River Flood Warning 28, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

OBVIOUS FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AND ANY
RESULTING FLOODING.

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT ROLLED THROUGH THIS MORNING DROPPED A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WRN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
THE AREA NORTH OF MILWAUKEE ALONG THE LAKE RECEIVED THE LIGHTEST
AMOUNTS...1/2 INCH OR SO. SO THE GROUND GOT GOOD AND SOAKED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

WE ARE IN THE RECOVERY AND REGENERATION PHASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. A SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MN WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND
MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. A COMPLICATED CONFIGURATION OF
THE COLD FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION STRETCHES
FROM NORTH OF PRAIRIE DU CHIEN IN WRN WISCONSIN...WEST ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS E/W CDFNT IS
BEGINNING TO BUBBLE UP. ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DWPNTS IN
THE MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 INCHES OVER THE
AREA. RECOVERY IS HAPPENING QUICKLY. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE TRAINING
CONVECTION AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BNDRY...WHILE THE MEAN
FLOW TAKES THEM EAST ACROSS THE CWA. EVENTUALLY...COLD POOL
DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERTAKE THE PROCESS AND WE SHOULD SEE THE
CONVECTION DIVE SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE EVENING.

UNTIL THEN...LOOKS LIKE MORE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY STRETCHED IN
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CONSIDERING ADJUSTING THE
COVERAGE TO SHARPEN UP THE FOCUS. MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE SEE
THE MAIN INITIATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM.
PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFINDENCE MEDIUM.

CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD PUT THE FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTH OF WISCONSIN. WILL HANG ONTO A
SMALL CHANCE AS RESIDUAL INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH AND A ROGUE
TRIGGER COULD SET OFF A SHOWER OR STORM.

.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

VIGOROUS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS
UPSTREAM. GOOD SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ANOTHER LARGE MCS THAT ROLLS THROUGH HERE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. DIURNAL TREND SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVING OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN WE ENTER INTO A QUIET TREND FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN. HAVE A DRY PERIOD HERE...BUT REMAINS WARM
AND ON THE HUMID SIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...COMPLEX FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. STILL PLENTY OF
STRATUS...SOME INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY LINGERING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MCS AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT NUDGING INTO FAR
SOUTHERN WI. KRFD HAS GONE VFR. SO WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE THE KEY TO
SCOURING OUT THE PERSISTENT TYPE LOW CLOUDS...HOWEVER RENEWED
CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SW WI WHERE TEMPS/DEW
POINTS ON THE RISE. SO AREAS THAT LOSE THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY SEE A
RETURN TO THESE CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND THE CONVECTION THOUGH
EVOLUTION STILL NOT CERTAIN. WILL REFINE TIMING OF NEXT STORMS AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR. FOR NOW USING THE VICINITY IDEA.

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP A BIT AHEAD OF WARM FRONT.
BEEN SEEING SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO CRITERIA. BORDERLINE CONDITIONS BUT
WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A SMALL CRAFT UNTIL 9Z FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ046-047-051-
     052-056>058-062-063-067-068.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

SHORT/LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230915-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
325 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY SHEBOYGAN...MADISON TO DUBUQUE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN UNTIL 9
PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND MOST
LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LMZ643>646-230915-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI-
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI-
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL-
325 PM CDT THU 22 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM. THERE IS AN
INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

COLLAR
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
705 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N SUN PRAIRIE         43.20N 89.23W
07/22/2010  E3.00 INCH       DANE               WI   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 2 FEET OF WATER COVERING ROADS...ROADS IMPASSABLE

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
714 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TORNADO          2 NW WIND LAKE          42.84N 88.18W
07/22/2010                   WAUKESHA           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO REPORTED AT HWY 164 AND COUNTYLINE ROAD

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
715 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW MILWAUKEE TIMMERMA 43.10N 88.05W
07/22/2010  E3.00 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            HWY 45 BETWEEN HAMPTON AND CAPITAL DR PARTIALLY CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
722 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW MADISON TRUAX AIRP 43.12N 89.36W
07/22/2010  E3.00 INCH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CARS STALLED OUT...WITH WATER OVER THE ROADS

&&

SEARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
756 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MILWAUKEE               43.03N 87.92W
07/22/2010                   MILWAUKEE          WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            7.5 INCHES OF RAIN AT WTMJ-TV STUDIO. 7 INCHES HAVE
            FALLEN IN THE LAST 2.5 HOURS.

&&

REM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
801 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

WIZ064>066-069>072-230200-
JEFFERSON-KENOSHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-WALWORTH-WAUKESHA-
801 PM CDT THU JUL 22 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA
COUNTIES...INTO WALWORTH AND RACINE COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOWNTOWN WAUKESHA TO NEAR FORT ATKINSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

ZABEL