Tornado Warning 72, NWS Jackson, MS

148 
WWUS54 KJAN 300556
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1156 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

MSC025-087-300606-
/O.EXP.KJAN.TO.W.0072.000000T0000Z-101130T0600Z/
CLAY MS-LOWNDES MS-
1156 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHERN LOWNDES AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND THE
WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3352 8856 3362 8867 3369 8857 3369 8849
      3367 8848 3370 8837 3373 8833 3375 8831
      3374 8824 3371 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 228DEG 47KT 3378 8828

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

.UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH 755 IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 4 AM. BEEN A BUSY EVENING AS DYNAMIC ENERGY FROM
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
ENHANCING STORMS INTO SUPERCELLS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO
RADAR COVERAGE WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
REGION. THE LASTEST LOCAL WRF WAS A LITTLE SLOW IN THE MOVEMENT OF
THE LINE...BUT IT GRADUALLY ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STORMS WILL
BE CONFINED IN THE SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DAWN. MADE NO OTHER CHANGES TO
GRIDS OR ZONES./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...350 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE
TX/LA BORDER ATTENDANT TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA GRADUALLY MOVING EAST IN VICINITY OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...EVIDENT BY 69 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR NORTH
AS MCCOMB AS OF 20Z.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 IN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MS RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE APPROACH THE REGION. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG...AS WELL
AS OUT AHEAD OF...THE FRONT AS THE IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED BE GREAT...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST 200-500J/KG OF MLCAPE TO SURVIVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE TREMENDOUS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND PROFILES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
TORNADOES AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS
FOR TIMING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SHREVEPORT BY 6 PM
...ROUGHLY ALONG A GREENWOOD TO NATCHEZ LINE BY MIDNIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY 5-6AM TOMORROW MORNING.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AL/MS
BORDER. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SUSTAINS AND EVENTUALLY DROPS TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...IN FACT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE DELTA.

MAV TEMPS WERE DROPPED FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MAV GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED OTHER THAN MINOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. /BK/

.LONG TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP OVER THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THE WEATHER BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY LARGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE RANGES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS THIS WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST
TO RISE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION OVER
THE PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
STORMINESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL SIGNALING
FOR THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF
29/21Z...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-23KTS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
TEETERING BETWEEN 700FT TO 1300FT. STRONGER STORMS WILL APPROACH GLH
BETWEEN 7-8PM TONIGHT WITH TVR/GWO WILL BE IMPACTED 8-10PM...JAN/GTR
9-MIDNIGHT...AND MEI AND HBG IMPACTED FROM MIDNIGHT-3AM.
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
PASSES WITH WINDS UP TO 60MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AND LIFT TO NEAR 2KFT FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR NEAR DAY-BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST AND
THEN CLOUD BACK UP W CEILINGS NEAR 2.5KFT ACROSS GLH/GWO/TVR AND
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. /JA/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  51  28  55 /  81  42  10   0
MERIDIAN      54  55  28  56 /  95  73  14   0
VICKSBURG     47  48  28  57 /  54  28  10   0
HATTIESBURG   60  60  30  56 /  98  90  13   0
NATCHEZ       47  48  28  56 /  78  32  10   0
GREENVILLE    44  47  28  56 /  49  17  10   0
GREENWOOD     47  48  27  54 /  69  28  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

17/BK/JA/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
302115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
308 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH. SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET. SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
AFTER 9 PM.

A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY USHERED A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. STRONG WIND FIELDS HAVE
PRODUCED INTENSE WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE ENHANCED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEP TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1021 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     TORNADO          4 SW KOSCIUSKO          33.02N 89.64W
11/29/2010                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOBILE HOMES BLOWN OFF BLOCKS WITH REPORTED NUMEROUS
            INJURIES ALONG SUDDUTH ROAD/COUNTY ROAD 4045 AND COUNTY
            ROAD 4171. MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF INJURIES IS UNKNOWN AT
            THIS TIME.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SSE KOSCIUSKO         32.95N 89.54W
11/29/2010                   ATTALA             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MOBILE HOME BLOWN OFF BLOCKS 3 MILES WEST OF HWY 43.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW THOMASTOWN         32.89N 89.71W
11/29/2010                   LEAKE              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOUSE DAMAGED ON ROME RD.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1055 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNW MADISON           32.52N 90.16W
11/29/2010                   MADISON            MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TWO TREES WERE DOWNED ACROSS DEWEES ROAD JUST WEST OF
            GLUCKSTADT.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     HAIL             4 S STARKVILLE          33.40N 88.82W
11/29/2010  E1.00 INCH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED SOUTH OF STARKVILLE.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1128 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E STARKVILLE          33.46N 88.79W
11/29/2010                   OKTIBBEHA          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT THE HWY 25 AND HWY 82
            INTERCHANGE WITH DEBRIS FLYING THROUGH THE AIR

&&

EC