM.

COLDER AIRMASS WILL THEN TAKE OVER THE AREA...AS 1000/500MB
THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE 520S DKM RANGE...AND SLOWLY RECOVER INTO
THE 530S DKM RANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
UPPER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS MOSTLY MVFR AND LOWER AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS WI TODAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE
CIGS LATER TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...SFC CDFNT WL GRADUALLY PASS ACRS LAKESHORE AREAS EARLY
THIS MRNG WHICH WL ALLOW GUSTY SFC WNDS TO DMSH. HENCE HAVE LET
SMALL CRAFT ADVY EXPIRE AT 09Z. ALSO STEEP INVERSION PREVENTING
STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO LAKE SFC. SFC FNT WL SWING NWD AGAIN
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESS OVR WI LATER TODAY. WARM
DEWPTS IN THE 50S AND LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FOR A TIME MAY ALLOW PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. TIGHTENING PRESS GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MI WL ALLOW GUSTY
WINDS TO MIX TO SFC BEGINNING LATE AFTN AND CONT INTO TUE. WL ISSUE
NEW SMALL CRAFT FOR EXPECTED STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING
WAVES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OPEN WATER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

CORRECTED TO ADD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY START AND END TIMES

TODAY/TONIGHT...11/MBK
SHORT/LONG TERM...08/WOOD
AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1222 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

WIZ047-221830-
GREEN LAKE-
1222 PM CST MON NOV 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GREEN LAKE COUNTY...

AT 1217 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 60 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MRC

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