Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA NEAR THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY SUNSET. KCDS STANDS THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP AS A +TSRAGR PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT SELY WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED
FOR THE DURATION OF THIS PERIOD WITH A WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BY EARLY TUE MORNING...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR AT
LBB...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR LATER IN THE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010/

SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING EAST OF A NEARLY STATIONARY
DRYLINE RUNNING ROUGHLY ALONG I-27 TO LUBBOCK...THEN BENDING SW INTO
SRN TERRY COUNTY WHERE THE DRYLINE INTERSECTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MOVING NW FROM STORM ACTIVITY IN THE PERMIAN BASIN...IN THIS SECTOR
THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY RETREATING TO THE NW.
CURRENTLY...THE STORMS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AGAINST REMAINING CAP
BETWEEN 600-650 MB AS INDICATED ON KAMA 18Z SOUNDING. WE DO THINK
THAT BETWEEN NOW AND 8 PM OR SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED CELLS TO BREACH THE CAP AND REALIZE CAPES UP TO ABOUT 3000
J/KG. SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE...BUT BACKED SFC WINDS ARE RESULTING
IN MODEST SR-HELICITY AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS
LOW-LVL WINDS BACK AND STRENGTHEN SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF SVR IN
THE FCST.

TONIGHT...THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT QUICKLY INTO EASTERN NM AND WE
EXPECT A RETURN OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. SW FLOW ALOFT AROUND
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST SHOULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF ENHANCED
/ALTHOUGH MODEST/ ASCENT THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW ELEVATED STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
JET...THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING NEWD ACROSS NM...BRUSHING
WTX. WITH THE DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER...AFTERNOON TSTM CHANCES
SHOULD BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. AGAIN...PROGS OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SVR
WX FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW WHERE
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. DUE TO GREATER STRATUS COVERAGE IN THE
MORNING AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES...THEY SHOULD
NOT WARM UP AS MUCH ON TUE AND WE EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
MID-80S AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RECENT DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE...THE BLOCKING
RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL BEGIN RETROGRADING BEFORE TAKING UP
RESIDENCE IN THE GREAT PLAINS BY FRI. UPSHOT OF THIS LOCALLY WILL BE
A DIMINISHING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH THE DRYLINE TAKING
REFUGE IN NM.

BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS APPEARS TO BE TUE EVENING AS MOST
MODELS SUGGEST LATE DAY TERRAIN-INDUCED CONVECTION IN NM POSSIBLY
AMPLIFYING INTO AN MCS AS THE LLJ EMERGES. PRESENCE OF RESPECTABLE
MID-LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS TIME WOULD FAVOR TRANSPORTING SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR CWA...SO CHANCE POPS CONTINUE TUE NIGHT ON
THE CAPROCK. BEYOND THIS TIME PRECIP CHANCES ARE LESS CERTAIN AS
THE STEERING FLOW SLACKENS AND HEIGHTS GRADUALLY BUILD. PERSISTENT
SELY LL FLOW WOULD FAVOR LATE DAY TSRA ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM POSSIBLY THREATENING OUR WRN ZONES BY SUNSET EACH NIGHT. BUT
WILL KEEP THIS SCENARIO RELEGATED TO WED NIGHT FOR NOW AS
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THIS TIME IS TOO GREAT. ALTHOUGH CAPPING IS
WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING PEAK HEATING WED-
THU...LACK OF FOCUSED LIFT MAY PRECLUDE STORMS ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK. HOWEVER...ANY PRE-EXISTING CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES COULD
CERTAINLY COMPENSATE FOR SYNOPTIC LIFT.

GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL INDICATE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE L/W RIDGE WILL
WEAR DOWN MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS TROF DOES
NOT INSPIRE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN ADDING PRECIP MENTION FOR SUCH A HIGH
VIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SO WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTION AT BAY EVEN THOUGH
THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MAKE A RETURN UNDER A DEEPENING SWLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  83  59  81  59 /  10  30  30  20  20
TULIA         60  83  63  80  61 /  20  20  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     61  84  64  79  61 /  20  20  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     63  85  62  81  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       66  85  63  81  63 /  20  20  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  86  62  85  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  86  63  83  63 /  20  20  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     68  86  65  85  64 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          66  85  66  78  64 /  20  20  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  85  66  82  66 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1112 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ021>044-251615-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1112 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND
EAST OF A DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF US HIGHWAY
385. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT WEST INTO NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WEAKER WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 WSW PADUCAH           33.99N 100.38W
05/24/2010                   COTTLE             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PADUCAH FD REPORTS A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000153

JORDAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
650 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

TXZ024-250015-
BRISCOE-
650 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR BRISCOE COUNTY...

AT 650 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF SILVERTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND SPEEDS UP TO 30 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
706 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             12 W PADUCAH            34.01N 100.51W
05/24/2010  E1.00 INCH       COTTLE             TX   PARK SERVICE

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE MATADOR WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT
            AREA HQ

&&

EVENT NUMBER LUB1000154

JORDAN

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