Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Miami, FL

571 
WGUS72 KMFL 012014
FFSMFL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010

FLC011-012021-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100201T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.IO/
BROWARD FL-
314 PM EST MON FEB 1 2010

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM EST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BROWARD COUNTY...

FLOODING OF ROADWAYS ACROSS COOPER CITY... WESTON... PEMBROKE 
PINES... SOUTHWEST RANCHES... AND DAVIE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AN URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY IS STILL IN 
EFFECT... HOWEVER THE RAINFALL HAS COME TO AN END... AT LEAST FOR 
NOW. IF RAINFALL MOVES INTO OR REDEVELOPS ACROSS THIS AREA AN NEW 
FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 2611 8035 2608 8020 2600 8019 2601 8034

$$

TINGLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 AM EST MON FEB 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS OF ABOUT 1.9 INCHES WITH
SATELLITE DERIVED ESTIMATES INDICATING THAT PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR
200 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES.

LATEST RADAR VOLUME SCANS INDICATE VERY SMALL LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY PRECIP...WHICH SO FAR HAVE REMAINED OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF MIAMI DADE COUNTY OVER THE
EVERGLADES. RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE PRECIP RATES OF TWO
INCHES PER HOUR AND POSSIBLY HIGHER ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE DAY TODAY....WITH LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION IS LIKELY UNDER WAY.

NO CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING AS IT IS IN
LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM EST MON FEB 1 2010/

AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE ONCE AGAIN FROM PREVIOUS TAF FCST. WIDESPREAD LIGHT-MODERATE
RAIN WITH VSBY ARND 5SM AND CIGS 2000-2500FT EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN MOVING N FROM FL STRAITS/KEYS SHOULD
ARRIVE/REDVLP NORTHWARD BY LATE MORNING WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS PSBL
AT SOME TERMINALS FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. HEAVIEST ACTIVITY
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N DURING THE AFTN HRS WITH IMPROVING
VSBYS/CIGS XPCTD BY THIS EVENING.

/STRASSBERG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM EST MON FEB 1 2010/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME INCREASING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
OF THE MAINLAND. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ATTEMPTING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS YET TO
MATERIALIZE...BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING GIVEN INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LATE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING ALOFT
ALONG THE GULF COAST.

THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...AND WILL BE MAKING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BROAD UPPER TROUGH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION AND IR SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
WHICH SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
IS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT...SHOULD LEAD
TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF MOVES NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A MORE PROMINENT MID-
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY... FEEL THAT HIGH POPS ARE STILL
WARRANTED FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST COAST...AS SOUTHEASTERLY
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MAKE STEADY PROGRESS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...
ALTHOUGH WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
CONVERGENCE...WILL NOT CALL FOR HIGHER THAN SCATTERED POPS AT
THIS TIME.

A RETURN TO COOLER/DRIER WEATHER IS STILL ANTICIPATED BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY EVENING...AS COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA...AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT UPPER LOW MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY
SATURDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER/DRIER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SCA FOR ATLANTIC MARINE ZONES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS VEERING TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...EXPECT SEAS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...BUT WILL UTILIZE SCEC HEADLINE FOR WIND SPEEDS
OF 15-20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...WHEN A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEY WILL QUICKLY VEER TO
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR SCA CRITERIA SEAS
TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.

FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH HIGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  67  80  57 / 90 80 50 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  69  82  59 / 90 70 40 10
MIAMI            76  69  83  60 / 90 60 40 10
NAPLES           75  64  76  56 / 90 60 30 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST MON FEB 1 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-021100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
930 AM EST MON FEB 1 2010

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TODAY...
...MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WILL IMPACT
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. THESE RAINS
COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ON SOME ROADWAYS AND
IN OTHER AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CREATE A MODERATE
RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AS EASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO
REPORT ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI
WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.