Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2010

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS St. Louis, MO

December 31, 2010Callaway County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 31, 2010, 9:41 AM CST for Callaway County, Missouri. It was in force for 34 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Dec 31, 2010, 9:41 AM CST (15:41 UTC)
Expired: Dec 31, 2010, 10:15 AM CST
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Callaway County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 112 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Dec 31, 9:57 AM CST	HAIL 0.25	Fulton, MO

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Dec 31, 7:29 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 3.7 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 764 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 569 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 69 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 535 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 546 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 2.9
Supercell composite: 10.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

019 
WUUS53 KLSX 311541
SVRLSX
MOC027-311615-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0301.101231T1541Z-101231T1615Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
941 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1015 AM CST

* AT 939 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW BLOOMFIELD...OR 6 MILES
  NORTH OF HOLTS SUMMIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FULTON...AUXVASSE...WILLIAMSBURG...SHAMROCK...CARRINGTON...
  MOKANE...STEEDMAN...REFORM...KINGDOM CITY AND PORTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3873 9220 3881 9214 3885 9215 3907 9198
      3906 9165 3871 9165 3871 9174 3868 9180
      3868 9185 3866 9188 3859 9219 3861 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 235DEG 47KT 3874 9205
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

MILLER

1 follow-up statement

182 
WWUS53 KLSX 311559
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
959 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

MOC027-311615-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-101231T1615Z/
CALLAWAY MO-
959 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CALLAWAY COUNTY UNTIL 1015 AM CST...

AT 956 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF FULTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AUXVASSE...WILLIAMSBURG AND SHAMROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 9198 3906 9165 3871 9165 3871 9174
      3868 9180 3868 9185 3884 9202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 235DEG 47KT 3887 9180
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.75IN

$$

MILLER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 31, 6:20 AM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 31, 6:20 AM CST, 3 hours 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
620 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/211 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHIFTING THE MAXIMUM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM CNTRL/
NERN MO INTO W CNTRL IL BY 12Z ON THE NOSE OF THE 60KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THE RUC SHOWS THE BULK OF THIS FORCING SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA BY 15Z. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THEREAFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A MODEST INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AS THE CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME NEUTRAL OR DOWNWARD OVER THE CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST RECOVERY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MID LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT WOULD ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS GOES ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHICH SHOWS THE FIRST CLUSTER EXITING THE
NERN CWA BY MID MORNING...A SECOND CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS SERN MO
AT MID-MORNING FOLLOWED BY WEAK DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
HOW THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EVOLVE TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL
SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.  STILL NOT SEEING A TRANSITION TO
SNOW AT THIS TIME AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEFORE IT
COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALSO NOT SEEING ANY OBVIOUS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE.

BRITT
&&

.AVIATION...
/620 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KUIN AND KCOU...WHILE ST. LOUIS
METRO AREA TO SEE A BREAK IN THE PCPN THIS MORNING. CIGS TO BE
BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CIGS
TO REMAIN MVFR TIL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH
KCOU BY 22Z...KUIN...KSUS AND KSTL BY 01Z TONIGHT. STILL NOT SURE ON
EXACT TIMING OF PCPN AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO JUST HAVE VCNTY
TS MENTION AT KUIN...KSUS AND KSTL BEGINNING AROUND 20Z. EXPECT
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT...THEN VEER TO THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO PERSIST AT
KSTL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY...BEFORE NEW STORMS FIRE AHEAD
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE VCNTY TS MENTION BY
20Z...WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH AROUND 01Z...WITH CIGS SCATTERING
OUT.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 31, 8:18 AM CST, 1 hour 23 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
818 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
818 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY. A FEW OF THEM
WILL BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST OVER 35 MPH OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH ON SATURDAY OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY.

BRITT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 31, 4:07 AM CST, 5 hours 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BLAND                   38.30N  91.63W
12/31/2010                   GASCONADE          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GASCONADE COUNTY 911 REPORTED TREES UPROOTED ALONG HOLT
            ROAD IN THE BLAND AREA. METAL ALSO FOUND IN TREES.
            UNKNOWN WHERE THE METAL CAME FROM.

&&

JPK

Local storm report, Dec 31, 4:36 AM CST, 5 hours 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
436 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND GST     BLAND                   38.30N  91.63W
12/31/2010  E60 MPH          GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE AND SIDING DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR

0236 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BLAND                   38.30N  91.63W
12/31/2010                   GASCONADE          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GASCONADE COUNTY 911 REPORTED TREES UPROOTED ALONG HOLT
            ROAD IN THE BLAND AREA. METAL ALSO FOUND IN TREES.
            UNKNOWN WHERE THE METAL CAME FROM.

&&

JPK

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 31, 2:26 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade, Osage	49 min
Dec 31, 3:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade	40 min
Dec 31, 10:08 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Audrain, Callaway, Montgomery, Pike	37 min
Dec 31, 10:11 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Gasconade	64 min
Dec 31, 10:13 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Washington	62 min
Dec 31, 10:22 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Pike	38 min
Dec 31, 10:47 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Montgomery, Pike	13 min
Dec 31, 10:56 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Crawford, Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Warren and 1 more	64 min
Dec 31, 11:00 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Pike	60 min
Dec 31, 11:15 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Lincoln, Montgomery, Pike	45 min
Dec 31, 11:22 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Franklin, Jefferson, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Washington, City of Saint Louis	53 min
Dec 31, 11:59 AM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Saint Charles, Saint Louis, City of Saint Louis	61 min
Dec 31, 12:29 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Jefferson, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	31 min
Dec 31, 12:57 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	48 min
Dec 31, 1:11 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Iron, Madison, Reynolds, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	49 min
Dec 31, 1:44 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Sainte Genevieve	61 min
Dec 31, 2:00 PM CST	Tornado Warning	LSX	Madison, Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois	60 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2010 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2010

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.