Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.SHORT TERM...
DRY-LINE IN PROCESS OF ERUPTING OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME
WITH HIGH CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR SUPPORTING SEVERE STORM THREAT. IT
IS UNCERTAIN BUT POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
A PRECIPITATION COOL POOL AND ADVANCE THE STORM THREAT FURTHER INTO
WESTERN OR EVEN CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...COULD
SEE A FEW DISCRETE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN CONVERGENCE OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AS SURFACE WARMS A BIT MORE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. IN ANY CASE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FAVORING THUNDER
CHANCES MORE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE CONTINUES
TO BE VALID. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL LATER TONIGHT
UNTIL OUTFLOWS SETTLE COMPLETELY...WITH CHANCE AN OVERNIGHT STORM
SYSTEM MAY ANCHOR ON OUTFLOWS AND GENERATE A LOCAL FLOOD THREAT AS
MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD ON WEDNESDAY AFTER DISTURBANCE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM AREA...BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY CAP AIRMASS.
LEFT-OVER BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE HEATING COULD ADD JUST THE IMPETUS
FOR A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAKENING
SHEAR...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BUT NOT COMPLETELY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
EXPECT DIMINISHING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS AS SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FROM
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. STILL...RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL EQUIVALENT
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE AIR WILL RESIDE NEAR/ACROSS THE CWA ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A SFC HIGH SPRAWLING THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. THUS...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORM IF INHIBITION CAN BE OVERCOME...BUT LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
FOCUS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT POINT TO ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY AT BEST. GIVEN VERY LIMITED COVERAGE...IF ANY...HAVE LEFT
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR NOW. IF ANY STORM DOES DEVELOP...MORE
LIMITED INSTABILITY THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED COUPLED WITH WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD TEND TO MITIGATE STORM ORGANIZATION/STRENGTH.

THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRIMARY LIFT WITH THE PASSING WAVE SHOULD REMAIN DISPLAYED WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF
THIS DISTURBANCE AND ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS CAN DRIVE A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. IF SO...THIS COULD BE A MORE
COHERENT FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. ALSO...LATEST ECMWF AND GEM
DO SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MAY APPROACH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH WOULD ALSO SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNTIL IF BECOMES MORE CLEAR IF A FRONT/OUTFLOW CAN PENETRATE
THE AREA AND WHETHER OR NOT UPPER SUPPORT WILL INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  82  61  84  59 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         63  80  61  85  61 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     64  81  61  86  61 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  82  63  85  61 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  82  63  87  62 /  30  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  81  63  84  63 /  30  20  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  81  64  86  63 /  30  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     66  85  66  88  65 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          65  82  64  89  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     66  85  66  89  66 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

TXZ021>044-261630-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR IN THIS AREA WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCATED IN
THIS AREA...AND THERE IS A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LESS DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
WEDNESDAY. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL REDUCE THE
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTER WEDNESDAY...THE
THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

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