Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

MCV IS POSITIONED ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN ATTM WITH A TAIL
EXTENDING S/SW INTO SWRN INDIANA. STORMS ON THE TAIL HAVE HAD A HARD
TIME GETTING GOING THIS AFTN SINCE THEY RESIDE IN AN AREA OF MIN
INSTABILITY. A MUCH HIGHER AXIS OF INSTABILITY RESIDES FROM SCNTRL
KY NWD TO NCNTRL KY WITH SB CAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WOULD EXPECT
SCT STORMS IN CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES TO FORM THERE SHORTLY. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MICROBURST DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS IN SW INDIANA/NW KY HAVE THE SAME POTENTIAL AS THEY
TRANSLATE INTO A JUICIER AMS TO THE EAST. STORMS SHUD MAX OUT IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM 20Z TO 00Z THIS AFTN AND
EVE...THOUGH MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BY ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BNDRYS WHICH SHUD BE NUMEROUS.

WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS IN THRU THE PERIOD FOR TNGT/SUN AS PREFRONTAL
OUTFLOW BNDRYS/TROFS PRECEDE SYNOPTIC SCALE CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE
THRU MOST OUR REGION SUN NIGHT AS THESE MESOSCALE FORCERS ACT ON A
VERY MOIST BNDRY LAYER AMS.

WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING OUR HEAT ADVISORY ONE MORE DAY
AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE AS HIGH OR HIGHER AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SUN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS A BIT ON SUN...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEG RANGE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO STALL NEAR
THE TN/KY BORDER. FOR MONDAY THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH THAT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL
DRY OUT WHILE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINING HIGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KY/TN
BORDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DAILY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SO
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DRIER AND A BIT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER. HOWEVER WITH MORE
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IT WILL STILL BE COOLER FOR THIS WEEK THAN
IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT DAYS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
RISE MAKING IT FEEL MUGGIER ONCE AGAIN. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL NOT GET AS MUCH OF A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
THE DRIEST AIR LOOKING TO HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY TOO FAR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

EXPECT SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FIRST NEAR BWG
AND THEN NEAR LEX AND SDF. THE SCATTERED NATURE ATTM NECESSITATES
ONLY A VCNTY REMARK AT THIS TIME. STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN BOTH STRENGTH AND NUMBER THIS EVE BUT
MAY CONTINUE IN AN ISOLATED TO SCT NATURE OVERNIGHT AS PREFRONTAL
TROFS/OUTFLOW BNDRYS PRECEDE A CDFNT THAT SHUD BE POSITIONED FROM
NWRN INDIANA TO SERN MISSOURI BY 12Z SUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCNTY
REMARK AT THIS TIME OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM........DK/11
LONG TERM.........EES
AVIATION..........DK/11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

INZ076-084-142000-
CRAWFORD-ORANGE-
320 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING THROUGH CRAWFORD AND SOUTHERN ORANGE
COUNTIES...

AT 316 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF ENGLISH...AND MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   ENGLISH...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
86 AND 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 8668 3841 8627 3839 8626 3835 8626
      3836 8627 3833 8627 3833 8629 3830 8627
      3828 8628 3822 8628 3821 8630 3827 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 277DEG 23KT 3835 8658

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

INZ089-KYZ023-142015-
HANCOCK-PERRY-
225 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING HANCOCK AND SOUTHERN PERRY
COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRANDVIEW...AND MOVING EAST
AT 15 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   HAWESVILLE...
   CANNELTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 8667 3789 8660 3786 8661 3784 8667
      3780 8669 3776 8683 3779 8684 3783 8686
      3782 8692 3788 8691 3790 8693 3789 8698
      3792 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 250DEG 13KT 3785 8688

MJ