Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
341 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM NICOLE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A COLD
FRONT SWEEPING OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH
CAROLINA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA. LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAIN ACROSS OUR
CWA...MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUING.
WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 08Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BACK TO SUNDAY SHOW
AN INCREDIBLE 16.6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ONSLOW
COUNTY...SO EVEN ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS...WATERS WILL BE SLOW TO
RECEDE. AS TROPICAL REMNANT LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT...THE RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY START TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE DEPARTING LOW WILL FINALLY PULL A
STRONG COLD FRONT OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD DROP INTO THE 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...THE FIRST TASTE OF TRUE FALL LIKE WEATHER
WILL BE FELT FRIDAY NIGHT AS MINS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 60 ON THE COAST. SATURDAY SHOULD BE PLEASANT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MINS AGAIN INTO THE 50S
MOST AREAS. NAM12 AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
PRODUCING ANOTHER LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST AND SPREADING
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THURSDAY...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO CUT OFF OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE
50S AND MAXES IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM THU...MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. NO IMPROVEMENT TO CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF BUT CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING WITH VERY SWITCHABLE WIND
DIRECTION. AFTER MIDNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT VFR
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER LOW IS FORECAST FOR FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY AND TRACK QUICKLY NORTH...PASSING BY THE
OUTER BANKS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 345 PM THU...CONSENSUS FAVORS THE 30/00Z ECMWF SO AM USING
IT FOR THE AFTERNOON MARINE PACKAGE. FIRST SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. THE 2ND LOW IS
NOW OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. THE
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVERNIGHT...PULLING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF
THE COAST. BASED ON THIS...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT
HEADLINES. GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS ENDING AT 05Z
FRIDAY. ONCE THE GALES COME DOWN...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WILL EXTEND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR OUTER BANKS
DARE/HYDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND ALLOW IT TO EXPIRE AT 00Z FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES WHERE IT IS NOW IN EFFECT. NORTHEAST
FLOW IN STORE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY THEN TRACK NORTH...PASSING JUST EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>095-098-103-104.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ047-
     080-081-093>095-098-103-104.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ095-098-103-
     104.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ047-081-095-
     103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-
     156-158.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NCZ029-044>046-079-090>092-011945-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-104-011945-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-011945-
CARTERET-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ098-011945-
ONSLOW-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
   HIGH SURF ADVISORY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ080-093-094-011945-
BEAUFORT-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ047-081-011945-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-
331 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT...ENHANCING
THE RAINFALL AND WINDS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND THIS COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POOR DRAINAGE AND AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
308 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

NCZ092-093-095-098-302000-
JONES-CRAVEN-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
308 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

...STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
AFFECT ONSLOW...CARTERET...CRAVEN AND JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM
EDT...

AT 306 PM EDT...A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG THE BEACHES OF ONSLOW AND CARTERET
COUNTIES MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR SILVERDALE...AND...STELLA AT 315 PM
EDT...MAYSVILLE...AND...DEPPE AT 325 PM EDT...POLLOCKSVILLE AT 335
PM EDT...RHEMS...AND...RIVER BEND AT 340 PM
EDT...TUSCARORA...AND...CLARK AT 345 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CAPE CARTERET...EMERALD ISLE...HALF
MOON...JACKSONVILLE...JAMES CITY...NEW BERN...NEW RIVER AIR
STATION...PINEY GREEN...PUMPKIN CENTER...RICHLANDS...SNEADS
FERRY...SWANSBORO...COMFORT...HAMMOCKS
BEACH...HUBERT...KELLUM...KUHNS...MIDWAY PARK...RIVERDALE...SALTER
PATH...AND VERONA.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

8

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
451 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     FLOOD            2 W EMERALD ISLE        34.66N 77.07W
09/30/2010                   CARTERET           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            INTERSECTION AT OCEAN DRIVE AND EMERALD DRIVE IMPASSABLE
            DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

LPAGANO