Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
412 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

.DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS THE FIRST CONCERN. THE NEXT
CONCERN IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND WITH A SLIGHT
PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE 15Z SREF MODEL.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES WERE TO ADD LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA...AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT 4 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH WAS NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI AND TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY STATE
LINES AND A MID/UPPER LOW WAS OVER ILLINOIS.

THROUGH 10 PM...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS THE AIR REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW. KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 50
PERCENT RANGE. WITH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...500 MB -13 TO
-16C...AND LOW WET BULB HEIGHTS AROUND 7000-9000 FT AGL...A FEW
STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL...POSSIBLY SEVERE UP TO HALF DOLLARS.
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OF 30 TO 45 KTS SUPPORT SPITTING CELLS WITH
THE LEFT MOVERS HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. THINK
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNORGANIZED...SO DOUBT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WOULD BE NEEDED. GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH 8 TO 10 PM
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT...RAINFREE AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME CLEARING
CAN BE EXPECTED. 12Z MAVMOS LOWS IN THE 50S APPEARED REASONABLE.
WOULD NOT BE COMPLETELY SURPRISED IF PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED WHERE
RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT MENTION OUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE RAINFREE AND COOL WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST. KEPT LOW
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST OF I-55...BUT THINK
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT STRONG SHEAR...30-50 KTS...AND
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING WITH A STRONG PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. APPEARS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WARM FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAY PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE AREA...PROBABLY NORTH OF I-40. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...BUT THINK THE BETTER SHOT WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY ONCE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH OF THE AREA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE STORM HAZARDS...
THOUGH SHEAR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR TORNADOES. FOR NOW...INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
POSSIBLE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAINLY RAINFREE AND VERY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS MID/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND 90 AND LOWS 65 TO
70...ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH VERY WARM/UNSTABLE
AIR...A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT
THINK CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN TOO LOW TO ADD LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY CAP THE ATMOSPHERE.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE.

DUE TO PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH RECENT RAINS...CYCLONIC
FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP MVFR CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP UNTIL 20Z
FOR MEM AND JBR WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT ENOUGH MIXING WILL RAISE
CEILINGS AFTER THAT TIME. SOME WEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS POSSIBLE
AS MIXING SHOULD INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON FOR MKL...MEM...AND
JBR. SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
500MB TROF ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WAS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS UPDATED AFD DISCUSSION AT 17Z...HOWEVER WILL NOT MENTION
AT 18Z ISSUANCE DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED OR SCATTERED COVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE AND DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THOUGHT ABOUT FOG FOR TAFS...ESPECIALLY MKL...HOWEVER FOR NOW WITH
LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS AND WINDS EXPECTED AROUND THE 5KT RANGE
HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

BELLES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  58  76  57  78 /  20   0  10  20
MKL  53  74  50  76 /  20   0   0  10
JBR  54  75  54  74 /  20   0  10  40
TUP  59  77  54  82 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-182245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
332 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
10 PM ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA. HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS IS THE MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE MAIN SEVERE STORM HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH 10 PM
THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1109 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LYNN                    36.01N 91.25W
05/16/2010                   LAWRENCE           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN AND A TREE FELL ON A CAR IN SOUTHWEST
            LAWRENCE COUNTY.

0535 PM     TORNADO          6 W STEELE              36.08N 89.95W
05/16/2010                   PEMISCOT           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CONFIRMED TOUCHDOWN OF A LANDSPOUT.

0545 PM     TORNADO          STEELE                  36.08N 89.85W
05/16/2010                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LANDSPOUTS WERE REPORTED IN STEELE AND THROUGHOUT
            PEMISCOT COUNTY.

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ELAINE              34.31N 90.92W
05/16/2010                   PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            POWER POLES DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS OFF OF HIGHWAY 20.

0610 PM     TORNADO          STEELE                  36.08N 89.85W
05/16/2010                   PEMISCOT           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LANDSPOUTS WERE REPORTED IN STEELE AND THROUGHOUT
            PEMISCOT COUNTY.

0613 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE HORNERSVILLE       36.07N 90.08W
05/16/2010                   DUNKLIN            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERE DAMAGE TO FARM EQUIPMENT ON COUNTY ROAD 735 JUST
            WEST OF HIGHWAY CC NEAR RIVES AREA. POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE KENNETT           36.16N 90.01W
05/16/2010                   DUNKLIN            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            A TOOL SHED WAS DESTROYED ON COUNTY ROAD 721 IN DUNKLIN
            COUNTY. POSSIBLE LANDSPOUT.

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FORREST CITY            35.01N 90.79W
05/16/2010                   ST. FRANCIS        AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 284 BLOCKING THE ROAD.

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COAHOMA                 34.37N 90.52W
05/16/2010                   COAHOMA            MS   PUBLIC

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED BY HIGH WINDS.

0643 PM     HAIL             BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
05/16/2010  E0.88 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   AMATEUR RADIO

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CRENSHAW                34.50N 90.19W
05/16/2010                   PANOLA             MS   POST OFFICE

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE SOUTH PART OF TOWN.

0748 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OBION                   36.26N 89.19W
05/16/2010                   OBION              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            3 INCHES OF WATER COVERING PALESTINE STREET AND HURT
            STREET.

0753 PM     HAIL             18 SW OXFORD            34.18N 89.75W
05/16/2010  E0.88 INCH       PANOLA             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E WATER VALLEY        34.16N 89.58W
05/16/2010                   YALOBUSHA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 315.

0846 PM     HAIL             TULA                    34.23N 89.37W
05/16/2010  E0.88 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0851 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OXFORD                  34.36N 89.53W
05/16/2010                   LAFAYETTE          MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            CARS STALLED IN WATER IN DOWNTOWN OXFORD.

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DYER                    36.07N 88.99W
05/16/2010                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 77 IN DYER IS FLOODED.

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DYER                    36.07N 88.99W
05/16/2010                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IS OCCURRING ON OLD DYER TRENTON ROAD.

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      OXFORD                  34.36N 89.53W
05/16/2010                   LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 TO 4 FEET OF WATER OVER VARIOUS ROADS THROUGHOUT
            OXFORD. SEVERAL HOUSES ARE FLOODED. CHANDLER ROAD IS
            COVERED WITH 3 FEET OF WATER.

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW SAMBURG            36.36N 89.38W
05/16/2010                   OBION              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHWAY 22/21 CLOSED DUE TO RESIDUAL FLOOD WATERS.

&&

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
357 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-019-020-172145-
PEMISCOT MO-GIBSON TN-LAKE TN-OBION TN-DYER TN-
357 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 50 MPH
WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIDGELY AT 357 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN DYER...GIBSON...LAKE...OBION AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HAYTI...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
451 PM CDT MON MAY 17 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             FISHER                  35.49N 90.97W
05/17/2010  E0.75 INCH       POINSETT           AR   PUBLIC

0440 PM     HAIL             YORKVILLE               36.10N 89.12W
05/17/2010  E0.88 INCH       GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

PWB