Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
211 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...
/211 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE STORMS. LATEST RUNS OF THE RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHIFTING THE MAXIMUM OF 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM CNTRL/
NERN MO INTO W CNTRL IL BY 12Z ON THE NOSE OF THE 60KT LOW LEVEL
JET. THE RUC SHOWS THE BULK OF THIS FORCING SHIFTING NORTHEAST OF
THE CWA BY 15Z. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT
THEREAFTER THAT THERE WILL BE A MODEST INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AS THE CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.
THE VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME NEUTRAL OR DOWNWARD OVER THE CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT THE SAME TIME THE SFC COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST RECOVERY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A MID LEVEL
INVERSION SETTING UP THAT WOULD ALSO ACT TO SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS GOES ALONG WITH THE RECENT HRRR SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS WHICH SHOWS THE FIRST CLUSTER EXITING THE
NERN CWA BY MID MORNING...A SECOND CLUSTER MOVING ACROSS SERN MO
AT MID-MORNING FOLLOWED BY WEAK DISCRETE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
HOW THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EVOLVE TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

STORMS WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA.  STILL NOT SEEING A TRANSITION TO
SNOW AT THIS TIME AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DRY OUT BEFORE IT
COOLS ENOUGH FOR SNOW. ALSO NOT SEEING ANY OBVIOUS ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
/1141 PM CST THU DEC 30 2010/

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF
THE 4 CORNERS AREA. CONVECTION BUBBLING NORTHEAST FROM NW AR/SW MO
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH THE MODELS. ITITIATION OF SECOND ROUND
OF CONVECTION STILL THE QUESTION. LOTS OF SHEAR...LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND SUFACE BASED LIFT. SEEMS ELEVATED STORMS MOST
LIKELY. HOWEVER MUST KEEP THE BRITT RULE IN MIND SINCE HE IS IN
THE HOUSE. FRONT SHOULD HIT COU/UIN IN A 00Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...MVFR CLOUDS SHOULD RAMAIN IN PLACE AS
CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK
IN THE RAIN FROM EARLY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF STORMS FORM AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN FRONT. ELEVATED
CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THE BEST POSSIBILITY THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS REMAINING. HAVE BROUGHT TIHE FRONT IN AT
04Z.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
114 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-311130-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
114 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

TRUETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
156 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

MOZ049>051-310830-
CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-
156 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY...EASTERN CALLAWAY AND
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CST...

AT 153 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHAMOIS...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF LINN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MONTGOMERY CITY...
  BIG SPRING...
  MINEOLA...
  NEW FLORENCE...
  PORTLAND...
  REFORM...
  AMERICUS...
  DANVILLE...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BYRD

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