Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
459 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR MOST OF OUR FA

A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSITIONED NEAR THE OH
RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA SWWD INTO BUTLER AND LOGAN COUNTIES
IN OUR SWRN CWA. A BRIEF TORNADO MAY HAVE TOUCHED DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN JEFF COUNTY INDIANA. THAT CIRCULATION IS NOW IN TRIMBLE
COUNTY.

WIND DAMAGE HAS LIKELY OCCURRED IN ERN BRECKINRIDGE COUNTY AND
POSSIBLY UPSTREAM DUE TO MICROBURST WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS WERE
INDICATING A WIND INDEX (WINDEX) UP TO 70 MPH WITH DOWNBURSTS.

SVR THREAT WILL CONTINUE THRU THE HEART OF OUR CWA THRU EARLY EVE AS
STORMS TAP QUITE UNSTABLE AMS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...

MCV IS POSITIONED ACRS NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IN ATTM WITH A TAIL
EXTENDING S/SW INTO SWRN INDIANA. STORMS ON THE TAIL HAVE HAD A HARD
TIME GETTING GOING THIS AFTN SINCE THEY RESIDE IN AN AREA OF MIN
INSTABILITY. A MUCH HIGHER AXIS OF INSTABILITY RESIDES FROM SCNTRL
KY NWD TO NCNTRL KY WITH SB CAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG. WOULD EXPECT
SCT STORMS IN CLUSTERS OR SMALL LINES TO FORM THERE SHORTLY. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MICROBURST DAMAGING
WINDS. STORMS IN SW INDIANA/NW KY HAVE THE SAME POTENTIAL AS THEY
TRANSLATE INTO A JUICIER AMS TO THE EAST. STORMS SHUD MAX OUT IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM 20Z TO 00Z THIS AFTN AND
EVE...THOUGH MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED BY ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW BNDRYS WHICH SHUD BE NUMEROUS.

WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS IN THRU THE PERIOD FOR TNGT/SUN AS PREFRONTAL
OUTFLOW BNDRYS/TROFS PRECEDE SYNOPTIC SCALE CDFNT THAT WILL MOVE
THRU MOST OUR REGION SUN NIGHT AS THESE MESOSCALE FORCERS ACT ON A
VERY MOIST BNDRY LAYER AMS.

WILL ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER EXTENDING OUR HEAT ADVISORY ONE MORE DAY
AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE AS HIGH OR HIGHER AS THEY POOL AHEAD OF
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SUN. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
TEMPS A BIT ON SUN...BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH INTO THE 105
TO 110 DEG RANGE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO STALL NEAR
THE TN/KY BORDER. FOR MONDAY THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTH THAT SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL
DRY OUT WHILE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STILL
SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINING HIGH THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE KY/TN
BORDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DAILY
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY. WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SO
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND
AMPLE MOISTURE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DRIER AND A BIT COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGHER. HOWEVER WITH MORE
CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IT WILL STILL BE COOLER FOR THIS WEEK THAN
IT HAS BEEN IN RECENT DAYS. DAILY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. BY MIDWEEK THE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN BE ON THE
RISE MAKING IT FEEL MUGGIER ONCE AGAIN. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL NOT GET AS MUCH OF A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH
THE DRIEST AIR LOOKING TO HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING ITS WAY TOO FAR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

EXPECT SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FIRST NEAR BWG
AND THEN NEAR LEX AND SDF. THE SCATTERED NATURE ATTM NECESSITATES
ONLY A VCNTY REMARK AT THIS TIME. STORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF MICROBURST DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

STORMS WILL BE DECREASING IN BOTH STRENGTH AND NUMBER THIS EVE BUT
MAY CONTINUE IN AN ISOLATED TO SCT NATURE OVERNIGHT AS PREFRONTAL
TROFS/OUTFLOW BNDRYS PRECEDE A CDFNT THAT SHUD BE POSITIONED FROM
NWRN INDIANA TO SERN MISSOURI BY 12Z SUN. WILL NOT INCLUDE A VCNTY
REMARK AT THIS TIME OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

MESOSCALE......DK/11
SHORT TERM.....DK/11
LONG TERM......EES
AVIATION.......DK/11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-150800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 /250 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE IN NUMBER AND
STRENGTH TOWARD SUNRISE. UNTIL THEN...THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS UP TO 70 MPH
...RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 100 DEGREE MARK THROUGH 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND STALL OUT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IN THE WARM...MUGGY AIR
MASS SUNDAY MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SMALL
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE
THIS RAIN WILL SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND TO NEAR 105 TO THE EAST.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE
PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE BLUEGRASS REGION AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY MONDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OR STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DK/EES

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