Tornado Warning 63, NWS Jackson, MS

634 
WWUS54 KJAN 300321
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
921 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

LAC041-300331-
/O.CAN.KJAN.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-101130T0400Z/
FRANKLIN LA-
921 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISH IS
CANCELLED...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3198 9137 3174 9116 3145 9176 3160 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 233DEG 46KT 3153 9174

$$

LAC025-029-107-MSC001-063-300400-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0063.000000T0000Z-101130T0400Z/
TENSAS LA-CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-JEFFERSON MS-ADAMS MS-
921 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...AND NORTHERN
CONCORDIA...EAST CENTRAL CATAHOULA AND SOUTHWESTERN TENSAS
PARISHES...

AT 921 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUE TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF WILDSVILLE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  FROGMORE BY 930 PM CST...
  WEST FERRIDAY...FERRIDAY AND RIDGECREST BY 935 PM CST...
  CLAYTON AND LEE BAYOU BY 940 PM CST...
  SPOKANE BY 945 PM CST...
  WATERPROOF...HELENA AND CHURCH HILL BY 955 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT A TORNADO IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. YOU
SHOULD ACTIVATE YOUR TORNADO ACTION PLAN AND TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTION
NOW.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 9137 3174 9116 3145 9176 3160 9188
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 233DEG 46KT 3153 9174

$$

COHEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
505 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

.UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH 754 FOR MOST OF EAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL
MIDNIGHT./17/

./PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...350 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE
TX/LA BORDER ATTENDANT TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA GRADUALLY MOVING EAST IN VICINITY OF STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. NWP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...EVIDENT BY 69 DEGREE DEW POINTS ALREADY AS FAR NORTH
AS MCCOMB AS OF 20Z.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 IN MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE MS RIVER LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE APPROACH THE REGION. MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER AND
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG...AS WELL
AS OUT AHEAD OF...THE FRONT AS THE IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED BE GREAT...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR AT LEAST 200-500J/KG OF MLCAPE TO SURVIVE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE TREMENDOUS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
THESE VALUES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WIND PROFILES WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
TORNADOES AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS AS THE FRONT PASSES. AS
FOR TIMING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SHREVEPORT BY 6 PM
...ROUGHLY ALONG A GREENWOOD TO NATCHEZ LINE BY MIDNIGHT...PASSING
EAST OF THE CWA BY 5-6AM TOMORROW MORNING.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AL/MS
BORDER. HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
SUSTAINS AND EVENTUALLY DROPS TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MORNING
LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE CHILLY...IN FACT MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW THE FREEZING MARK BY SUNRISE.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL AREAS...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY IN THE DELTA.

MAV TEMPS WERE DROPPED FOR TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE MAV GUIDANCE GENERALLY
ACCEPTED OTHER THAN MINOR CHANGES FOR TONIGHT. /BK/

.LONG TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL SET UP OVER THE ARKLAMISS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL THE WEATHER BRINGING
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH FAIRLY LARGE DAILY
TEMPERATURE RANGES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS THIS WEEK.

GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST
TO RISE OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION OVER
THE PLAINS STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD. DRY AND MILDER WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THIS PATTERN...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
STORMINESS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL SIGNALING
FOR THE APPROACH OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF
29/21Z...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-23KTS WILL OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
TEETERING BETWEEN 700FT TO 1300FT. STRONGER STORMS WILL APPROACH GLH
BETWEEN 7-8PM TONIGHT WITH TVR/GWO WILL BE IMPACTED 8-10PM...JAN/GTR
9-MIDNIGHT...AND MEI AND HBG IMPACTED FROM MIDNIGHT-3AM.
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY WILL DROP TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AS THE FRONT
PASSES WITH WINDS UP TO 60MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE AND LIFT TO NEAR 2KFT FROM WEST TO
EAST FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR NEAR DAY-BREAK FROM WEST TO EAST AND
THEN CLOUD BACK UP W CEILINGS NEAR 2.5KFT ACROSS GLH/GWO/TVR AND
PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. /JA/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  51  28  55 / 100  42  10   0
MERIDIAN      54  55  28  56 / 100  73  14   0
VICKSBURG     47  48  28  57 /  86  28  10   0
HATTIESBURG   60  60  30  56 / 100  90  13   0
NATCHEZ       47  48  28  56 /  86  32  10   0
GREENVILLE    44  47  28  56 /  90  17  10   0
GREENWOOD     47  48  27  54 / 100  28  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BK/JA/EC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
302115-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
308 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH. SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET. SEVERE STORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES OCCURRING EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR
AFTER 9 PM.

A WARM FRONT THAT LIFTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY USHERED A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. STRONG WIND FIELDS HAVE
PRODUCED INTENSE WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA THAT HAVE ENHANCED THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS WILL END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND SWEEP TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

03

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
759 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE WINONA             33.48N 89.71W
11/29/2010  U50.00 MPH       MONTGOMERY         MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HWY 407.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
810 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE VICKSBURG          32.38N 90.81W
11/29/2010                   WARREN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES WERE DOWNED ALONG CULKIN RD. SEVERAL POWER
            OUTAGES REPORTED IN THE AREA.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
812 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VALLEY PARK             32.63N 90.87W
11/29/2010                   ISSAQUENA          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWNED AROUND VALLEY PARK. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF
            50 TO 70 MPH. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
816 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
11/29/2010                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STRUCTURAL AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN YAZOO CITY,
            UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE KNOWN AT THIS TIME AND WILL UPDATE.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
824 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
11/29/2010                   YAZOO              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES...TREES...AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ARE
            REPORTED WITHIN YAZOO CITY. WILL UPDATE FURTHER WITH
            ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

JALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
832 PM CST MON NOV 29 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TORNADO          YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
11/29/2010                   YAZOO              MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            ADDITIONAL STRUCURAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN YAZOO CITY WITH
            NUMEROUS LARGE OAK TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. POWER
            LINES ALSO REPORTED DOWN ALONG CENTER RIDGE ROAD.

&&

JALLEN