Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION ADVANCING ACROSS ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. VFR TO
OCCASIONAL MVR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT
IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHERE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY.

THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT.
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL LEAD TO VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
ALSO...0-1KM HELICITY VALUES WERE OVER 250 M2/S2...WITH ROTATING
UPDRAFTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT OVERNIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS. ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS AND LOCALLY MORE
ARE IN THE FORECAST.

RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS. A
STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT WILL TRACK WELL TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL NOT GIVE THE FRONT MUCH PUSH. THE FRONT MAY MAKE
IT INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STALL
THERE.

A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL FORM IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES.

ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN IN ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
STATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WITH THE
FRONT EXITING SUNDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE EAST...FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING LATER
IN THE DAY.

OVERALL...TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

IT APPEARS THE NEAR TERM WILL END WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DRY AIR WILL BE OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL NOTE GENERALLY A ZONAL FLOW. VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE IS NOTED. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
INDICATED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  73  53  75 /  80  40  10  10
CAMDEN AR         64  76  53  82 /  80  40  10  10
HARRISON AR       52  70  51  74 /  70  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    65  74  54  80 /  70  30  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  75  55  79 /  80  40  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  76  54  82 /  80  50  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      61  73  49  80 /  70  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  71  49  74 /  70  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        65  74  53  77 /  80  40  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     65  76  55  81 /  80  50  20  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   59  72  51  77 /  70  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  74  52  77 /  80  40  10  10
STUTTGART AR      66  75  56  80 /  80  50  20  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-
JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

SHORT TERM...58 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NATURAL STATE THIS MORNING. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BROUGHT DEEP GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THE RESULT WAS A LARGE NUMBER OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WERE TORNADIC AND
PRODUCED DAMAGE EARLIER FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE TORNADOES REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN
FALLING OVER THE SAME AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE.

AREA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE
WEATHER SITUATION AS THE LATEST DATA IS ANALYZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES NORTHEAST
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...AS LARGE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING.

THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF ARKANSAS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS SATURDAY.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A THREAT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS STALLED FRONT. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NATURAL STATE. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF ARKANSAS...OR
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEWPORT TO MONTICELLO...COULD SEE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO BECOME A CONCERN IN THE
FOLLOWING DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED.

BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY...AS WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE COMMON...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS
THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF ARKANSAS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
ARKANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62/56

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ043>045-053>056-062-010600-
CLARK-DALLAS-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LONOKE-PULASKI-SALINE-
1230 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK...DALLAS...GRANT...HOT
SPRING...JEFFERSON...LONOKE...PULASKI AND SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 100
AM CDT...

AT 1230 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LONOKE TO
WRIGHTSVILLE TO MALVERN MUNICIPAL AIRPORT TO 7 MILES NORTH OF
GURDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

62

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE BEEBE              35.05N 91.87W
04/30/2010                   WHITE              AR   AMATEUR RADIO

            SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURE DAMAGE AND TREES DOWN ALONG JONES
            ROAD AND BROWN ROAD SOUTHEAST OF BEEBE.

&&

58