Tornado Warning 16, NWS Lubbock, TX

135 
WWUS54 KLUB 141931
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
231 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXC101-142000-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100614T2000Z/
COTTLE TX-
231 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
COTTLE COUNTY...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THE
MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF
SWEARINGEN...OR ABOUT 10 MILES EAST OF PADUCAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SWEARINGEN.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3417 10020 3421 10006 3401 10006 3393 10024
      3406 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 245DEG 25KT 3406 10013

$$

JAMES

620 
WWUS54 KLUB 141944
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
244 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXC101-141953-
/O.CAN.KLUB.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-100614T2000Z/
COTTLE TX-
244 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL COTTLE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LUBBOCK AT 8 0 6 7 4 5 1 2 9 0.

AT 243 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND 
GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF SWEARINGEN...ALONG THE COTTLE-FOARD COUNTY LINE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT MONDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3417 10020 3421 10006 3401 10006 3393 10024
      3406 10037
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 245DEG 25KT 3410 10003

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE MADE ITS WAY
SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
DURING THE PERIOD AS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE LINE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT CB
MENTION AT KCDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THROUGH 13Z AT KLBB.
ALSO...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LINGERING BETWEEN THE TWO
SITES...WHICH HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HELP A LINE OF CONVECTIVE
STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS KCDS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A TEMPO
FOR TSRA. FOR KLBB THE SITUATION IS SLIGHTLY MORE DIFFICULT DUE
TO THE LINE BEING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. THAT BEING
SAID STORM PROPAGATION AND BEST INSTABILITY TO THE SW COULD RESULT
IN CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM.
MEADOWS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010/

UPDATE...
TODAY/S SITUATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
COMPLEX. THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION IS ON THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS STILL BEING DRIVEN BY 2MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES IN
THE PANHANDLE...AND NOW HAS PUSHED SOUTH TO A DENVER CITY...TO
WOODROW...TO CEE VEE LINE. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE MOST RECENT NAM-WRF/RUC SOLUTIONS...NOW SHOWING
CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNDERWAY...AND GROWING UPSCALE THROUGH 18Z.
GIVEN THE EARLY INITIATION...THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL SEVERITY...HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS
SBCAPE RANGING FROM 1500-3000J/KG SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS...WHILE AOA 50KT...ARE PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY AND THIS MAY HELP PROMOTE CELL INTERACTION AND UPSCALE
GROWTH TRENDING AWAY FROM DISCRETE CELLS. THUS EXPECT THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREATS WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENT.
HOWEVER A HAIL THREAT EVOLVING TOWARD DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY
MATERIALIZE AS A DEVELOPING COMPLEX/COLD POOL CONGEALS.
ALSO...UNCERTAINTY EXIST WITH THE EXTEND OF ACTIVITY AFTER 00-03Z
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE REINFORCED BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF THE FA. THUS HAVE EDITED POP/WX GRIDS THROUGH 00Z...
BUT HAVE NOT YET MADE CHANGES THEREAFTER.

LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION PROVED VERY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A MEASURED 3.10 INCH AMOUNT AND A VERY IMPRESSIVE
0.42 INCHES IN 5 MINUTES AT TURKEY. GIVEN PROGGED PWAT VALUES OF
1.8 OVER THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY 00Z...AND LIKELIHOOD OF
TRAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
THROUGH 05Z FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010/

LONG TERM...
ANY TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING BUT VERY MOIST CONDITIONS/POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS
EXPECTED. INTERESTING SITUATION SHAPING UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS DUE TO HOW THE
PRIMARY BOUNDARY EVOLVES AND THE EXTENT OF POST-MCS STABLE
AIR-MASS AND ANY SECONDARY BOUNDARIES. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
REMNANT FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES ...LOW-LVL THETA E ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AS HEIGHT FIELDS WILL REMAIN
PERTURBED IN THE WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE AREA. NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW WITH MODERATELY SWIFT SPEEDS OF 20-30 KTS AT THE MID-LVLS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SE SFC WINDS TO LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED EVEN
FURTHER IF AND WHERE THE BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE FA. SBCAPES UP TO
3K J/KG ARE POSSIBLE AND COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR...SHOULD BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DVLPMNT WITH AN ATTENDANT SEVERE WX THREAT. A
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE BAROCLINITY AND LCL HEIGHTS. ANY
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...WEST TEXAS WILL BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING WESTWARD FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH AND MAINTAIN A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. SE
LOW-LVL FLOW WILL KEEP DRYLINE AND CONVERGENCE IN NEW MEXICO. IT
APPEARS REASONABLE THAT AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL DEVELOP IN NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT STEERING THEM TOWARD THE TX/NM
BORDER IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING HRS. UNCERTAIN IF/WHEN THE RIDGE
WILL EXPAND FAR ENOUGH WWD TO CUT THIS ACTIVITY OFF. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT SLGT CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST WED AND THU WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
MENTION FRI/SAT IN THE SAME AREA. THE WARM UP BACK INTO THE UPPER
90S STILL LOOKS ON TRACK BY THU OR FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  59  87  63  92 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  61  86  64  91 /  20  40  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     81  61  86  65  92 /  30  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     88  64  89  65  93 /  40  40  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       86  64  88  67  93 /  40  50  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  91  66  95 /  50  40  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    93  65  90  66  94 /  50  40  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     88  65  89  68  94 /  50  50  30  20  10
SPUR          90  65  90  68  94 /  60  60  30  20  10
ASPERMONT     93  70  94  70  96 /  60  60  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-030>032-035>038-040>044.

&&

20/04/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ021>044-151615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1105 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

AT 11 AM THIS MORNING...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED
ALONG A LINE FROM BROWNFIELD TO SLATON TO MATADOR TO NEAR CHILDRESS.
VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT.
MULTICELL AND A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL... DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP AS STORMS
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

FLOODING

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
EAST INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. GIVEN A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES...FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING MAY DEVELOP OVER THIS AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A LESSER THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED TUESDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ036-141800-
CROSBY-
1226 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CROSBY COUNTY...

AT 1223 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CROSBYTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY...REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ031-037-141815-
DICKENS-MOTLEY-
1250 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKENS AND MOTLEY COUNTIES...

AT 1249 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF ROARING SPRINGS...OR 10 MILES
SOUTH OF MATADOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
105 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ040-141830-
TERRY-
105 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TERRY  COUNTY...

AT 101 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNFIELD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
116 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ031-037-141845-
DICKENS-MOTLEY-
116 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKENS  AND MOTLEY  COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MATADOR...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

JAMES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
118 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

TXZ035-041-141845-
LUBBOCK-LYNN-
118 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LYNN  AND LUBBOCK  COUNTIES...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTH OF TAHOKA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
158 PM CDT MON JUN 14 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     HAIL             9 E WELLMAN             33.05N 102.27W
06/14/2010  E1.00 INCH       TERRY              TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000219

SGE