River Flood Warning 40, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

FORECAST FOCUS ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE BOUNDARY SET UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN WI YESTERDAY AND
STAYED STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES ARE APPARENT ON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE UP ALONG THE RELATIVELY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY. THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND THE WI/IL BORDER HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SCOOT NORTHWARD WITH TIME...GIVEN THE GUSTY SFC
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SE IOWA AND NW IL.

ANOTHER...MORE POTENT UPPER WAVE WAS CROSSING MT OVERNIGHT. THAT
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A MORE POTENT TROUGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH.

THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET WAS SITUATED OVER
SOUTHERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS...COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES...WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS JUST A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH.

RUC SNGS SHOW INCREASING CAPE VALUES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WEAK
TORNADOES...WITH THE BEST SHEAR EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN LATER. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT HAIL
AND DEEPER CONVECTION. LLJ INCREASES TONIGHT...SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR.
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITHIN A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
/MCS/ WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR TONIGHT. THE CWA IS IN AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS FLOODING. WITH ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND...ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN HALF FROM NOW THROUGH
15Z SAT AND THE NORTHERN HALF GOES INTO EFFECT AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH 15Z SAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. CORFIDI VECTORS SHOW
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE EASTWARD DIRECTION...WHICH MEANS THAT
TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN.

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY IS HEAT INDEX VALUES. THESE WILL DEPEND
HIGHLY ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS AROUND TODAY. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES. THIS IS JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR
EXPECTED LONG-DURATION BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT A LINGERING WAVE PASSING
ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE THE BOUNDARY HAS A CHANCE TO SHIFT SOUTH IS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TIMING AND AGREEMENT ON
THIS POSSIBILITY IS DIFFICULT WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE LOWER 80S...BUT DEW PTS WILL
STILL BE IN THE LOW 70S...SO IT WILL STILL FEEL HUMID.

.LONG TERM...

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOW 60S. DRY WEATHER FOR A
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PD WL RESULT IN
OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND BRIEFLY LWR.  LKLY TO BE ENUF MIXING LTR
THIS MRNG AND AFTN TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS UNTIL LWRING
AGAIN TNGT OR EARLY SAT.

&&

.MARINE...LOOSER PRES GRADIENT WL RESULT IN LESS GUSTINESS
TODAY...HOWEVER IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE THIS AFTN AFTER
NUMEROUS MRNG CONVECTION WEAKENS...MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN SOME
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE LAND WHICH COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT SOUTH.
LOOKS LESS GUSTY HWVR THAN YESTERDAY AFTN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR WIZ062>072.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...11/MBK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
437 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL. STANDING
WATER REMAINS IN MANY AREAS DUE TO THURSDAYS HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL ONLY WORSEN
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HENCE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
REISSUED FOR THE AREA...MAINLY FROM SPRING GREEN TO MILWAUKEE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND NORTH OF THIS LINE BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF ENOUGH CLEARING TAKES PLACE RESULTING IN A UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE OR ARE EXPECTED
TO EXCEED FLOOD STAGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A CHANCE
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS A COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING FROM MILWAUKEE TO
MONROE AND POINTS SOUTH INCLUDING RACINE...KENOSHA AND JANESVILLE.

MANY RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-240945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
437 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 33 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY AS A COOL
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

MBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
830 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW MUKWONAGO          42.91N 88.39W
07/23/2010  E7.00 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

KUHLMAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WEST ALLIS              43.01N 88.03W
07/23/2010  M4.50 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 MILE WEST OF STATE FAIR PARK. 0.75 INCHES RAIN
            BETWEEN 7 AM AND 5 PM JULY 22. 3.75 INCHES OF RAIN
            BETWEEN 5 PM JULY 22 AND 7 AM JULY 23.

1159 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 E FRANKLIN            42.90N 87.95W
07/22/2010  M4.26 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4.26 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 5 PM TO 1159 PM. 2.0 MILES EAST
            OF FRANKLIN CENTER-MILWAUKEE COUNTY

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
919 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW GREENFIELD         42.98N 88.03W
07/23/2010  M3.46 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

1201 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILWAUKEE               43.03N 87.92W
07/23/2010  M7.01 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIMMERMAN AIRPORT. RAIN OCCURRED
            FROM 510 PM JULY 22 TO 1201 AM JULY 23.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
922 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILWAUKEE               43.03N 87.92W
07/23/2010  M7.67 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TIMMERMAN AIRPORT. 24 HOUR RAINFALL
            FROM 7 AM TO 7 AM.

&&

BHAHN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CDT FRI JUL 23 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERLOO                43.18N 88.99W
07/23/2010  M4.07 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WATERTOWN               43.19N 88.72W
07/23/2010  M4.59 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BIG BEND                42.88N 88.20W
07/23/2010  M6.23 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N PALMYRA             42.89N 88.59W
07/23/2010  M5.45 INCH       JEFFERSON          WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HR RAINFALL TOTAL

&&

KUHLMAN