Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...

TRAINING STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ACROSS THAT REGION FORMED ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE STORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. A BRISK SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. SO WE
WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THE NORTH. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
READINGS MAY NOT REACH FORECAST HIGHS BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL.

FORECAST IS ALREADY OUT.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WEAK MCS CROSSING
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AT 07Z IN THE FORM OF A BOWED BROKEN SQUALL LINE.
THIS FEATURE IS MOVING DUE EAST ALONG AN AXIS OF MOISTURE
POOLING...GREATER INSTABILITY...AND THETA-E RIDGING. THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE HAS BEEN FALLING APART...BUT THE APEX OF THE BOW
SHOULD SURVIVE A FEW MORE HOURS INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND THEN IT
TOO SHOULD BEGIN TO DISINTEGRATE AROUND THE TIME IT CROSSES I-65.
SO...HAVE TIMED THIS AREA OF STORMS INTO THE LMK CWFA EARLY THIS
MORNING USING RADAR LOOPS.

IN SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVE STABILITY BEHIND THE DEPARTING MCS WE
SHOULD SEE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THEN THIS AFTERNOON ONCE
WE HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE RENEWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
GENERALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN
THE NORTH.

AGAIN TODAY THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR AREAS HIT REPEATEDLY BY
STORMS AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRAVEL FROM WEST TO EAST IN A CORRIDOR
THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY. SINCE RAINS
OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN ALMOST NIL THERE IS NOT A NEED FOR A HEADLINE IN
THE LMK CWA AT THIS TIME...AS OPPOSED TO AREAS TO OUR EAST AND
NORTHEAST THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY MANAGED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND
WEST AND UPPER 80S IN THE EAST DESPITE MORNING RAIN AND CLOUDS...SO
WILL GO WITH NUMBERS TODAY VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S THAT WOULD PRODUCE HEAT INDEX
READINGS AT THE PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON AROUND 100 DEGREES
WEST OF I-65 AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO THE EAST. ALSO THERE SHOULD BE
LESS OF A BREEZE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MAKING FOR MORE
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY - TUESDAY)...

THURSDAY - SUNDAY...

THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH DAY
TIME HEATING INSTABILITY...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH WEAK SHEAR AND CAPE PROFILES...LOOKS LIKE MOST STORMS WILL STAY
SUB SEVERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED
ENOUGH TO PUSH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH.  WITH THE STRONG
RIDGING IN PLACE AND H85 TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 21 DEGREES C
RANGE...FRI/SAT WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S...WE/LL LIKELY SEE
HEAT INDICES TOPPLE THE 100 MARK AGAIN.  USE CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TO
BE OUTDOORS THIS WEEKEND.

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL
ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SATURDAY.  THE SFC COOL FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN PRECIP WILL
HOLD OFF WITH THE FROPA TO OCCUR SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY.  SOME STRONG STORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
FROPA WITH MODEST CAPE AND A DECENT SHEAR PROFILE APPARENT IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS.  SUNDAY MORNING LOWS OR SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE
TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.  ALTHOUGH WE
WON/T EXPERIENCE A BIG COOL DOWN WITH THIS FRONT...HIGH TEMPS SUN
SHOULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
90 WILL STILL BE THE RULE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY HOWEVER.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...

HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE MON/TUES FORECAST.  WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH...PRECIP SHOULD STAY SOUTH AS WELL.
WE/LL STILL STAY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S...BUT
DEWPTS LOOK TO DROP OFF INTO THE 60S SO NOT QUITE AS MUGGY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE BWG TAF LOCATION BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF SDF AND LEX. SO FOR NOW I WILL MENTION A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22Z AT BWG AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED. I
HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME EVENING STORMS IN A VCTS AT SDF BUT THESE
WILL MOST LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
REDUCTION IN VSBYS AT BWG AND LEX OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........JA
SHORT TERM.....13
LONG TERM......AML
AVIATION.......JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1215 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-220745-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1215 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010 /1115 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN
EARLIER TODAY. BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...
GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MOST UNSTABLE. THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 THURSDAY...AND 100 TO 105 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THAT PART OF OUR REGION ALONG AND WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65. PLAN YOUR DAY AROUND THE HEAT...STAYING IN AIR
CONDITIONING OR SHADE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE DURING THE HOT AND HUMID
AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

13/AML/JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

KYZ026-211815-
OHIO-
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS MOVING THROUGH OHIO COUNTY...

AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARTFORD...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND TWO INCHES PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN ONE HALF MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.  IF YOU LIVE NEAR A FLOOD PRONE
AREA...KEEP AN EYE ON WATER LEVELS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF FLOODING BEGINS TO OCCUR.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41
AND 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 8685 3756 8667 3745 8664 3733 8675
      3748 8698
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 305DEG 18KT 3750 8682

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0117 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BEE SPRING              37.28N  86.28W
07/21/2010  M4.00 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED ONE OF THEIR SPOTTERS IN BEE
            SPRING HAS HAD 4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE EVENT BEGAN
            APPROXIMATELY 5 HOURS AGO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000458

SCHOETTMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
141 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

KYZ081-082-211830-
CLINTON-CUMBERLAND-
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL
HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING THROUGH CLINTON AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES...

AT 1240 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURKESVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR DIME SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
   BURKESVILLE...
   ALBANY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3669 8550 3673 8548 3675 8552 3681 8553
      3686 8517 3684 8512 3686 8507 3684 8507
      3684 8505 3665 8503 3663 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 263DEG 18KT 3673 8541

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
150 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0146 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUNFISH                 37.30N  86.37W
07/21/2010  M4.75 INCH       EDMONSON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER IS PONDING ON ROADS ALSO REPORT OF 5 TO 6 INCHES
            OF RAIN ACROUND THE SUNFISH AREA.SI

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1000459

SZAPPANOS

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