Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
610 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO APPROACH ARKANSAS ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
CLOUDS BROKE UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND HEATING HAS
OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. 18Z SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK
SHOWED WEAK CAPPING...WHICH HAS HELD SO FAR. HOWEVER...A STORM
SYSTEM WAS HEADING THROUGH NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND WILL BE THE
FORCING MECHANISM TO GET STORMS GOING BY 22Z.

0-1KM HELICITY VALUES WILL CLIMB OVER 250 M2/S2 IN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STORMS WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE
LIKELY...WITH TORNADOES EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG LONG TRACK
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS...AND THE FOCUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAIN. ONE TO FOUR INCHES OF
RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST...WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINING IN
EFFECT.

AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER IN AREAS
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUNDAY MORNING...BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. DRY AIR WILL BE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING ON FRIDAY BUT AN
INCREASE IS SEEN ALONG THE FRONT. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     58  74  52  78 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN AR         62  77  54  83 /  80  30  10  10
HARRISON AR       50  72  51  77 /  50  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    56  75  53  80 /  70  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  61  75  53  81 /  80  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     65  77  55  84 /  90  40  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      54  75  52  77 /  60  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  73  51  79 /  60  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        62  75  53  79 /  80  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     64  76  54  81 /  80  30  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  74  49  79 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         61  75  53  79 /  80  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      64  75  54  80 /  90  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

&&

AVIATION...51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PRECIPITATION WAS BECOMING ISOLATED LATE THIS MORNING...AND BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WERE ALLOWING FOR SOME HEATING. THIS WILL DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A STORM SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY IN THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND SHEAR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL TURN WITH
HEIGHT...AND THIS WILL CREATE ROTATION IN DEVELOPING STORMS AND
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE SPAWNED. A FEW STRONG AND LONG TRACK
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS INCLUDES AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF HOT SPRINGS...CONWAY AND BATESVILLE.

AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL
BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...CREATING HIGH WATER PROBLEMS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDING FROM THE WEST. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...WHICH WILL AGGRAVATE ANY HIGH WATER PROBLEMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE
TO SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

62/46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
848 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NE GOULD              34.03N 91.51W
05/01/2010                   LINCOLN            AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED TWO FUNNEL CLOUDS 4 MILES
            NORTHEAST OF GOULD.

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
901 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0858 PM     TORNADO          PENROSE                 35.18N 91.05W
05/01/2010                   WOODRUFF           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ARKANSAS STATE POLICE REPORTED TORNADO ON THE GROUND ON
            HIGHWAY 49.

&&

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
922 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ041-042-052>054-020250-
CLARK-GARLAND-HOT SPRING-MONTGOMERY-PIKE-
922 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK...GARLAND...HOT SPRING...
MONTGOMERY AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 950 PM CDT...

AT 922 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF OKOLONA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE AMITY AND ROCKWELL.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
942 PM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             2 NW STAR CITY          33.96N 91.87W
05/01/2010  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            AR   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

58

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ023-031-020330-
CONWAY-VAN BUREN-
959 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CONWAY AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES
UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JERUSALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

56

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

ARZ053-054-062-020350-
CLARK-DALLAS-HOT SPRING-
1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLARK...DALLAS AND HOT SPRING
COUNTIES UNTIL 1050 PM CDT...

AT 1004 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
DEGRAY LAKE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF ARKADELPHIA TO GURDON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

62