Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010/

UPDATE...

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL ENCOUNTER A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL DAYTIME INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AROUND 02Z. REFERENCE SPC SWO
MCD 585.

IN ADDITION...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE SO
EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

GRIDS UPDATED AND PRODUCTS SENT.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE MOST OF THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BEING DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING WHILE ACROSS
ARKANSAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARKANSAS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL INTO EARLY THIS EVENING IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS
AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS
BELIEVE THAT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO JUSTIFY EXTENSION OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEYOND 00Z.

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AND END BY MONDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE WITH SOLUTIONS AS AN OPEN WAVE UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TRENDED FORECAST TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
KEPT LOW POPS GOING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MS RIVER AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING. LOOK
FOR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS AS THE LINE PASSES THROUGH. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND WEST
TN AHEAD OF THE LINE.

AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN AND DIMINISH BY 05Z...LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS DROP OFF. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMKL AND KTUP.

COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO
INCREASE AND CIGS/VSBYS TO RISE QUICKLY AROUND 14-15Z.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  65  79  58  78 / 100  20  10  10
MKL  63  77  55  75 /  60  30  10  10
JBR  62  77  55  76 / 100  30  10  10
TUP  64  83  57  79 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171115-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
513 PM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
JONESBORO ARKANSAS...TO JACKSON TENNESSEE...TO BOONEVILLE
MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

BORGHOFF

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