Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
742 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WEAK MCS CROSSING
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 07Z IN THE FORM OF A BOWED BROKEN SQUALL LINE.
THIS FEATURE IS MOVING DUE EAST ALONG AN AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING...GREATER INSTABILITY...AND THETA-E RIDGING. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS BEEN FALLING APART...BUT THE APEX OF THE BOW
SHOULD SURVIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THEN IT
TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO DISINTEGRATE AROUND THE TIME IT CROSSES I-65.
SO...HAVE TIMED THIS AREA OF STORMS INTO THE LMK CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING USING RADAR LOOPS.

IN SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVE STABILITY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS WE
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THEN THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
WE HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
GENERALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTH.

AGAIN TODAY THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AREAS HIT REPEATEDLY BY
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST IN A CORRIDOR
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SINCE RAINS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ALMOST NIL THERE IS NOT A NEED FOR A HEADLINE IN
THE LMK CWA AT THIS TIME...AS OPPOSED TO AREAS TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND
WEST AND UPPER 80S IN THE EAST DESPITE MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS...SO
WILL GO WITH NUMBERS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S THAT WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
READINGS AT THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEST OF I-65 AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE EAST. ALSO THERE SHOULD BE
LESS OF A BREEZE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MAKING FOR MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - TUESDAY)...

THURSDAY - SUNDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH DAY
TIME HEATING INSTABILITY...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...LOOKS LIKE MOST STORMS WILL STAY
SUB SEVERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
ENOUGH TO PUSH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH.  WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 21 DEGREES C
RANGE...FRI/SAT WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S...WE/LL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES TOPPLE THE 100 MARK AGAIN.  USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TO
BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND.

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SATURDAY.  THE SFC COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF WITH THE FROPA TO OCCUR SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY.  SOME STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FROPA WITH MODEST CAPE AND A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE APPARENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  SUNDAY MORNING LOWS OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.  ALTHOUGH WE
WON/T EXPERIENCE A BIG COOL DOWN WITH THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPS SUN
SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
90 WILL STILL BE THE RULE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY HOWEVER.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE MON/TUES FORECAST.  WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH AS WELL.
WE/LL STILL STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...BUT
DEWPTS LOOK TO DROP OFF INTO THE 60S SO NOT QUITE AS MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT ORIGINATED IN MISSOURI LAST
EVENING HAS MOVED ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AND IS CROSSING INTO
KENTUCKY AT 11Z. MOST OF THIS LINE WILL BE PAST SDF BY 12Z AND
SHOULD STAY JUST OUTSIDE OF THE BWG TAF AREA SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THOSE TWO TAFS. WILL INCLUDE IN THE LEX TAF FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF
THE FORECAST...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A CB
CLOUD TYPE. ANY STORMS SHOULD LARGELY DIE AWAY WITH SUNSET SO WILL
LEAVE CB OUT FOR TONIGHT. MAY SEE A LITTLE DAWN BR IN PLACES THAT
GET GOOD RAIN TODAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........AML
AVIATION..........13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-220745-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
333 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 /233 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT...OTHER THAN LIGHTNING...WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. ALSO...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOCATIONS GETTING
HIT BY THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF ANY
WATER ISSUES FROM HEAVY RAINS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE
RANGE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65..AND 94 TO 99 DEGREES TO THE EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOST UNSTABLE. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 THURSDAY...AND 100 TO 105 FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THAT PART OF OUR REGION ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. PLAN YOUR DAY AROUND THE HEAT...STAYING IN
AIR CONDITIONING OR SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE DURING THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

13/AML

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